曾茂春，曾維忠

摘要：運(yùn)用向量自回歸與誤差修正模型探析了四川省農(nóng)田水利基建投資和農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明，四川省農(nóng)田水利基建投資與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在長(zhǎng)期協(xié)整關(guān)系；但二者并未形成雙向因果關(guān)系，農(nóng)田水利基建投資增長(zhǎng)會(huì)推動(dòng)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，而農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)并未顯著帶動(dòng)農(nóng)田水利基建投資的增加；同時(shí)，農(nóng)田水利基建投資對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響存在滯后效應(yīng)，并且這種影響力度正在減弱。對(duì)此，提出加大水利基建投資力度，特別是末端渠系建設(shè)投資，加大水利工程管理體制改革等建議。

關(guān)鍵詞：農(nóng)田水利投資；農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)；動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系；四川省

中圖分類號(hào)：F323.9 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：0439-8114（2013）05-1210-04

Study on the Dynamic Relationship of Irrigation Investment and Agricultural Economic Growth：With the Sichuan Province as Example

ZENG Mao-chun1，ZENG Wei-zhong2

（1.College of Economics Management， Sichuan Agricultural University，Chengdu 611130，China；

2.Sichuan Economics and Development Research Center，Chengdu 611130，China）

Abstract： The paper studies the dynamic relationship of irrigation investment and agricultural economic growth using VAR and VECM model. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between irrigation investment and agricultural economic growth in Sichuan province. But there doesn't exist a two-way causality， the irrigation investment can promote the growth of the agricultural economy， while agricultural economic growth is not directly driven by the increase of irrigation investment. At the same time， the influence of irrigation investment on agricultural economic growth has lag effect， and the influence is weakened. In this regard， this paper puts forward some policy recommendations such as increase the intensity of irrigation investment， especially the end of the canal construction， and reform the management system of hydraulic engineering， etc.

Key words： irrigation investment； agricultural economic growth； dynamic relationship； Sichuan province