阿西特·K.比斯瓦斯　塞西莉亞·托塔哈達 　杜磊

Soft power is the ability of a country to shape other countries’ views， attitudes， perceptions and actions without force or coercion. Exercising soft power， a state can attract supporters and partners towards its policies， views and actions. Its importance has been known for centuries， but the term was coined by Joseph Nye in the late 1980s.

The soft power of a country is dependent on many factors， including its economic performance， global image and international reputation.

It is often erroneously believed that China is a relative latecomer to soft power. But China has exercised soft power in different ways to the West， ways that have often been missed by Western experts， despite China historically having influenced large parts of Asia with its culture， knowledge and trade.

In contrast to the strident “America First” diplomacy of US President Donald Trump， China projects itself as a friendly， cooperative， generous and responsible country， enhancing its soft power.

Communicating China’s message to the world

In 2014， President Xi Jinping said， “We should increase China’s soft power， give a good Chinese narrative， and better communicate China’s message to the world.”

Xi followed this up with a powerful speech during the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. In it， he proposed “socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era” and the “realization of the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation.” This， Xi proclaimed， will offer “a new option for other countries and nations who want to speed up their development while preserving their independence; and it offers Chinese wisdom and a Chinese approach to solving the problems of mankind.”

Among the 2020-35 goals to be attained， Xi outlined steps to be taken to enhance China’s soft power， and the greater appeal of its culture. “We will improve our capacity for engaging in international communication so as to tell China’s stories well， present a true， multi-dimensional and panoramic view of China， and enhance our country’s soft power.”

China has accumulated considerable soft power through its long history， culture and philosophy. These have been complemented by its phenomenal economic growth over the past three decades. In 1980， its per capita GDP in purchasing power parity terms was $310. In 2017， this is expected to be $16，624， an increase of 53.6 times in only 37 years. During this period， it has lifted over 800 million people out of poverty. The world’s millennium development goals would not have been met without China’s performance.

China has also remarkably improved its infrastructure. In 2002， it had no high-speed rail network. By 2016， the network was 22，000 kilometers， accounting for 60 percent of the global high-speed railways. In 2020， this network will cover 30，000 km. It will connect 80 percent of all cities of more than one million people. By 2030， the network is expected to increase to 45，000 km.

Its unprecedented economic growth has given China enormous soft power. Politicians all over the world would like to replicate China’s economic growth and acquire its soft power.

China is playing major roles in other areas. Consider research and development. According to UNESCO， the R&D expenditure of high-income countries fell from 88 percent of the global total to 69.3 percent from 1996 to 2013. China alone filled this gap， increasing its share from a paltry 2.5 percent to 19.6 percent in 17 years. Recently， China’s average annual R&D expenditure growth has been 18.3 percent， compared to the anaemic growth rate in upper and middle income countries of 1.4 percent.

Increased educational and research activities have ensured that the number of foreign students in China are increasing rapidly. In 2016， China had 442，431 international students， a 35 percent increase over 2012. China now ranks third in attracting foreign students after the United States and the United Kingdom. With Chinese universities climbing up the global rankings， their rapid internationalization， policies encouraging foreign students to study in China， and affordability of study and living costs compared to the West， China will soon become the top destination for international students.

Of 5 million international students pursuing higher education courses outside their home countries， nearly 25 percent are Chinese. In 2016， American universities attracted 330，000 Chinese students， followed by 166，000 from India. The increasing numbers of Chinese students abroad and foreign students in China will further enhance its soft power.

In terms of culture， Italy， with 53， has the largest number of UNESCO World Heritage sites， China comes next with 52. Some 138 million tourists visited China in 2016. Similarly， 122 million Chinese visitors went abroad in 2016.

US’ soft power is declining under Trump

China’s economic success， massive infrastructural development， academic and research progress， cultural heritage and success in sports will continue to increase its soft power in the future. In contrast， the United States’ soft power is now in retreat with its “America first” policy， anti-globalization， anti-immigration， isolationism， anti-trade and anti-environmental policies. The policy differences between the two economic superpowers are now stark.

China will further increase its soft power through forward-looking actions and investments under its Belt and Road Initiative， the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region， the Yangtze River Economic Belt， as well as through the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development Bank.

Xi’s message to the world is a new approach which can facilitate “state-to-state relations with communication， not confrontation， with partnership and not alliances.” Through the Belt and Road Initiative and other major development initiatives， China expects “to achieve policy， infrastructure， trade， financial and people-to-people connectivity and thus build a new platform for international cooperation to create new drivers of shared development.”

During the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Vietnam， Trump reconfirmed his “America first” policy， stating the US will pursue only bilateral trade agreements that are “fair” and “reciprocal.” He did not address who will define what is fair. For a transactional， zero-sum， and “America first” president， multilateral trade agreements do not work， nor does the World Trade Organization. These will further decrease the soft power of the US.

In Vietnam， Xi noted globalization is an “irreversible historical trend，” and championed multilateral trading regimes. “We should uphold multilateralism， pursue shared growth through consultation and collaboration， forge closer partnerships and build a shared future for mankind.” Xi spoke of the digital economy， artificial intelligence and quantum science. He presented a vision of the future that is interconnected， comprehensive and win-win for all countries. He noted that development is a journey with no end， and invited “more countries to ride the fast train of Chinese development.”

China’s soft power is likely to increase significantly during the coming decades.

軟實力指一國無須通過武力或脅迫而能影響他國觀點、態(tài)度、感受乃至行為的能力。通過施展軟實力，一國能為其政策、觀點與行為贏得支持與合作。數(shù)世紀以來，軟實力的重要性已為人所知，但直到20世紀80年代，這一術語才被約瑟夫·奈提出。

一國的軟實力取決于很多因素，包括其經(jīng)濟水平、全球形象與國際聲望。

人們經(jīng)常錯誤地認為中國在軟實力方面相對起步較晚。但是，中國已通過不同方式向西方施展了軟實力，盡管從歷史上來看，中國文化、知識與貿(mào)易已經(jīng)影響了亞洲絕大部分地區(qū)，但這些方式常為西方專家所不察。

與美國總統(tǒng)特朗普推行強硬的 “美國優(yōu)先”外交政策迥然不同，中國展示了友好、合作、慷慨與負責的國家形象，提升了軟實力。

向世界傳播中國聲音

2014年，習近平提出，“我們要提高國家文化軟實力，講好中國故事，傳播好中國聲音?！?/p>

在中國共產(chǎn)黨第19次全國代表大會上，習近平發(fā)表了重要講話，進一步提出了“中國特色社會主義新時代”與“實現(xiàn)中華民族偉大復興的中國夢”，習近平表示，這“給世界上那些既希望加快發(fā)展又希望保持自身獨立性的國家和民族提供了全新選擇，為解決人類問題貢獻了中國智慧和中國方案?！?/p>

中國2020年至2035年奮斗目標之一是增強國家軟實力與文化吸引力，習近平概述了其步驟：“要推進國際傳播能力建設，講好中國故事，向世界展現(xiàn)真實、立體、全面的中國，提高國家文化軟實力?！?/p>

中國通過其悠久的歷史、文化與理念，積累起了強大的軟實力。過去30年來中國經(jīng)濟的巨大發(fā)展增強了這些軟實力。1980年，中國的人均國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（按購買力平價計算）為 310美元。2017年，這一數(shù)值有望達到16624美元，僅在37年內(nèi)就增長了53.6倍。在這一階段，中國使超過8億的人口脫貧。假如沒有中國的成就，全球千年發(fā)展目標就無法實現(xiàn)。

中國的基礎建設成果也十分矚目。2002年，中國還沒有建成高速鐵路網(wǎng)。到了2016年，中國的高速鐵路網(wǎng)總里程已達2.2萬公里，占全球高速鐵路網(wǎng)的60%;2020年，預計將達3萬公里，覆蓋全國80%百萬以上人口的城市;到2030年，將有望拓展到4.5萬公里。

史無前例的經(jīng)濟增長賦予了中國巨大的軟實力。全世界的政界人士都希望復制中國經(jīng)濟的增長模式，獲得這樣的軟實力。

在其他領域，中國正發(fā)揮著關鍵作用。如在研發(fā)領域，聯(lián)合國教科文組織統(tǒng)計得出，1996年至2013年，高收入國家的研發(fā)費用全球占比從88%降到了69.3%。中國一國之力便填補了這一缺口。17年間，中國的研發(fā)費用占比從微不足道的2.5%提高到了19.6%。近年來，中國的研發(fā)投入年均增長率達到18.3%，而中高收入國家只有1.4%的疲軟增長。

教育與研究活動不斷增加，確保了來中國的海外學生數(shù)量快速增長。2016年，來中國的留學生數(shù)量為442431人，相比2012年增加了35%。在吸引海外學生方面，2016年，中國排名第三，僅次于美國與英國。中國大學國際排名的攀升和高速的國際化，吸引留學生的政策，以及較西方國家低廉的學費與生活開支，使中國不久將成為國際學生的首選國家。

全球到海外接受高等教育的500萬留學生中，近25%來自中國。2016年，美國大學吸引到了33萬名中國學生，其次是16.6萬印度學生。海外中國留學生與國內(nèi)外國留學生數(shù)量的不斷增長將進一步提升中國軟實力。

在文化層面，意大利有53處經(jīng)聯(lián)合國教科文組織認定的世界文化遺產(chǎn)，數(shù)量最多，中國則以52處位居第二。2016年，中國接待了約1.38億游客。同樣，中國的出境游人次達1.22億。

特朗普治下的美國軟實力正在下降

中國的經(jīng)濟成就、大規(guī)模基礎建設的發(fā)展、學術與研究的進步、文化遺產(chǎn)以及體育成就將在未來持續(xù)提升其軟實力。相比之下，美國的軟實力卻因“美國優(yōu)先”政策、反全球化、反移民、孤立主義、逆貿(mào)易與反環(huán)保政策而下降。兩個經(jīng)濟超級大國政策上的差異十分顯著。

中國將通過“一帶一路”倡議下的前瞻性行動和投資、京津冀地區(qū)的協(xié)同發(fā)展、長江經(jīng)濟帶的打造、亞洲基礎設施投資銀行以及金磚國家新開發(fā)銀行的建立，進一步增強其軟實力。

習近平向世界傳達的信息可促進國與國交往走上“對話而不對抗、結伴而不結盟”的新路。通過“一帶一路”倡議與其他重大發(fā)展項目，中國希望“努力實現(xiàn)政策溝通、設施聯(lián)通、貿(mào)易暢通、資金融通、民心相通，打造國際合作新平臺，增添共同發(fā)展新動力”。

在越南召開的亞太經(jīng)濟合作組織領導人會議上，特朗普重申了他的“美國優(yōu)先”政策，聲稱美國將只追求 “公平”與“互惠互利”的雙邊貿(mào)易協(xié)定。他沒有提到誰來定義什么是公平。對一個只講交易、追求零和博弈與“美國優(yōu)先”的總統(tǒng)來說，多邊貿(mào)易協(xié)定行不通，世界貿(mào)易組織也無法起作用。這些因素將進一步削弱美國的軟實力。

習近平在越南指出，全球化是“不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的時代潮流”，他倡導多邊貿(mào)易體制?！皥猿侄噙呏髁x，謀求共商共建共享，建立緊密伙伴關系，構建人類命運共同體。”習近平談到了數(shù)字經(jīng)濟、人工智能和量子科學，描繪了一幅各國互聯(lián)、全面、共贏的未來圖景。他指出，發(fā)展是一場永無止境的旅程，并邀請“更多國家搭乘中國發(fā)展的快車”。

未來幾十年，中國的軟實力可能會顯著增強。

（譯者單位：浙江大學外國語言文化與國際交流學院）