周在明,井哲帆,趙淑惠,韓添丁,李忠勤

1)中國(guó)地質(zhì)科學(xué)院,北京 100037;

2)中國(guó)科學(xué)院寒區(qū)旱區(qū)環(huán)境與工程研究所冰凍圈科學(xué)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室,甘肅蘭州 730000

冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng)—以天山烏魯木齊河源1號(hào)冰川為例

周在明1,2),井哲帆2),趙淑惠2),韓添丁2),李忠勤2)

1)中國(guó)地質(zhì)科學(xué)院,北京 100037;

2)中國(guó)科學(xué)院寒區(qū)旱區(qū)環(huán)境與工程研究所冰凍圈科學(xué)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室,甘肅蘭州 730000

山地冰川對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng)最為敏感,在全球變暖的大背景下山地冰川和極地冰蓋正在發(fā)生顯著的變化。冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的變化是氣候變化的結(jié)果之一。烏魯木齊河源1號(hào)冰川是中國(guó)西部山地冰川的代表,本文以1981-2007年27a的運(yùn)動(dòng)速度資料與1982年以來(lái)的季節(jié)運(yùn)動(dòng)速度資料為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合冰川物質(zhì)平衡、氣溫、降水等資料分析冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),27a來(lái)1號(hào)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度下降趨勢(shì)明顯,冬、夏季節(jié)運(yùn)動(dòng)速度波動(dòng)較大,但夏季運(yùn)動(dòng)速度較大。氣候變化通過(guò)冰川物質(zhì)平衡的改變作用于冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度,物質(zhì)平衡的持續(xù)虧損最終導(dǎo)致了冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的持續(xù)降低。夏季的高溫與降水對(duì)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度具有加速的作用。

冰川;運(yùn)動(dòng)速度;物質(zhì)平衡;氣候變化

IPCC(政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì))第四次評(píng)估報(bào)告指出,冰川對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng)非常明顯(IPCC,2007),其中山地冰川較為敏感的響應(yīng)了氣候變化(施雅風(fēng)等,2000),當(dāng)前,全球冰川急劇退縮(Klok et al.,2004;Meier et al.,2007),在我國(guó)亦十分顯著(姚檀棟等,2004;康世昌等,2007;段建平等,2009)。冰川是氣候的產(chǎn)物,氣候變化引起冰川物質(zhì)平衡和運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的變化,最終使冰川面積增減、末端前進(jìn)或退縮(秦大河,2005)。通過(guò)冰川變化特征及其波動(dòng)趨勢(shì),可以指示氣候變化(蘇珍等,2000;張寅生等,1998;Bolch,2007;Zemp et al.,2006)。事實(shí)上,冰川響應(yīng)氣候的變化首先反映在冰川的物質(zhì)平衡變化上,其次是冰川的溫度、運(yùn)動(dòng)特征等一系列變化上(李慧林等,2007)。冰川物質(zhì)平衡的改變與冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的變化是互為因果關(guān)系的(Rignot et al.,2006;Carr et al.,2007;Nakamura et al.,2007)。

國(guó)際上,冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度研究主要集中于極地冰蓋與海洋性冰川(Dowdeswell et al.,1999;Rignot et al.,2004;Trabant et al.,2003;Iken et al.,1997),國(guó)內(nèi)以西部廣布的山地冰川為主(Huang,1992;Jing,1992;井哲帆等,2002;井哲帆等,2003;Jing et al.,2006;周建民等,2009;周在明等,2009)。然而長(zhǎng)序列運(yùn)動(dòng)速度監(jiān)測(cè)的冰川比較稀少,天山烏魯木齊河源1號(hào)冰川(以下簡(jiǎn)稱1號(hào)冰川)是在我國(guó)境內(nèi)觀測(cè)資料最完善,連續(xù)性最好的冰川,運(yùn)動(dòng)及物質(zhì)平衡觀測(cè)始于 1959年(孫作哲等,1980),連續(xù)觀測(cè)始于1980 年(李忠勤等,2003)。

本文以 1981-2007年27a運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的連續(xù)觀測(cè)資料與1982年以來(lái)的季節(jié)觀測(cè)資料為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合歷年氣象、物質(zhì)平衡等資料,分析 1號(hào)冰川的運(yùn)動(dòng)特征及冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng)。

1 觀測(cè)方法

1 號(hào)冰川(43°05′N,86°49′E)位于天山中段天格爾Ⅱ峰(海拔 4476 m)北坡烏魯木齊河源,由已經(jīng)分離的東、西兩支組成(圖1)。運(yùn)動(dòng)速度及物質(zhì)平衡以花桿法進(jìn)行觀測(cè),速度計(jì)算以坐標(biāo)法計(jì)算出冰體單位時(shí)間內(nèi)的位移,位移量與時(shí)間的比值即為單位時(shí)間內(nèi)的速度值,最終得到速度值誤差＜10%。東、西支冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度為各條冰川的平均值。

圖1 烏魯木齊河源1號(hào)冰川位置圖Fig.1 Location of No.1 Glacier at the headwater of the Urumqi River

2 資料分析

對(duì)1981-2007年的運(yùn)動(dòng)速度分析發(fā)現(xiàn)(圖2),27a來(lái)1號(hào)冰川東、西兩支的運(yùn)動(dòng)速度隨時(shí)間變化呈現(xiàn)出基本一致的線性關(guān)系,運(yùn)動(dòng)趨勢(shì)線大體平行。1993年,東、西支冰川分離,運(yùn)動(dòng)速度出現(xiàn)了明顯的波動(dòng)現(xiàn)象,從1980s至今1號(hào)冰川的運(yùn)動(dòng)速度是在減緩的,27a間東、西支冰川平均每年減幅分別為0.8%和2.0%。1981-1993年間1號(hào)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度波動(dòng)較大,從1993-2007年的后15a間東、西支冰川的運(yùn)動(dòng)速度持續(xù)減緩,減幅為3.4%和7.3%。東支冰川表現(xiàn)出相對(duì)穩(wěn)定的運(yùn)動(dòng)規(guī)律,西支冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度高于東支,隨著時(shí)間的延續(xù)到2007年兩支冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度已經(jīng)非常接近。總體上,20世紀(jì)末的20a時(shí)間是1號(hào)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度發(fā)生劇烈波動(dòng)變化的時(shí)期,進(jìn)入 21世紀(jì)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度趨于穩(wěn)定。

不論是在冬季還是在夏季,西支冰川的運(yùn)動(dòng)速度明顯大于東支冰川,同一季節(jié)內(nèi)東支冰川與西支冰川具有基本相似的運(yùn)動(dòng)趨勢(shì)?？傮w上同支冰川夏季運(yùn)動(dòng)速度大約是冬季的1.2倍。1982-1994年間,東、西兩支冰川同在1987年出現(xiàn)了夏季運(yùn)動(dòng)的最大值,而冬季運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的最大值則同在1982年出現(xiàn)。近兩年來(lái),不論是冬季積累時(shí)間段內(nèi)還是夏季消融時(shí)間段內(nèi)的運(yùn)動(dòng)速度都開始回升,但是速度值仍穩(wěn)定在1982-1994年這13a的變化范圍內(nèi)(圖3)。

冰川物質(zhì)平衡記錄顯示(圖4),自20世紀(jì)80年代以來(lái),1號(hào)冰川物質(zhì)平衡有加速負(fù)平衡的趨勢(shì),年均物質(zhì)平衡為?413.63mm·a?1,其中負(fù)物質(zhì)平衡年為23年,僅有4年為弱積累年,累積物質(zhì)平衡達(dá)到?12115.4mm。近10a(1997-2006年)是1號(hào)冰川監(jiān)測(cè)史上負(fù)平衡波動(dòng)時(shí)期最長(zhǎng)并且繼續(xù)延伸的物質(zhì)虧損最強(qiáng)烈的時(shí)期。這是氣候變暖作用于冰川的具體體現(xiàn),這種波動(dòng)期繼續(xù)延伸的可能性依然很大。冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的持續(xù)降低與冰川物質(zhì)平衡的持續(xù)虧損,致使冰川末端由于冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)補(bǔ)充的物質(zhì)量遠(yuǎn)小于消融虧損的物質(zhì)量從而造成冰川退縮加劇,僅2006-2008年間,東、西支冰川分別后退 7.23 m和13.50 m。

圖2 烏魯木齊河源1號(hào)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度變化圖Fig.2 Velocity change of No.1 Glacier at the head water of the Urumqi River(1981-2007)

圖3 烏魯木齊河源1號(hào)冰川冬夏季節(jié)運(yùn)動(dòng)速度變化圖(a.西支冰川;b.東支冰川)Fig.3 Seasonal velocity of No.1 Glacier at the headwater of the Urumqi River (a-west branch;b-east branch)

3 冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng)

3.1 氣候變化的事實(shí)

從1860年有氣象儀器觀測(cè)記錄以來(lái),全球平均溫度升高了 0.6±0.2℃(秦大河,2004)。20 世紀(jì) 90 年代是近千年中最暖的年代(施雅風(fēng),2004;張晶晶等,2006)。據(jù)天山烏魯木齊河源樹輪(施雅風(fēng),1995)、敦德冰芯(姚檀棟等,1990)、古里雅冰芯(姚檀棟等,1995)等資料,中國(guó)西部山區(qū)17世紀(jì)溫度平均比現(xiàn)代低1.3 K。歷史前例,除小冰期盛時(shí)以來(lái)中國(guó)西部山區(qū)的升溫值比全球平均升溫值高1倍左右。小冰期盛期以來(lái)升溫1.4 K,冰川面積約損失6 000km2,相當(dāng)于現(xiàn)代冰川面積的23%(施雅風(fēng)等,2000)。

在全球氣候變暖的大背景下,1987年起新疆以天山中西部為主要地區(qū),出現(xiàn)了氣候轉(zhuǎn)向暖濕的強(qiáng)勁信號(hào)(施雅風(fēng)等,2002)。年平均氣溫呈現(xiàn)升溫趨勢(shì),山前平原區(qū)年均升溫幅度遠(yuǎn)大于山區(qū),冬季升溫非常明顯(蘇宏超等,2003;韓添丁等,2002)。

根據(jù)大西溝氣象站(海拔 3539 m)的觀測(cè)資料,烏魯木齊河源區(qū)的氣溫、降水自1980年以來(lái)增加趨勢(shì)明顯,1985年至今增加更甚。到2007年氣溫比1984年的最低溫度升高了 3℃,1984年以來(lái),年平均氣溫升高了 0.13℃,氣溫的連續(xù)升高使 1號(hào)冰川在1993年分為東、西兩支獨(dú)立的冰川。降水量2007年比1985年的低值增加了210mm。而與氣溫升高,降水增加相反的是冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度持續(xù)減小(圖5)。

圖4 烏魯木齊河源1號(hào)冰川物質(zhì)平衡變化圖Fig.4 Mass balance change of No.1 Glacier at the headwater of the Urumqi River (1980-2006)

圖5 烏魯木齊河源區(qū)氣溫、降水與1號(hào)冰川年平均運(yùn)動(dòng)速度變化圖Fig.5 Temperature,precipitation and velocity change of No.1 Glacier at the headwater of the Urumqi River

積溫是影響冰川消融等變化的主要因素,由于氣溫積溫代表了冰川消融期溫度T≥0℃的積溫,所以氣候積溫與冰川消融有較好的負(fù)相關(guān)性。根據(jù)王國(guó)亞等的研究(王國(guó)亞等,2005),1960-2004年間烏魯木齊河源區(qū)的年積溫上升了133℃·d,積溫的變化趨勢(shì)與氣溫的變化趨勢(shì)是一致的,從 20世紀(jì) 80年代中期開始明顯上升,此后氣候變暖呈加劇和加速發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。

3.2 冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的響應(yīng)

運(yùn)動(dòng)是冰川的基本過(guò)程,是冰川動(dòng)力學(xué)的基礎(chǔ)而氣候變化影響著冰川的動(dòng)力學(xué)機(jī)制(K??b,2005)。隨著新疆氣候由暖干向暖濕轉(zhuǎn)型,烏魯木齊河源區(qū)氣溫、降水都明顯變化。通過(guò)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度與氣溫、降水的相關(guān)性分析表明,運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的大小直接受氣溫與降水的影響較小(圖6),相關(guān)系數(shù)僅為?0.57與?0.42,通過(guò)置信度95%的檢驗(yàn)?？紤]氣溫、降水對(duì)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度影響的情況下,通過(guò)多元回歸分析建立了1號(hào)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度V(m/a)與氣溫T(℃)、降水P(mm)之間的關(guān)系式(1),校正的決定系數(shù)說(shuō)明V的總變異中可由回歸模型中自變量T、P解釋的部分所占的比例較小,對(duì)速度V的影響還有其他重要因素。而式子(1)表明氣溫(T)對(duì)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度(V)的影響比降水(P)要顯著的多。

由于氣溫與降水是影響冰川變化的最直接因素,因此可以說(shuō)氣溫、降水以及其引起的冰川物質(zhì)平衡,冰川厚度,冰川形態(tài)等的變化這些綜合因素共同影響著冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的改變。

從20世紀(jì)80年代中期以來(lái),氣溫升高,降水增大,而物質(zhì)平衡的負(fù)平衡趨勢(shì)也在加劇。通過(guò) 27a的物質(zhì)平衡與氣溫、降水的相關(guān)性分析表明:1號(hào)冰川物質(zhì)平衡主要取決于平均氣溫的高低,二者具有較好的反相關(guān)性(相關(guān)系數(shù)為?0.69),而與降水的相關(guān)性較差。烏魯木齊河源區(qū)大西溝氣象站的觀測(cè)記錄顯示從 80年代后期開始烏魯木齊河源區(qū)的氣溫持續(xù)升高,進(jìn)入90年代氣溫升高顯著,而進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)氣溫的升高趨勢(shì)更加明顯。氣溫變化導(dǎo)致1號(hào)冰川物質(zhì)平衡無(wú)論是年度值還是累計(jì)值均有負(fù)增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),物質(zhì)損失嚴(yán)重。1980-2006年27a間冰川累積物質(zhì)平衡達(dá)到?12115.4mm,相應(yīng)的厚度資料(李忠勤等,2007)表明 1981-2006年冰川中軸線剖面平均厚度減薄10-18 m。根據(jù)周在明等(周在明等,2009),對(duì) 1號(hào)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度與冰川厚度的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),厚度的改變對(duì)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的變化起著重要的作用。通過(guò)敏感性實(shí)驗(yàn),在20-120 m厚度范圍內(nèi)的1號(hào)冰川,厚度減少 1 m,冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的變化幅度在30%-40%之間,速度值的最大變化達(dá)0.4 /a。冰川物質(zhì)平衡積累量減小,冰川厚度的持續(xù)減薄,造成了冰川縱向應(yīng)力的變小最終導(dǎo)致了冰體運(yùn)動(dòng)速度減速。同時(shí)冰川物質(zhì)平衡的減少,運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的遞減促使了冰川退縮加劇。此外,1號(hào)冰川東西支的積累區(qū)差異較大,東支冰川明顯大于西支,物質(zhì)積累量的差異造成了東、西支冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的差別。

圖6 氣溫、降水與運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的相關(guān)性(年平均值)Fig.6 Relationship between temperature,precipitation change and glacier velocity (yearly average)

1980-2007年河源區(qū)冬(12月至翌年3月)、夏季3個(gè)月(6-8月)增溫2.4℃和1.7℃,降水增加6.1mm和134.2mm。冬、夏季節(jié)的增溫與降水量的增加具有較高的同步性。由于冰川活動(dòng)層升溫是一個(gè)緩慢的過(guò)程,冬季高氣溫預(yù)示著活動(dòng)層升溫開始時(shí)間提前,因而冰川表層溫度接近于 0℃的時(shí)間及整個(gè)冰川活動(dòng)層升溫比低溫年份來(lái)得早并且持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng),這一現(xiàn)象可使冰川表面消融期延長(zhǎng),在氣溫高的夏季使冰川消融更加強(qiáng)烈,從而整個(gè)冰川負(fù)物質(zhì)平衡加劇。因此冬季的升溫作用對(duì)夏季冰川消融產(chǎn)生重大的影響。另一方面,根據(jù) 1號(hào)冰川物質(zhì)平衡對(duì)氣溫降水的敏感性分析說(shuō)明,降水增加100mm,該冰川物質(zhì)平衡改變量139mm,而溫度升高1℃可使負(fù)物質(zhì)平衡增大365mm(劉時(shí)銀等,1998)。說(shuō)明降水對(duì)1號(hào)冰川物質(zhì)平衡的影響要比氣溫變化的影響小的多。由于物質(zhì)平衡的變化改變著冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度,從而可見氣溫對(duì)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的影響比降水的影響大。

夏季氣溫高并且降水多,降水量占全年的70%(楊新元等,1996),既是冰川物質(zhì)平衡的主要積累期,同時(shí)也是冰川強(qiáng)烈的消融期,尤其以 7月下旬的消融量最大。一方面夏季較高的氣溫加劇了冰川的升溫,根據(jù)我們?cè)谶\(yùn)動(dòng)速度觀測(cè)期間對(duì)冰川末端底部的溫度及形態(tài)的觀測(cè)發(fā)現(xiàn)消融季節(jié)冰川底部有融水流出,底部沙礫松散。針對(duì)這種情形我們應(yīng)用Weertmen滑動(dòng)定律及冰川動(dòng)力學(xué)模式進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果表明1號(hào)冰川在夏季強(qiáng)烈消融期間有底部滑動(dòng)現(xiàn)象,并且底部滑動(dòng)占冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的比重較大。另一方面高溫降水產(chǎn)生較大的冰面徑流,大量融水沖刷作用加劇了冰裂隙的發(fā)育改變了冰川原本穩(wěn)定的結(jié)構(gòu)。此外,冰川強(qiáng)烈的消融導(dǎo)致了雪線以下部分物質(zhì)虧損嚴(yán)重,冰川迅速減薄,冰川厚度的大幅度改變使運(yùn)動(dòng)速度加速。綜合以上三點(diǎn)夏季冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度較快。

冬季冰川溫度降低不再有滑動(dòng)現(xiàn)象。河源區(qū)冬季降雪較少,降水量?jī)H占全年的10%(焦克勤等,2004),冰川出現(xiàn)微弱的物質(zhì)積累,但由于全球變暖的大環(huán)境,河源區(qū)氣溫的不斷升高,根據(jù)實(shí)際觀測(cè)發(fā)現(xiàn)在冰舌區(qū)也存在弱的消融,冰川物質(zhì)平衡有少量虧損。總體上冰川的物質(zhì)積累量增加但由于冬季降水少,物質(zhì)平衡積累少,冰川厚度變化也不明顯。因此冬季運(yùn)動(dòng)速度緩慢。

4 結(jié)論

氣候變暖對(duì)冰川的影響表現(xiàn)在冰川后退、物質(zhì)平衡虧損、冰川厚度減薄、運(yùn)動(dòng)速率下降。冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度的變化是氣溫、降水以及由氣溫、降水引起的冰川變化等綜合因素共同影響的結(jié)果。而在眾多的影響因素中氣溫升高導(dǎo)致的冰川減薄是影響冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度減小的最重要的因素。隨著全球氣候變暖加劇不斷出現(xiàn)冰川規(guī)模的減小,有些冰川甚至消亡,冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度減小甚至最終停止運(yùn)動(dòng)。27a來(lái)1號(hào)冰川的運(yùn)動(dòng)速度是在逐年減小的,特別是從1993-2007年的后15a間東、西支冰川的運(yùn)動(dòng)速度減幅為3.4%和7.3%。20世紀(jì)末的20a時(shí)間是1號(hào)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度發(fā)生劇烈波動(dòng)變化的時(shí)期,進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度趨于穩(wěn)定。

夏季的高溫與降水對(duì)冰川運(yùn)動(dòng)速度有積極的正面影響。冰川底部產(chǎn)生滑動(dòng)、冰川徑流加劇了冰體結(jié)構(gòu)的改變、嚴(yán)重的物質(zhì)虧損等因素綜合促使1號(hào)冰川的運(yùn)動(dòng)速度總體上保持著夏季速度高冬季速度低,單條冰川夏季速度是冬季速度的1.2倍左右。

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The Response of Glacier Velocity to Climate Change:A Case Study of Urumqi Glacier No.1

ZHOU Zai-ming1,2),JING Zhe-fan2),ZHAO Shu-hui2),HAN Tian-ding2),LI Zhong-qin2)
1)Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing100037;
2)State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences,Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou,Gansu730000

Valley glacier is most sensitive to climate change under the background of global warming,and hence glaciers and ice caps of the world have changed significantly.Glacier movement is one of the results of climate variation.No.1 Glacier at the headwater of the Urumqi River is the representative of valley glaciers in western China.In this paper,based on 27 years’ (1981-2007)velocity data and seasonal velocity data in combination with glacier mass balance as well as temperature and precipitation data,the authors analyzed the response of the glacier movement to climate change.Researches show that in the 27 years the velocity tended to decrease obviously,seasonal velocity fluctuated considerably,and the velocity was higher in the summer than in the winter.Climate change acted on glacier movement by mass balance variation,and the uninterrupted loss of mass balance led to the continuous decrease of glacier velocity.It is also found that high temperature and high precipitation accelerated the glacier movement.

glacier;velocity;mass balance;climate change

P512.4;P467

A

1006-3021(2010)02-237-08

本文由國(guó)家重點(diǎn)基礎(chǔ)研究“973”發(fā)展計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(編號(hào):2007CB411501)、中國(guó)科學(xué)院創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)國(guó)際合作伙伴計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(編號(hào):CXTD-Z2005-2)、國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(編號(hào):40871036)聯(lián)合資助。

2010-01-19;改回日期:2010-03-05。

周在明,男,1980年生。中國(guó)地質(zhì)科學(xué)院在讀博士研究生。從事冰川及水資源研究工作。通訊地址:100037,北京市西城區(qū)百萬(wàn)莊大街26號(hào)。E-mail:tougaozhou@163.com。