國際科技信息

World Population To Pass 7 Billion On October 31

The world's population is projected to pass 7 billion on October 31 as it heads toward 10 billion or more by the end of the century, a new U.N. report said on Tuesday.

The report also predicted that the global population would be higher by midcentury than its last edition forecast two years ago, reaching 9.31 billion instead of 9.15 billion. It attributed this to fewer deaths as well as more births than it had anticipated.

The October date for reaching the 7 billion mark is based on calculations from current trends and Hania Zlotnik, head of the U.N. economic department's population division, said it should be taken "with a grain of salt."

Nevertheless, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) announced it would start a seven-day countdown on October 24 that would include a series of events. The world reached 6 billion people in 1998 and was 6.89 on July 1.

The report, "2010 Revision of World Population Prospects," projected there would be 10.1 billion people on the planet by 2100, the first time it has looked that far ahead. But it said that if global fertility was just half a child more per woman than it expected, that figure could be almost 16 billion.

U.N. officials said their figures were based on the assumption that fertility would taper off during the century.

But Zlotnik told a news conference, "Stabilization of the population doesn't seem to us as very probable at this moment."

Nations face a delicate balance between high fertility and booming populations, which strain food and other resources, and low fertility, which leads to aging populations and stress on social services, as some European states are already finding.

"All countries are going to age if their populations are not to explode even more than they are exploding now," Zlotnik said.

Another U.N. official,

地球人口突破70億大關

Gerhard Heilig, told the news conference that China's population, currently about 1.34 billion, would drop back below 1 billion by 2100. Russia's population would fall from 143 million now to 126 million by 2050 and 111 million in 2100, he said.

But UNFPA chief Babatunde Osotimehin said the latest global figures "underscore the urgent need to provide safe and effective family planning to the 215 million women who lack it," a point echoed by pro-birth control advocacy groups.

Suzanne Ehlers, president of Washington-based Population Action International, called the new projections "a wakeup call for governments to fulfill the global demand for contraception."

法國國家人口研究所的最新研究報告顯示，地球人口自1800年以來已經增長7倍，現在已經突破70億大關。估計到下世紀初，地球人口能夠穩(wěn)定在90億到100億左右。

該研究報告指出，1999年地球人口超過60億，而2011年這個數字已經超過70億，在短短十多年內地球人口增加了10億。雖然目前地球人口增長幅度逐漸趨緩，但趨緩的程度十分有限，據估計，2025年時地球人口將達到80億。

聯合國預測本世紀末地球人口即可達到90億到100億，而法國國家人口研究所的報告稍顯樂觀，認為直到2100年地球人口才會達到90億至100億。

人口之所以快速增長，主要是因為醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生條件的改善，特別是嬰兒死亡率的大大降低。19世紀初時人類的平均壽命僅為25歲，而今天人類平均壽命已達到68歲。從各大洲的情況看，亞洲人口占世界人口的比例超過60%，而非洲目前雖然只有10億人口，但是由于這一地區(qū)的生育率較高，到本世紀末，非洲將經歷一個人口急速增長階段，預計到2100年，僅非洲大陸人口將達到36億。

Telescope to spot aliens: World's largest eye on the sky to join quest for signs of ET

Housed in a dome almost the size of Big Ben and containing a mirror nearly half the length of a football pitch, it wasn’t exactly rocket science for astronomers to find a name for this telescope.

And, sure enough, they came up with the European Extremely Large Telescope —just about the only routine thing about the world’s largest and most powerful‘eye on the sky’.

Astronomers reckon it may finally shed light on whether there really is life somewhere out there by helping them find Earth-like rocky worlds that are home to other beings.

And British scientists might be among the first to find out — as their work is crucial to the project.

Key instruments for the telescope will be developed thanks to ￡3.5million funding from the Science and Technology Facilities Council.

The device in the Atacama Desert, Chile, will be built in a dome that covers an area the size of a stadium.

It has a sensitivity to visible and infrared light tens of times greater than any previous telescope, and is designed to help astronomers peer back to the first galaxies 14billion years ago.

This could unlock secrets of dark matter and dark energy — little-understood forces in space — to help explain how the universe evolved, according to the plans.

The British instruments are being developed by the universities of Durham and Oxford, with the UK Astronomy Technology Centre and Rutherford Appleton Laboratory.

They will include spectrometers to analyse the light received from space, as well as gadgets to help remove blurring distortions caused by the Earth’s atmosphere, a process known as adaptive optics.

This will produce pictures 15 times sharper than those taken by the Hubble space telescope, which has been in orbit since 1990.

Professor Isobel Hook, E-ELT project scientist at the University of Oxford, said: ‘This new financial commitment from the STFC means that UK astronomers will have access to the earliest scientific results from this revolutionary telescope — an exciting prospect.’

It is believed the telescope will bring hundreds of millions of pounds of benefits to British companies involved in building it.

They include a consortium based at the OpTIC Technium in North Wales, which is developing prototypes for the huge segments needed to make the 43-yard mirror.

Engineers will have to blast the top off Chile’s 9,900ft Cerro Armazones mountain peak to build the telescope if final approval is given by the European Southern Observatory’s 15 international partners in December. It is hoped the observatory will be operating by 2020.

The E-ELT will be the latest tool to join observatories operated in Chile by Europe.

The Atacama is a favoured location because the dryness and clarity of the air provide exceptional observing conditions.

Established telescopes include the Atacama Large Millimeter Array, a set of dishes that forms the highest observatory in the world at 16,000ft.

世界最大望遠鏡將在智利建造 或能助尋找外星人

歐洲南方天文臺將在智利阿塔卡瑪沙漠建造世界最大的天文望遠鏡。該望遠鏡鏡片直徑是一座足球場長度的一半，它對可見光和紅外線的靈敏度將是現存望遠鏡的十倍。天文學家希望，這座望遠鏡能幫助人們破解有助于解釋宇宙演化的暗物質秘密，甚至能探測到外星人的行蹤。

這座世界上最大望遠鏡算是目前最強大的“天空之眼”了。牛津大學教授伊索貝爾·胡克表示：“英國的天文學家將獲得最新的天文科研成果，這是一項令人激動的建造計劃。”

天文望遠鏡的選址需要晴天數高、水氣量少、空氣穩(wěn)定（天文上稱為視相度佳）；此外還必須考慮建造、運作與維修的成本，以及和其它主要望遠鏡和儀器進行聯合觀測的方便性。廣袤的阿塔卡瑪沙漠是全世界最干燥、光害最稀少的地點之一，因此是全球最佳的天文觀測點之一。據悉，工程師們將炸掉阿塔卡瑪沙漠中海拔3017米高的賽羅阿瑪遜斯山的頂部，在這里安放望遠鏡。如果建設順利，超大望遠鏡將在2020年前投入使用。

Italy scientists on trial over L'Aquila earthquake

The trial of six Italian scientists and a former government official for manslaughter over the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila has opened in the city.

The 6.3 magnitude quake devastated the city and killed 309 people.

Prosecutors allege the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake after studying hundreds of tremors that had shaken the city.

The defence argues that there is no way to predict major earthquakes even in a seismically active area.

The prosecutors accuse the seven of "negligence and imprudence... of having provided an approximate, generic and ineffective assessment of seismic activity risks as well as incomplete, imprecise and contradictory information".

As the trial opened, L'Aquila prosecutor Alfredo Rossini told reporters: "We simply want justice."

The defendants face up to 15 years in jail. Lawyers for civil plaintiffs - who include the local council - are seeking damages of 50m euros (￡45m). The civil portion of the case will be heard alongside the criminal case.

Only one of the seven defendants - who include some of Italy's most distinguished geophysicists and members of the country's civil protection agency - was present on the opening day of the trial, which has now been adjourned until 1 October.

"I thought it was important to be here because this is my land, and I also wanted to underline the professionalism and the quality of the other public officials," said Bernardo De Bernardinis, former vicepresident of the Civil Protection Agency's technical department.

"I am from Abruzzo and I owe it to the people of this area."

It can talk, see, and weave through traffc on its own: 'Car of the future' controlled entirely by computer hits the roads

It can talk, see, drive and no longer needs a human being to control it by remote.

Scientists have unveiled a 'car of the future' which weaves through traffic on its own and is completely computer-controlled.

The vehicle has even been allowed on to public roads, after being tested by researchers from Berlin's Free University around the German capital.

The vehicle maneuvers through traffic on its own using a sophisticated combination of devices, including a computer, electronics and a precision satellite navigation system in the trunk, a camera in the front, and laser scanners on the roof and around the front and rear bumpers.

Raul Rojas, the head of the university's research group for artificial intelligence, said: 'The vehicle can recognize other cars on the road, pedestrians, buildings and trees up to 70 meters (yards) around it and even see if the traffic lights ahead are red or green and react accordingly.

'In fact, the car's recognition and reaction to its environment is much faster than a human being's reaction.'

The scientists have worked on their research car, a Volkswagen Passat worth 400,000 euros ($551,800) with lots of built-in special technology, for four years.

Several other groups have also been working on such technology recently, notably Google, which has been testing a robotic Toyota Prius in Nevada.

Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, a professor for automotive economics at the University of Duisburg-Essen, said: 'There's a big trend for completely computer-controlled cars— many companies and research centers in several countries are working on it and it is hard to say, who's got the most-developed vehicle at the moment.'

Dudenhoeffer estimated that with the technology advances, it could only take another decade for the fully automatic cars to start becoming available for consumers.

'Even today's cars are often partially computercontrolled, for example when it comes to parking or emergency brakes.'

However, he said, that besides the technological issues, the legal challenges would be another issue that needed to be regulated: 'Who will be responsible when there's an accident — the owner or the passenger of the computer-controlled car or the company that produced it?'

'However, all in all, one can definitely say that computer-controlled cares will be much safer than human drivers,' Dudenhoeffer said.

'Especially if you keep in mind that most of today's accidents are caused by human error.'

a special permit from the city's security and safety controllers in June to use it in regular traffic —under the condition that a safety driver sits behind the steering wheel, even if he doesn't touch anything — not the steering wheel, gas pedals nor brakes.

On a special testing ground, the team has also been allowed to let the car run without anyone on board.

'This kind of technology is the future of mobility,' Rojas said, who had a more conservative estimate than Dudenhoeffer, saying that it may be 30 to 40 years before they become available to the average consumer.

The key to the automobile's intelligence is in the way the computer program runs.

'In the beginning we had trouble with the robotic driving style of the car,' said Rojas. 'But we've worked on the programming and now its driving style is as smooth as a human being.'

Rojas estimates that once the technology — specifically the sensors — gets less expensive, such cars will eventually conquer the roads.

'It is similar to the beginnings of the computers: 40 years ago, only research labs could afford computers, now everybody is walking around with a computer in his pocket.'

Ideally, the car will respond to orders by remote control, for example on an iPad or an iPhone. With a click or a touch, the passenger can call the car to his personal location and then order the car to drop him off at his desired destination.

'This kind of car is actually perfect for car sharing,' said Rojas. 'There will be no more need for owning a car — once the automobile has dropped off its passenger it will drive on to the next passenger.'

德國成功測試全自動汽車 無人駕駛穿行自如

從前只有在影視作品中才能見到的全自動汽車已經成為現實。據英國《每日郵報》9月20日報道，德國科學家近日剛剛在柏林的街道上試驗了一款完全由電腦控制的汽車，并且取得了成功。

德國首都柏林的大街上近日出現了一輛不尋常的大眾帕薩特。從表面上看，它與路上的其他車輛沒有任何差異，但仔細觀察你就會發(fā)現，這輛車沒有駕駛員，而是完全由電腦控制的。

這輛被認為是“汽車未來發(fā)展方向”的無人駕駛汽車出自柏林自由大學的研究人員之手。它在柏林的大街小巷中自如穿行，完全與其他汽車一樣。柏林自由大學的研究小組花了整整4年的時間對一輛價值40萬歐元（348.7萬元人民幣）的普通帕薩特進行了徹底的改造，不僅在車廂中安裝了電腦、電子設備和精密衛(wèi)星導航系統，還在車前部、車頂和前后保險杠分別安裝了攝像機和激光掃描設備。

柏林自由大學人工智能研究小組的負責人勞爾?羅雅斯接受采訪時表示：“這輛車可以自動識別70米之內的其他車輛、行人、建筑和樹木，還可以分辨出交通指示燈的顏色，并相應地作出反應。事實上，這輛車辨別環(huán)境和作出反應的速度比人更快?！?/p>

包括谷歌在內的其他企業(yè)和機構也在積極開發(fā)電腦控制汽車的技術。杜伊斯堡-埃森大學的教授費迪南德·杜登霍夫認為：“其實現在人們駕駛的汽車的某些功能已經由電腦控制了……而全電腦控制汽車是一個大趨勢，很多國家的公司和研發(fā)機構都在進行這方面的研究。目前還很難判斷誰的技術更先進?！彼A計照目前的速度發(fā)展下去，全自動汽車十年內就可以投放市場，但更重要的是法律方面的問題：“出了事故誰負責——車主？乘客？還是制造全自動汽車的公司？”不過杜登霍夫教授認為，電腦控制的車輛總體上比有人駕駛的車輛更為安全，畢竟目前大多數的交通事故是由人為因素引起的。

羅雅斯對自動汽車市場前景的預期持謹慎態(tài)度。他認為，隨著控制技術和感應元件價格的下降，全電腦控制汽車將在未來30到40年中與普通消費者見面，“就像是電腦逐漸普及那樣”。羅雅斯教授預計，全電腦控制汽車將能實現遠程控制功能，即使用者只需輕敲一下iPhone或者iPad屏幕，汽車就能趕到使用者所在位置，為其提供服務?！斑@種無人駕駛車其實最適合大家共用。汽車把一個乘客送到指定地點之后還可以去接另外一個乘客，這樣一來就沒必要買私家車了?！?/p>

意大利數名科學家因未警告地震出庭受審

6名意大利科學家和1名前政府官員因2009年拉奎拉地震被控“誤殺”罪名，定于9月20日出庭受審。

2009年，拉奎拉發(fā)生里氏6.3級地震，309人在地震中死亡。

檢控官稱，在研究了拉奎拉數以百計的地震資料后，幾名被告（6名科學家、1名前政府官員）在地震前聲稱未來不會發(fā)生地震。被告表示，即使在地震活動頻繁的地區(qū)，也沒有可能預測大地震是否即將發(fā)生。

這一案件引起了科學界的關注。逾5000名科學家聯名致函意大利總統納波利塔諾，表示對幾名被告的支持。

據悉，這七名被告均為意大利政府組建的一個地震評估小組的成員。在拉奎拉大地震發(fā)生前，意大利當局要求他們對地震發(fā)生的可能性進行評估。

這幾名被告當時曾向公眾發(fā)表聲明，讓大家放心；但該聲明同時表示，幾乎沒有可能對是否將發(fā)生大地震進行預測。

不過，他們建議當局加強采取應對地震的措施，包括強化建筑標準等。

英國廣播公司記者威利在羅馬說，由于這幾名被告發(fā)表了上述聲明，2009年地震發(fā)生當晚，很多意大利人都在家中睡覺，地震發(fā)生后，不少人來不及逃走因而遇難；那些沒有理會聲明，堅持留在室外過夜的人則大多幸存下來。

另據報道，拉奎拉地區(qū)的民眾在地震發(fā)生前幾個月曾感受到地面的輕微震動。這7名被告被指控“向當地民眾傳遞了不準確、不完全以及錯誤的信息，未能對地震的發(fā)生提出警告”。

據悉，一旦被裁定有罪，這7名被告將面臨最長15年監(jiān)禁，并支付高達3000萬美元的賠償金。

Nitrate Levels Rising in Northwestern Pacifc Ocean

Changes in the ratio of nitrate to phosphorus in the oceans off the coasts of Korea and Japan caused by atmospheric and riverine pollutants may influence the makeup of marine plants and influence marine ecology, according to researchers from Korea and the U. S.

"Normally in a marine environment nitrate is the limiting factor, but increased nitrate in the ocean can spur growth and create a situation where phosphorus becomes the nutrient in short supply," says Raymond G. Najjar, professor of oceanography, Penn State. "This change in nutrients could favor organisms that are better suited for high nitrate and low phosphorus."

According to the researchers, the effects of anthropogenic nitrate pollution from the air have been shown to be significant in local lakes, streams and estuaries in Norway, Sweden and the U.S.

"This is the first evidence of increases in nitrate in ocean waters not in an enclosed estuary like the Chesapeake Bay," said Najjar. "These are large, very deep bodies of water and it is surprising to see increased nitrate in these large seas."

Najjar and his Korean colleagues, Kitack Lee, professor, and Tae-Wook Kim, graduate student, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology; Hee-Dong Jeong, National Fisheries Research and Development Institute; and Hae Jun Jeong, professor, School of Earth and Environmental Science, Seoul National University, studied trends in nitrate and phosphate in the coastal waters of Korea and Japan since the 1980s. They also compared the amount of nitrogen deposited from the air between 2002 and 2008 for Korea and Japan with the amounts of nitrate in the water during that same time period to show that the increased levels in the water are directly correlated to an increase in human-generated atmospheric nitrogen.

The area studied included the Yellow Sea, the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. The researchers found that the phosphorus levels in the ocean water remained the same through time.

"The abundance of nitrogen relative to phosphorus in northeastern Asian marginal seas has increased significantly since 1980," the researchers report in the Sepembert 23 online edition of Science Express. "Anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition has narrowed the deficiency of nitrogen relative to phosphorus across the study area and has even resulted in a nitrogen surplus in the East China Sea, Yellow Sea and East Sea, commencing in the mid-1990s."

The other source of nitrate into the oceans is from runoff from industry and agriculture that reaches the seas via rivers. In most cases, this nitrogen is quickly diluted.

"In areas located downstream of the Changjian River plume, contributions from both anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen and riverine nitrogen fluxes appeared to be of equal importance in governing trends in seawater nitrate," the researchers report.

The researchers also looked at the area in the North Pacific on the south and east of Japan, but while nitrate in these waters did increase slightly, the increase was not significant except close to the Japanese coast. The highest level of increase seen was in the Yellow Sea east of China, where the Changjian River enters the sea. Other areas of significantly increased nitrates include the area east of the Korean peninsula and an area in the north of Japan south of Sapporo.

The researchers suggest that their results have broader applicability. "The observed trends may be extrapolated to the coastal seas of the North American Atlantic Ocean and the North, Baltic and Mediterranean Seas, which have received ever-increasing amounts of anthropogenic atmospheric nitrate deposition and riverborne nitrate, comparable to those absorbed by coastal and marginal seas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean."

NASA, the Korea National Research Foundation and the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program supported this work.

Panasonic to unveil communication assistance, hair-washing robots

Panasonic Corp on Monday announced the development of an innovative communication assistance robot named HOSPI-Rimo and new models of its Hair-Washing Robot and RoboticBed. These robots are designed to support people who need assistance to lead safe, comfortable and pleasant lives. Panasonic will showcase prototypes of these three robots at the 38th International Home Care & Rehabilitation Exhibition (H.C.R.2011) to be held Oct 5-7 at the Tokyo Big Site.

HOSPI-Rimo serves as an intermediary to enable comfortable communication between people who are bed ridden or have limited mobility to communicate with other people, for example, their attending doctor in a separate room in the hospital or friends who live far away, as if they were interacting face to face. Panasonic developed HOSPI automatic medication delivery robot, which is used in hospitals in Japan and other countries. HOSPI-Rimo employs HOSPI’s autonomous mobility technology and high-definition visual communications technology.

The new Hair-Washing Robot can complete the entire process of hair washing automatically, from wetting to shampooing, rinsing, conditioning and drying. When the first model was unveiled at the same exhibition last year, it received great response, including requests for additional functions and commercialization. The new model features washing arms with more fingers and improved mechanics than the previous model to give more comfortable washing experience.

RoboticBed, an electric bed transformable into an electric wheelchair and vice versa, also attracted much interest, including commercialization, when it was first introduced at H.C.R. 2009. Since then, Panasonic has made constant improvements by incorporating requests from both caregivers and recipients, as well as by finding solutions for practical and safety issues identified through its activities under the Project for Practical Applications of Service Robots coordinated by NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization), an independent Japanese administrative agency. Panasonic has been developing safety technologies and guidelines under the project.

The Robotic Canopy, introduced together with the RoboticBed, also received a number of requests, including easier installation and more user-friendly way of communication. These requests have led the company to develop the new communication assistance robot, HOSPI-Rimo.

Combining its expertise in robotics and information technology, Panasonic aims to meet the needs of both of those who give and those who receive care by offering robots as well as robot system solutions that provide total support through collaboration between robots and humans.