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Closer Look: G20’s Shifting Role

2016-11-15 07:00:31
中國經(jīng)貿聚焦·英文版 2016年9期

From the promise to "re- pair the financial system" in 2009 to the wish to"unleash mid- to longterm growth potential" in 2016, the Group of 20 summits, originally an effort to cope with financial crises, have shifted their role from crisis first aid to coping with knotty problems such as currency devaluations, manufacturing overcapacity and economic policy disputes.

The G20 was created in 1999 by the finance ministers and central bank governors of seven major industrial countries after the 1997 financial crisis as a platform to promote international financial stability.After the 2008 global meltdown, it again played a key role in bringing together world leaders to deal with the crisis. In 2009, it set up the Financial Stability Board, which is designed to promote global recovery and help implement post-crisis reforms.

Since then, the G20 seems to have become more low-key. Instead of coping with crises, the summits themselves have been interrupted by crises several times.

France, presiding over the summit in 2011, proposed to discuss global financial system reform at first, only to twist the angle to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. This began attracting global attention the same year that several Eurozone member states, including Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Cyprus, were unable to repay their government debt or bail out over-indebted banks without the assistance of out- side funders.

In 2015, participating leaders at the G20 summit in the Turkish resort city of Antalya were delayed by the Paris terrorist attack of Nov. 13, which occurred just two days before the summit took place.

But this year, the G20 has regained its power to tackle knotty issues. There might not be a financial crisis now, but new crises, in currencies, manufacturing and policies, are awaiting the consensus of world leaders.

Currency

Before the first meeting of fi-nance ministers and central bank governors kicked off in Shanghai in March, Japan surprised markets by cutting interest rates below zero as a stimulus tool. Fear spread over the market that if more banks did so, the policy would ultimately lead to a currency war of competitive devaluations.

The key point of the meeting in Shanghai was to convince Japans financial leaders not to touch its currency, a person close to Chinas central bank said.

It was the first time that G20 leaders promised to "consult closely on exchange markets." The communiqué issued after the meeting stated that central banks can only conduct adverse interventions when there is "excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates." All participating countries have agreed to "refrain from competitive devaluations" and "will not target (our) exchange rates for competitive purposes."

The agreement was considered to specifically target Japan and China, the latter having devalued the yuan in August 2015, by the biggest daily drop since 1994 when it ended a dual-currency system.

Overcapacity

At the G20 trade ministers meeting in July, several parties, including the United States, the European Union, Japan and Canada, pressured China to rein in its overcapacity and alleged dumping activity in the steel and coal sectors. The countries continually lobbed related questions to China during the meeting.

China has said it plans to shave off 500 million tons of coal output and nearly 150 million tons of steel capacity over the next three to five years. In the first seven months of this year, it completed less than half of the target set for this year.

Besides reiterating its determined willingness to trim excess capacity,China also stressed that "excess capacity in steel and other industries is a global issue which requires collective responses."

In the end, world leaders at the summit that just ended on Sept. 5 agreed on the establishment of a Global Forum on steel excess capacity to increase information sharing and cooperation. The forum will be facilitated by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

The G20s focus on overcapacity has set a great example of how its role can shift from dealing with financial crises to facing more enduring challenges because excess capacity will be a long-term problem, said Lu Feng, vice dean of the National School of Development at Peking University.

Macroeconomic Policies

"We are determined to use all policy tools — monetary, fiscal and structural — individually and collectively to achieve our goal of strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth," said the communiqué issued at the conclusion of the G20 Leaders Summit.

It was the first time that the three policy tools have been placed together. But this has taken some effort.

The U.S. and Germany had contradictory stances on the issue at the beginning of the year, the person close to Chinas central bank told Caixin. Germany emphasized the implication of structural reform, while the U.S. appealed for more fiscal and monetary policies. China spent much time and effort in coordinating and negotiating between the two disagreeing countries.

Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said it was time-consuming to come to an agreement. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble explicitly objected to conducting fiscal policy to boost stimulus. After rounds of negotiations, all countries finally gave the green light to the policy, with the condition that only those countries that have the capacity for additional stimuli need adopt it.

Three to five years ago, world leaders were not able to agree on whether to apply austerity or stimulus policies, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Caixin. But now, all parties have agreed to work together to conduct the three policies, though some wont implement all three at the same time, he said.

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