By Zhou Xiaoyan

Amid economic woes at home and abroad， Chinese growth still hit a robust 7.8 percent in 2012， even though its the countrys slowest rate since 1999.

After dipping to a seven-quarter low of 7.4 percent in the third quarter of 2012， the economy has shown signs of stability while GDP growth rebounded to 7.9 percent in the last quarter， said Ma Jiantang， Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics （NBS） at a press conference on January 18.

Among the 51.93 trillion yuan （$8.36 trillion） of the GDP in 2012， the service sector experienced a rise， its added value contributing 44.6 percent， 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous year.

While the export engine lost steam due to anemic demand on the global market， domestic consumption contributed 51.8 percent to Chinas economic growth in 2012， with investment adding 50.4 percent， and exports -2.2 percent.

In addition， China made progress in energy saving and emission reduction. Energy consumption per unit of the GDP dropped by 3.6 percent in 2012， compared with 2011s 2 percent. Natural gas， hydropower， wind and nuclear power accounted for 14.5 percent of total energy use， 1.5 percentage points higher than the proportion in 2011， according to Ma.

The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2012 prioritized quality and efficiency of growth over its speed for the first time. The slowing growth rate and changes in growth patterns during 2012 indicate the countrys economy is heading in this direction.

New growth engine

As exports received a heavy blow from a sluggish global economy， domestic consumption has taken the baton to become a new lifesaver for a slowing economy.

Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 20.72 trillion yuan （$3.33 trillion） in 2012， increasing 12.1 percent from 2011.

Chinese purchasing power was on full display in 2012， illustrating the potential for increased domestic consumption as the country attempts to shift its economy away from a reliance on investment and manufactured exports.

The per-capita disposable income of Chinas urbanites increased 9.6 percent in 2012 to 24，565 yuan （$3，953）， while per-capita net income of farmers was 7，917 yuan（$1，274）， up 10.7 percent， said the NBS.

Growth in consumption was also due to government incentives.

Money collected from personal income tax dropped 8 percent in 2012， while the individual business income tax declined 12.5 percent during the period， according to the State Administration of Taxation. The government has stepped up tax reduction efforts over recent years in a bid to buoy the economy. In 2011， it raised the income tax exemption threshold for wage-earners and those owning individual businesses.

“Chinas growth opportunities have changed. Domestic consumption has replaced external demand to become a new means of economic growth，” said Lian Ping， chief economist of Bank of Communications.

“Alongside the fast development of per-capita GDP， urbanization and the countrys central and western regions， a new window has been opened for Chinas economic growth.”

To unleash the potential of domestic consumption， the country should improve income distribution and its social security system， which would ease the effect of sluggish exports on Chinas economy， said Lian.

“China should make further reforms on its income distribution system to enhance the proportion of residents income against national income，”said Li Wei， Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council， at the Forum on Chinas Economic Outlook held in Beijing on December 29， 2012.

Dim trade outlook

Chinas exports and imports totaled $3.87 trillion in 2012， up 6.2 percent， according to the General Administration of Customs （GAC）.

The growth rate slowed sharply from the 22.5-percent rise registered in 2011 and also missed the governments 10-percent target set for 2012.

“Although this number missed the governments target， Chinas foreign trade performance still tops the world and is the best among all economies in the world，” said Zheng Yuesheng， Spokesman of the GAC.

The slowdown of foreign trade growth is a result of sluggish external demand， rising production costs at home and increasing trade protectionism in other countries， Zheng said.

Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis， the world economy remains fragile and growth in high-income countries is weak， says the World Bank in the newly released Global Economic Prospects report.

“The economic recovery remains fragile and uncertain， clouding the prospect for rapid improvement and a return to more robust economic growth，” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim.

The demographic dividends and the gains of Chinas entry into the WTO have been watered down， said Liu Ligang， an economist at ANZ National Bank Ltd. In the long run， foreign trade will no longer pump as much steam into the countrys economic growth as it used to.

“Among the worlds major economies， Chinese exports were the most targeted by trade protectionism. Emerging economies are also increasingly launching trade investigations against China， while the number of targeted industries is rising，” said Zheng. Chinese exporters were targeted by 72 trade investigations in 2012.

Risks ahead

Inflation， which used to be an acute headache for the Chinese economy， was within government control in 2012. However， long-term inflationary pressure still exists. Monetary policies must be rolled out with full caution to avert the re-ignition of a price spiral.

The consumer price index （CPI）， a main gauge of inflation， rose 2.6 percent in 2012， well below the governments annual target of 4 percent， said the NBS.

Wang Jun， an expert with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges， said that China will face greater inflationary pressure in 2013 than in 2012.

“Inflation is likely to rise in the coming months as a result of rising food prices and higher labor and land costs， the quantitative easing measures in foreign countries and stabilizing domestic economic growth，” Wang told Xinhua News Agency. He predicts the CPI will stay at 3-4 percent in 2013.