王阿丹,王昌業(yè),李 萍,李同錄
(長安大學(xué)地質(zhì)工程與測繪學(xué)院,陜西西安 710054)
陜西省西安市東郊白鹿塬邊緣地帶是滑坡易發(fā)區(qū),主要集中在3個(gè)區(qū)段:灞河南岸、浐河邊和鯨魚溝邊。由于地形相對高差大,切割強(qiáng)烈,白鹿塬北緣的灞河南岸滑坡尤為發(fā)育[1-2],這些頻繁發(fā)生的滑坡災(zāi)害對當(dāng)?shù)厝嗣竦纳?cái)產(chǎn)安全造成極大危脅。因此,白鹿塬地區(qū)滑坡的危險(xiǎn)性分析就尤為重要。
滑坡的誘發(fā)因素主要有降水、地下水位、地震及人類的工程行為等,其中許多因素具有不確定性[3-7]。在現(xiàn)行各行業(yè)的規(guī)范中,邊坡穩(wěn)定性都采用穩(wěn)定系數(shù)評價(jià),但在工程中所得到的穩(wěn)定系數(shù)雖然是定值,但不能定量地表示邊坡的安全度,這也是該方法的局限性[8]。以往針對白鹿塬地區(qū)滑坡的研究多采用定值算法,由于參數(shù)的不確定性,使得計(jì)算結(jié)果的可信度不高。為了有效考慮這種不確定性,可靠度理論被引入到斜坡的穩(wěn)定性評價(jià)中[9-15]。在邊坡穩(wěn)定的可靠度分析方面,已有很多學(xué)者從不同角度進(jìn)行了研究;對于土質(zhì)邊坡,主要是將極限平衡法(如Bishop法、Janbu法、Morgenstern-Price法、Spencer法等)與可靠度分析方法(如FOSM法、Monte-Carlo法等)相結(jié)合[16-26]。近年來,也有學(xué)者研究了邊坡穩(wěn)定的有限元可靠度分析方法[27-29]。目前常用的可靠度分析方法有FOSM法(一次二階矩法)、Monte-Carlo法、Rosenbleuth法等。其中,Monte-Carlo法需要對隨機(jī)變量大樣本進(jìn)行抽樣,F(xiàn)OSM法需要進(jìn)行多次迭代求解,Rosenbleuth法在土層較多時(shí)計(jì)算量較大;這些方法在實(shí)際工程中的應(yīng)用都有困難。因此,筆者應(yīng)用一個(gè)計(jì)算可靠度更為簡便的Duncan法,結(jié)合極限平衡法確定邊坡的可靠指標(biāo)與失效概率,并與Monte-Carlo法計(jì)算結(jié)果進(jìn)行對比,評價(jià)白鹿塬地區(qū)黃土自然邊坡的可靠度,進(jìn)一步討論白鹿塬邊坡在自然狀態(tài)下坡高、坡度與邊坡穩(wěn)定性的關(guān)系。
白鹿塬地處西安市城區(qū)東南,驪山西南,浐河、灞河分流于白鹿塬兩側(cè),塬長約28km,寬7~10 km,面積238km2,是西安市附近最大的黃土塬。塬面向西南傾斜,塬北與灞河高差260~350m,塬南與浐河高差150~200m。鯨魚溝橫切塬面。對白鹿塬地區(qū)遙感影像做照片增強(qiáng)處理,取其底片圖像見圖1[2],地理位置如圖2。
圖1 白鹿塬滑坡分布遙感影像Fig.1 Remote sensing image of distribution of landslides in Bailuyuan
圖2 白鹿塬地理位置及滑坡分布Fig.2 Location of Bailuyuan and distribution of landslides
由于塬邊斜坡高差不同,白鹿塬南北兩側(cè)出露地層有一定差異,灞河一側(cè)斜坡相對高差大,第三系和第四系地層均有出露,浐河一側(cè)則僅有第四系地層出露。白鹿塬邊坡為老黃土與紅黏土組合型,地層剖面如圖3。其中,離石黃土(Q2)厚20~52m;午城黃土(Q1)厚度變化大,最厚為80m以上。馬蘭黃土(Q3)漫覆于老黃土上,厚度3~10m,三趾馬紅土(N2)僅在坡腳出露,厚度變化大,富含鈣質(zhì)結(jié)核。塬區(qū)黃土原生節(jié)理和構(gòu)造節(jié)理較發(fā)育。塬區(qū)潛水類型為黃土間孔隙裂隙水,水位埋深60m以上。塬區(qū)地下水排泄主要有:塬邊向灞河、浐河排泄;塬中向鯨魚溝排泄[1-2]。
圖3 白鹿塬邊坡地層結(jié)構(gòu)模型Fig.3 Strata structure model of slope in Bailuyuan
白鹿塬灞河一側(cè)共測得14個(gè)自然邊坡斷面,建立地質(zhì)模型,其坡高與坡度統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果見表1,測量點(diǎn)位置見圖2?,F(xiàn)場取馬蘭黃土樣品2組和離石黃土樣品1組,室內(nèi)做不同含水率的基本指標(biāo)測試,并收集了已發(fā)表的該區(qū)黃土物理力學(xué)參數(shù)[1-2,30-35],見表2。其目的是為了便于探討基本隨機(jī)變量的不確定性,尤其是內(nèi)聚力(c)和內(nèi)摩擦角(φ)的變異性對邊坡穩(wěn)定性的影響。
表1 白鹿塬自然邊坡實(shí)測坡度和坡高Tab.1 Measured gradient and height of slopes in Bailuyuan
根據(jù)表2的統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果,塬區(qū)邊坡各土層c、φ的變異系數(shù)分別為0.49~0.58和0.13~0.25,變異性都較大,采用確定性方法探討邊坡的穩(wěn)定性具有較大的不確定性,而可靠度方法能充分考慮到參數(shù)的變異性,因此采用可靠度分析方法探討該區(qū)邊坡穩(wěn)定性更為合理。筆者將Morgenstern-Price法穩(wěn)定性計(jì)算公式作為極限狀態(tài)方程,并借助GEO-slope軟件分別采用Monte-Carlo法和Duncan法得到14個(gè)邊坡的穩(wěn)定系數(shù),結(jié)果分別為1.11~1.41和1.09~1.33(表3),并依據(jù)這兩種可靠度分析方法計(jì)算該區(qū)邊坡的可靠度。
Duncan用點(diǎn)估計(jì)法對擋土墻的抗滑穩(wěn)定性進(jìn)行可靠度分析,提出了一種計(jì)算可靠度更為簡單的方法[5-6],具體思路如下。
邊坡的極限狀態(tài)Z常用功能函數(shù)描述
式中:F(X1,X2,…,Xn)為功能函數(shù),X1,X2,…,Xn分別為內(nèi)摩擦角、內(nèi)聚力、重度等基本隨機(jī)變量。巖土體的基本隨機(jī)變量中,c、φ是影響邊坡穩(wěn)定性的首要因素,因此,這里僅考慮c、φ為基本隨機(jī)變量。表2中c、φ經(jīng)K-S檢驗(yàn)服從正態(tài)分布。根據(jù)Duncan法,按式(2)對c、φ進(jìn)行兩點(diǎn)估計(jì)
式中:μc、μφ分別為內(nèi)聚力和內(nèi)摩擦角的平均值;σc、σφ分別為內(nèi)聚力和內(nèi)摩擦角的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差;c+、c-、φ+、φ-均為中間變量。
表2 白鹿塬地區(qū)邊坡不同地層的模型參數(shù)Tab.2 Parameters of model for different strata of slopes in Bailuyuan
式中:μF和σF分別為穩(wěn)定系數(shù)的均值和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差;ΔFi為第i種組合的穩(wěn)定系數(shù)差值。根據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)正態(tài)分布函數(shù)表,可進(jìn)一步求得邊坡的失效概率。
按圖3形式建立實(shí)測斷面的地質(zhì)結(jié)構(gòu)模型,各層土強(qiáng)度參數(shù)的均值及標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差見表2。借助GEO-slope軟件,采用Monte-Carlo法、Duncan法等兩種可靠度分析方法對白鹿塬自然邊坡進(jìn)行可靠度計(jì)算。其中,Monte-Carlo法采用隨機(jī)抽樣10 000次進(jìn)行計(jì)算,極限狀態(tài)方程采用Morgenstern-Price法穩(wěn)定性計(jì)算公式。
由表3可見,不論采用確定性方法還是上述兩種可靠度方法,所得的穩(wěn)定系數(shù)基本一致。由穩(wěn)定系數(shù)結(jié)果可知,該區(qū)邊坡處于基本穩(wěn)定—穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)。但采用Duncan法和Monte-Carlo法得到的邊坡可靠指標(biāo)分別為0.56~1.79和0.39~1.60,得到的失效概率分別為3.4%~29.0%和5.5%~34.8%,并且共有75%的邊坡失效概率大于10%。其中Duncan法的分析結(jié)果顯示有5個(gè)邊坡失效概率大于20%,7個(gè)邊坡失效概率為10%~20%,僅有2個(gè)失效概率小于10%,可見該區(qū)多數(shù)邊坡失效可能性較大。
對比可知:Duncan法求解的穩(wěn)定系數(shù)略小于Monte-Carlo法,差值為0.02~0.08;失效概率略大于Monte-Carlo法求得的結(jié)果,差值為0.02%~6.56%;兩種方法計(jì)算結(jié)果相差較小。由于Duncan法理論簡單,計(jì)算量小,所以更宜于在實(shí)際工程中應(yīng)用。
根據(jù)表3的邊坡坡高與坡度測量值,可以建立坡高與坡度的相關(guān)關(guān)系。圖4中4個(gè)自然邊坡中有3個(gè)邊坡高且陡,1個(gè)邊坡低且緩,不符合自然狀態(tài)下邊坡趨于穩(wěn)定的一般規(guī)律,故予以刪除。其相關(guān)關(guān)系為
表3 采用Monte-Carlo法和Duncan法得到的可靠度計(jì)算結(jié)果Tab.3 Results of reliability calculated by Monte-Carlo Method and Duncan Method
圖4 白鹿塬邊坡坡高與坡度關(guān)系Fig.4 Relationship between height and gradient of slopes
式中:θ為坡度;H為坡高;R2為判決系數(shù)。
圖5 可靠指標(biāo)、失效概率與邊坡坡高的關(guān)系Fig.5 Relationships between reliable indicator and height of slope,and failure probability and height of slope
由式(6)的判別系數(shù)計(jì)算得到不同坡高和相應(yīng)坡度下的邊坡可靠指標(biāo)和失效概率(圖5)。分析表明:低而陡的邊坡潛在最危險(xiǎn)滑面剪出口較高,位于Q2土層內(nèi),隨坡高增大,可靠指標(biāo)增大,失效概率減??;當(dāng)坡高達(dá)到50m及以上,邊坡高而緩,剪出口位于Q1土層內(nèi)或N2泥巖頂面,隨著坡高的增大,可靠指標(biāo)隨坡高的增大而減小,失效概率增大。由此可見,該區(qū)域內(nèi)侵蝕強(qiáng)烈,河流下切深,有N2泥巖出露的極高邊坡,盡管邊坡總體坡度較小,但穩(wěn)定性最差。
(1)采用Monte-Carlo法和Duncan法得到白鹿塬14個(gè)邊坡的穩(wěn)定系數(shù)分別為1.11~1.41和1.09~1.33,這些邊坡,處于基本穩(wěn)定—穩(wěn)定狀態(tài),失效概率卻多大于10%,最大達(dá)34.8%,邊坡失效可能性較大。
(2)Duncan法求解的穩(wěn)定系數(shù)略小于Monte-Carlo法求得的結(jié)果,而前者求解的失效概率略大于后者,結(jié)果相差較小。Duncan法理論簡單,計(jì)算量小,更宜于在實(shí)際工程中應(yīng)用。
(3)低而陡的邊坡,潛在最危險(xiǎn)滑面剪出口較高,位于Q2土層內(nèi),且隨坡高增大,可靠指標(biāo)增大,失效概率減小;當(dāng)坡高達(dá)到50m及以上,邊坡高而緩,剪出口位于Q1土層內(nèi)或N2泥巖頂面,隨著坡高的增大,可靠指標(biāo)減小,失效概率增大。由此可見,該區(qū)域內(nèi)河流下切深,有N2泥巖出露的極高邊坡,穩(wěn)定性最差。
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