王云鵬　魯光泉　雷方舒　王馨　蔡品隆

摘 要：主要針對(duì)北京和上海等交通系統(tǒng)較脆弱的超大城市，研究綜合交通系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行可靠性，揭示不同時(shí)空尺度下以道路交通和城市軌道交通為主的交通系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行可靠性的耦合機(jī)理和演化規(guī)律，探索提高抗干擾的能力、應(yīng)對(duì)突發(fā)事件的措施和保障大型社會(huì)活動(dòng)的交通組織預(yù)案?；诓杉幕A(chǔ)交通數(shù)據(jù)，從交通系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行可靠性指標(biāo)體系、可靠性影響因素特征參數(shù)演化、交通系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行可靠性微觀、宏觀等角度進(jìn)行研究，最終通過(guò)研究交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)多方式系統(tǒng)耦合理論，建立大城市綜合交通系統(tǒng)可靠性模型，揭示接近臨界狀態(tài)的大城市弱平衡綜合交通系統(tǒng)面對(duì)惡劣天氣、突發(fā)性自然災(zāi)害、事故、大型活動(dòng)等非常規(guī)條件的脆弱性。并將理論研究成果用于指導(dǎo)交通實(shí)踐，減少我國(guó)城市交通規(guī)劃、設(shè)計(jì)、建設(shè)和管理中的盲目性，提高整個(gè)城市綜合交通系統(tǒng)的協(xié)同運(yùn)行可靠性。

關(guān)鍵詞：綜合交通系統(tǒng) 運(yùn)行可靠性 應(yīng)急策略

Abstract： The research focuses on the megacities， such as Beijing or Shanghai， of which transportation system would be more vulnerable. In depth study of the integrated transport system， we will reveal the evolution of the coupling mechanism and transportation system operation reliability， road transport and urban rail transport concerned mainly， under the different spatial and temporal scales. The purpose is to explore the ability to improve noise immunity of transportation and response to emergencies. It can also protect traffic organization plan for large-scale social activities. On the basis of traffic data collection， the main research areas include transport system reliability index system， reliability factors affecting the evolution of the characteristic parameters， and traffic system reliability from micro and macro perspectives. Finally， we can establish a reliability model about metropolitan transportation systems through research on system coupling theory of multi-mode transportation network. The issue also reveals the vulnerabilities of cities weak-balanced integrated transport systems closed to the critical state when facing bad weather conditions， unexpected natural disasters， accidents， events and other unconventional conditions. We can take the theory research to guide traffic， which can reduce blindness of urban transportation planning， design， construction and management in our country， and improve collaborative operational reliability of integrated transport system throughout the city， simultaneously.

Key Words： Transportation systems； Operational reliability； Emergency strategy

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