Can China rise to challeges of higher temperatures？

氣候變化已經(jīng)不再是新聞，可它仍在悄然改變著中國(guó)

Human history is essentially a tug-of-war with nature. we define progress by how far weve come from our ancestors who cowered before natures every whim. Perhaps more than any other nation on Earth， modern China is founded on the scientific promise to harness natures potential and rein in its destructive tendencies so as to safeguard the livelihoods of the worlds largest population. But the pendulum must swing back sometime， and climate change is becoming a bigger problem than can be solved by mere environmental policymaking and disaster-prevention engineering. As sea levels rise and glaciers retreat， as climate studies produce dire warnings and climate agreements get signed worldwide， the country is changing the way it sees its impact on the natural environment， as well as plans for the future of this delicate relationship with the Earth.

Sink or Swim

Environmental researcher Cleo Paskal once told environmental NGO China Dialogue that Chinas approach to climate disasters resembled that of “King Cnut”， in reference to the 12th-century Scandinavian king who， depending the version of the story， either arrogantly told the tides to stay away from his royal person， or realized from the experience his powerlessness to command God and nature.

Both versions fit the Chinese case. On the one hand， blessed or cursed by its long recorded history， environmental disasters in China are still often discussed in terms of historical patterns， thus are more or less natural and statistical inevitabilities rather than manmade phenomena.

On the other hand， as an economically advancing and scientific society， Chinese researchers and officials favor approaches to disaster management that emphasize infrastructural improvements， heavy engineering， and streamlined official responses. The disastrous “once-in-100-years” flooding of the Yangtze River in 1998 invited criticism mainly for authorities poor handling of the humanitarian situation and led directly to greater approval of the controversial Three Gorges Dam project， which was then under construction. Where ecological factors entered the discussion， it was not the bigger picture of environmental degradation but scientists noting that trees and wetlands would have been natural safeguards against silting and the rainwater run-off.

Blame the shadow of Chinas own legendary king， Yu the Great， who battled floods in prehistoric times with smart channel-building solutions—or， more plausibly， the emphasis on technocratic and “scientific” approaches in Chinas modern governance. In any case， it can be hard to find environmentalists and disaster relief researchers as part of each others conversations.

Nowhere is this more apparent than the modern saga of Shanghai and its coastal vulnerabilities to climate change. In 1993， the citys officials boasted that based upon records of sea levels near the Yangtze Delta over the past millennium， they have added height and made reinforcements to the citys then 208-kilometer coastal levee so that they could withstand tide surges the likes of which are seen once every 1，000 years.

Less than a decade later， in 2000， engineers in Shanghai noted that in less than 50 years the levee could see its effectiveness “downgraded” to a once-every-100-years tide surge， as the historical records had failed to account for climate change raising sea levels worldwide.

Shanghais disaster vulnerability due to climate change has also attracted considerable world attention in recent years. In 2012， a study backed by UNESCO ranked Shanghai first among nine of the worlds major coastal cities at risk due to rising sea levels in its Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index （CCFVI）. This is not only because the city has a long coastline and sits， on average， only four meters above sea level， but also due to the amount of uncontrolled development along its coastline lacking in （or disregarding） disaster awareness. This has led to significant concentration of peoples and cultural heritage， but with few shelters， in the vulnerable areas.

In a 2015 study by climate reporting agency Climate Central， Shanghai once again topped the list as the coastal city with most to lose should the Earths temperature warm by 4 degrees Celsius： 74 percent of the city could be submerged by coastal flooding. Six other Chinese cities also made the Top 20 list， including Tianjin （in second place） and Hong Kong. Climate Centrals press release accompanying the report puts the cause， effect， and solution in one elegant chain： “China， the worlds leading carbon emitter， leads the world， too， in coastal risk， with 145 million people living on land ultimately threatened by rising seas if emission levels are not reduced.”

This logic， however， can be difficult to locate in the official response. Through state media， Shanghai officials and scientists refuted the CCFVIs “rigid mathematical model”， which failed to consider the central governments disasters preparation efforts as well as the areas lack of history of earthquakes and cyclones. These disasters make the difference between barely perceptible yearly sea level increases and a full-blown flooding crisis.

There is no mention at all of climate change， despite the fact that Shanghai actually has a pretty impressive record of carbon-reduction， energy efficiency， and “green” initiatives. It was one of two Chinese cities participating in the World Wide Fund for Natures （WWF） Low Carbon City initiative in 2008， two years before the Chinese government developed its own low carbon city project. Ahead of the 2010 World Expo， the city also issued “green” guidelines for exhibitors and attendees to reduce their carbon footprint， hoping to make the entire expo a model and avenue for promoting low carbon usage.

Yet the climate change elephant in the room was also not brought up in the Shanghais municipal Science and Technology Commission three-step plan to deal with rising sea levels， released in 2013. Instead， the commission recommended a “short-term plan （2012-2015）” to modernize municipal drainage systems， a “medium-term plan （2016-2020）” to better monitor sea levels and control development along the coast， and a “l(fā)ong-term plan （2021-2030）” that vaguely described “combining an emphasis on the citys security and transforming development”.

While the State Oceanic Administration， back in 2012， admitted that Shanghais sea levels were at their highest in history and have stayed there for several years， they recommended that officials limit development in coastal areas and develop better disaster preparation measures.

“If the Yangtze River Delta and Shanghais climate change vulnerabilities are only seen as a matter of sea levels rising， it will lead to the building of higher coastal levees，” Wang Qian， senior project officer for WWF in China， told TWOC. According to Wang， a better way to look at the situation—as the WWF and its partners do—is “the combined effects of rising sea levels， global climate change， and changes [specific] to the region， such as the decrease of water from upstream leading to saltwater intrusion…or extreme weather leading to humanitarian crises.”

Further complicating the situation， Shanghai， due to overbuilding and drainage of groundwater in the 1950s and 60s， has been sinking. According to a study by a team from Tongji University in 2012， the city had sunk by around 1.89 meters between the years 1921 and 2000， and officials have been pumping water “back” into the ground while moving water-consuming factories away from the coast in recent years. The much more dramatic and obviously manmade scenario of a city sinking “attracts more attention than sea level increases”， according to Wang.

Disaster preparedness， remains a thorny political issue in China. Highlighting and pouring funds into shelter construction， evacuation plans， and emergency communication systems puts city officials in line with national disaster preparedness policies， reformed in 1998 and again in 2006， that emphasize coordination and technological development. The nation is keen to avoid public unrest and to highlight its preparedness front and center after several bungled efforts， including the 1998 floods， the 2003 SARS epidemic， and Typhoon Bilis in 2006.

As climate change remains controversial worldwide， with experts in various fields unable to agree on the extent its linked to human actions and how best to combat it， it will not be easy to make these political， administrative， economic， technological， and environmental endeavors untangle each of their own agendas to come to the same page. But as climate-related disasters increase around China， they might soon be forced to try. - Hatty Liu

Change has arrived

The planet is warming at an alarming rate， and more concise data means that the effects can be better measured. Whether its building bridges in cities or preparing for floods in the countryside， the numbers are showing that the concern over climate change is no longer just handwringing.

China has experienced noticeable climate change over the past century. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） report in 2014， Chinas annual average air temperature increased by 0.5 to 0.8 degrees Celsius over the past 100 years， which was slightly greater than the global average.

The most immediate problem for China is glaciers. Projections show that a temperature rise of 4 degrees could trigger rapid melting of glaciers on a global scale and Chinas western region， known as the Third Pole， is in serious danger. The Third National Assessment Report on Climate Change in 2015， claims that glaciers in western China have shrunk by 18 percent since the 1950s， an average loss of 244 square kilometers a year. The 2014 IPCC report predicted that the Himalayan glaciers could lose one-third to one-half of their mass by 2100.

These shrinking glaciers result in flooding from glacial lakes in the west all the way to the Yangtze River Delta， causing an increase in flooding. From 2008 to 2010， 62 percent of Chinese cities experienced flooding; 173 cities had three or more floods in that period， according to an assessment from the China Environment Forum and Western Kentucky University.

The glacial melting is also causing droughts. The closest glacier to a major city in the world， outside of Urumqi， has retreated more than 180 meters， shedding nearly a quarter of its mass. This is very likely to bring serious water disruptions to the two million people in Urumqi， according to researchers at the Tianshan Glacier Station， Urumqi Glacier No.1. As glaciers shrink， so too do the freshwater lakes and streams upon which so many rural residents depend. Climate change has also accelerated desertification.?The New York Times recently claimed that Chinas deserts have been spreading at an annual rate of more than 1，300 square miles for years.

The effects of climate change on agriculture are already measurable. According to a paper in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management， changing climate conditions from 2001 to 2009 led to a net economic loss of approximately 200 million USD?in Chinas corn and soybean sectors in 2009 alone. And the IPCC report in 2007 concluded that under the worst case scenario， the expected effects of temperature and precipitation change could cause a drop in Chinas rain-fed yields of rice， wheat， and maize of between 20 and 36 percent over the next 20 to 80 years.

Another oft-overlooked element to climate change is the spread of disease in traditionally cooler areas， and such has been the case with malaria and dengue fever in parts of China. In 2014， China saw its worst outbreak of dengue fever in the southern province of Guangdong， with six people killed and thousands infected， according to the Health Department of Guangdong Province.

For the authorities， the question is how to best avoid the affects of near-future climate change and all signs point to infrastructure being the best response. That， however， does not come cheap. With once-every-20-years flooding predicted to occur as frequently as every four years by 2050， preparing for climate change in the PRC could cost 44 billion USD a year by 2050， according to a report from the Asian Development Bank in 2013.

While no particular natural phenomenon is necessarily “caused” by climate change directly， the effects of a warming globe are now clearly visible， and figuring out how to deal with the barrage of troubles will be an expensive problem for generations to come. - Sun Jiahui （孫佳慧）

Targets?acquired

Its not easy to pin down exactly what came out of the recent G20 meeting in Hangzhou; most headlines in Chinese media merely reiterated Chinas pride in hosting the event and asserted the importance of ongoing international cooperation. The one key achievement seemed to be that the US and China had signed the Paris Agreement on

climate change.

Most of the negotiations had of course already occurred behind the scenes， but that didnt detract from the significance of this milestone： the worlds two largest emitters were on board. Having these two players involved was a big boost， as the agreement basically pushes these countries to keep global climate change to less than 2 degrees higher than pre-industrial times， while shooting for just 1.5 degrees.

Sure enough， with India and a significant chunk of the EU signing on in October， the agreement reached its target and came into force on November 4.

While that all sounds well and good， it doesnt explain how these countries are reducing their carbon footprint.

Executive Director of Programs at WWF China， Dr. Li Lin， points out that in June of last year， China signed on to some of the most significant commitments that are currently in play， due to be reached by 2030. These included having China reach its peak emissions in 2030 or sooner as well as reducing the amount of carbon emissions to 65 percent of what they were in 2005， per unit of GDP （which would represent a reduction of 60 percent）.

This would include bumping up Chinas proportion of non-fossil fuels in the energy mix to 20 percent， and adding 4.5 billion cubic meters of forest stock compared to 2005 levels.

Naturally， however， circumstances in China are subject to change， particularly given the current growth slowdown. Li points out that this has positive and negative effects in terms of reducing carbon emissions. “In the short term， to some extent， the economic slowdown makes it easier. For instance， coal consumption has been declining since 2014，” she says. “This makes carbon emission reduction targets easier to achieve， but there are economic growth imperatives that push some regions or sectors to invest in unsustainable projects to stimulate GDP growth in the short term but result in disaster in the long term， such as coal or chemical industries.”

So what is the answer？

“The only true solution which can help China reach those commitments is energy transition， which relies on upgrading industries and technology innovation，” Li says.

Before looking at the progress however， its important to note there are of course plenty of caveats regarding Chinas energy production， which still relies heavily on coal. In April， authorities halted approvals on new coal projects， sidelining many until 2018， but then in July Greenpeace claimed that， on average， one was still being opened each week and this would continue until 2020， because the coal projects were already in the works or they had found loopholes. Greenpeace said that opening these excess plants amounted to a waste of a trillion RMB due to overcapacity. Wastage was a key theme of an earlier?The New York Times report which found many local governments were investing in new coal plants as they were an attractive form of revenue， in part due to tax benefits.

That being said， there are positive signs in a shift toward more sustainable energy options. A WWF report， released in October， titled “15 Signals： Evidence the Energy Transition is Underway”， points out that coal consumption is still declining， having dropped by a massive 9.7 percent in the first half of 2016. So even though China may or may not be boosting the numbers of coal plants， actual consumption appears to be decreasing.

The report also found that worldwide， in 2015， renewable energy employment reached a peak of 8.1 million jobs， of which a massive 43 percent， or 3.52 million jobs， were based in China. The report also states that in 2015， China was also the leading investor in renewable energy， bumping up its investment by 17 percent to 103 billion USD that year.

Perhaps the most important figure included in the report relates to total emissions worldwide. Drawing upon International Energy Agency （IEA） figures， the WWF report states that coal power emissions worldwide plateaued for the second year in a row， despite global growth continuing. The IEA explains this by citing improvements in energy efficiency， a spur in renewables led by wind as well as the decline in coal use by the two biggest world emitters in the world. In December 2015， the IEA stated， “Following more than a decade of aggressive growth， global coal demand has stalled，” in its annual coal report， adding that the report had “sharply lowered its five-year global coal demand growth forecast in reflection of economic restructuring in China， which represents half of global coal consumption.”

Aside from attempting to rein in the coal industry， authorities have instituted a number of policies that attempt to reduce emissions. These range from mandated improvements to coal facilities， through to a commitment in 2010 to establish five provinces and eight cities as low-carbon pilot projects， which was then boosted to six provinces and 36 cities in 2012. These cities and provinces are required to make plans to reduce carbon emissions and promote low-carbon lifestyles. In addition， 11 provinces have set a specific year which will be their peak year for emissions.

Cities have also received rewards for establishing “green building” guidelines， and perhaps the most visible attempts to reduce emissions have come in the transport sector. In addition to the traffic controls which kick in when smog reaches critical levels in Beijing， other transport restrictions and reforms have been geared toward reducing emissions long-term. Electric buses have been rolled out in many cities， and policies to foster electric vehicles are also being implemented.

In January， the first moves toward establishing a carbon-trading system were agreed upon， with the scheme planned for introduction in the latter half of 2017. Though the plans are still being formulated， the intent is to include six key industries ranging from coal to cement， iron and steel， while incorporating lessons learned from pilot projects.

The extent to which any given policy will contribute to the overall reduction in emissions will undoubtedly be up for debate over the coming years， but the sheer number of policies being considered would indicate that China certainly has the will to reduce emissions. As for a way， only time will tell. - David Dawson