愛麗絲·龐

We are in the middle of another technology revolution. The digital economy will contribute 48% of GDP in China in 2035， up from 23% in 2020， according to the Boston Consulting Group1. The sector “Information Transmission， Software and Information Technology Services” grew 14.8% in 2019. We estimate that this growth rate could accelerate to 22% per year on average between 2020 and 2025 （even taking technology friction with the US into account） due to the implementation of 5G， consumer AI， the industrial Internet of Things， smart cities， and the Internet of Vehicles2.

The current market for “smart city” technology in China is estimated at CNY181 billion by the IDC3 in 2020， which is equivalent to just 0.18% of GDP but will increase to 0.3% of GDP in 2025. The market value does not net out the potential saving of lives and prevention of economic loss from outcomes such as flood or disease prevention/reduction， which could be huge.

Covid-19 showcases the advantages of smart cities

Smart cities are no longer just a concept. Indeed， in a surprising silver lining4 to the Covid-19 pandemic， smart city apps have shown they can help China contain the spread of the virus， helping to turn the economy from contraction5 in 1Q20 to growth in 2Q20. We saw some smart city apps in Wuhan during the Covid-19 pandemic， and later， in other parts of China.

In China， the smart system for Covid-19 is called the Health Code， with red， yellow， or green symbols to identify whether a person is potentially a high-risk candidate for Covid-19 infection or not.

The colour code system began as one of the functions of a very popular payment app originally for the apps staff in China， then later developed as a national standard function in some popular apps. The apps new Covid-19 function indicates whether a person can enter public places， e.g. the wet markets， or public transportation， based on calculations on whether that person has had contact with or gathered around people who are identified as confirmed Covid-19 cases. The calculations use input from sensors and surveillance cameras installed in the street and also on smart street lights. The Health Code has avoided the need to over-tighten social distancing measures that could result in a huge economic loss while at the same time identifying possible infection cases， and its managed to reduce infection rates in cities where it has been used.

Other examples include applications for better traffic management when there is an accident， sewage leak alarms and apps for flood control and crime reduction.

Smart street lights are at the heart of Chinas smart cities

The number of smart street lights required in China is estimated at 13 million assuming a 30% penetration rate of all street lights in 2025. This would take the market for smart street lights from an estimated CNY11.8 billion in 2019 to CNY59 billion by 2025. Most of the investment will be via public-private partnerships with local governments. We believe that the speed of building smart cities in Beijing， Shanghai， Guangzhou， Shenzhen， Hangzhou will be faster than the national average as they have already had more local government investment， according to the Annual Report on the Development of the Internet of Cities in China6.

When the network of smart street lights increases further， it will also likely expand to cover more functions. In addition to basic lighting， it could include surveillance cameras， auto-police calling when the data shows abnormalities， traffic management， weather information collection and display， sewage system fault detection， Wi-Fi hotspots converting telecommunication signals from 4G/5G， e-vehicle chargers， signal senders and as a facilitator7 for driverless cars.

5G+AI parking

Parking in a busy traffic city has been a big problem for city management. For example， Shenzhen has combined 5G and AI to enhance the efficiency of car park usage. There are more than 3.5 million motor vehicles but there are only 1.69 million parking spaces in car parks. To solve this problem， the local government is partnering with corporates to enhance the efficiency of the usage of existing parking spaces in hospitals， tourism spots， transportation hubs， airports， commercial districts， and a large stadium. For example， drivers can seamlessly book a parking space at a hospital at the same time as scheduling a doctors appointment. Drivers do not need to worry about whether there is enough parking space and arrive early to wait for a space or to occupy the parking space for longer than needed. Drivers also know if all of the parking spaces are occupied at the time of the doctors appointment and can choose other transportation.

Auto-valet parking8 is also increasing in popularity. This is not only to help drivers save time in the car park but also to increase the number of car parks in limited floor space. Robots and sensors installed in the car parks work together to find a space and park the car for drivers. This needs a precise indoor location system using combined technology of 5G and AI. For example， there is a 20-storey auto-valet car park building， which has 387 parking lots in a high-rise building which takes up only 638 square metres in Chongqing city. The land price for this high rise parking facility costs CNY3.4 million instead of CNY61.5 million for the same number of parking lots in an ordinary car park. The saved land costs should bring down the cost of parking and， at the same time， provide a more convenient parking service.

Costs of smart cities

With more technology applications， there is bound to be disruption to existing activities and the labour they require. If smart cities help driverless cars to take off， the thousands of drivers of taxis or delivery drivers that find low skilled employment in Chinas cities could be displaced and struggle to find alternative employment. New jobs will certainly arise from the implementation of smart city technology， but will likely require different skills and knowledge to those being displaced. The government will need to assist those whose employment is disrupted to find alternatives.

Our ‘guesstimate9 is that by 2030， Beijing， Shanghai， Guangdong， Shenzhen and Hangzhou could be experienced practitioners of smart city technology. And by 2035， most locations in China could enjoy some smart city functions. This means that the Chinese economy could achieve urbanisation at a faster speed.? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?■

我們處于又一場技術(shù)革命之中。根據(jù)波士頓咨詢集團的數(shù)據(jù)，到2035年，數(shù)字經(jīng)濟在中國GDP中的占比將從2020年的23%上升至48%。2019年，“信息傳輸、軟件和信息技術(shù)服務(wù)”領(lǐng)域增長了14.8%。由于對5G、消費類人工智能產(chǎn)品、工業(yè)物聯(lián)網(wǎng)、智慧城市和車聯(lián)網(wǎng)等技術(shù)的應(yīng)用，（即便將與美國的技術(shù)摩擦考慮在內(nèi)，）預(yù)計該領(lǐng)域的年均增長率仍將在2020年至2025年期間加速升至22%。

2020年，國際數(shù)據(jù)公司估計，目前中國“智慧城市”技術(shù)市場規(guī)模為1810億元，僅相當于GDP的0.18%;但到了2025年，將上升至GDP的0.3%。洪災(zāi)和疾病等可能造成生命和經(jīng)濟的巨大損失，建設(shè)智慧城市可預(yù)防/減少洪災(zāi)和疾病等的發(fā)生，從而避免損失——上述預(yù)估市場規(guī)模沒有涵蓋這方面因素。

新冠疫情凸顯智慧城市優(yōu)勢

智慧城市不再只是一個概念。實際上，智慧城市應(yīng)用程序已表明它們可以幫助中國遏制新冠病毒傳播，促使經(jīng)濟從2020年一季度的收縮轉(zhuǎn)為二季度的增長，這是疫情的一個意外收獲。在新冠疫情期間，我們在武漢看到了一些智慧城市應(yīng)用程序;隨后，它們也出現(xiàn)在了中國其他地區(qū)。

在中國，防疫智慧系統(tǒng)被稱為健康碼，有紅色、黃色或綠色標識，用于識別一個人是否具有感染新冠的高風險性。

健康碼最初是一款極為流行的支付應(yīng)用程序上的一項功能，僅為該程序的中國員工使用，后來發(fā)展成為某些流行應(yīng)用程序的國家標準功能。該應(yīng)用程序的新款防疫功能可以計算一個人是否與新冠確診病例接觸或聚集過，由此顯示其是否可以進入公共空間，比如進入生鮮市場或乘坐公共交通工具。計算的輸入源來自街道和智能路燈上安裝的傳感器和監(jiān)控攝像頭。健康碼不僅可以識別疑似感染病例，還避免了可能造成巨大經(jīng)濟損失的過度社交距離措施;在使用健康碼的城市，感染率因此而降低。

其他例子包括發(fā)生交通事故時的交通優(yōu)化管理應(yīng)用程序、污水泄漏警報應(yīng)用程序、防汛及防犯罪應(yīng)用程序。

智能路燈是中國智慧城市的核心

到2025年，假設(shè)智能路燈的普及率達到30%，那么中國大約需要1300萬盞智能路燈。這將使得智能路燈市場的規(guī)模從2019年估算的118億元增長為2025年的590億元。大多數(shù)投資將通過與地方政府的公私合作進行?！吨袊鞘谢ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)發(fā)展報告（2020）》顯示，北京、上海、廣州、深圳和杭州已經(jīng)獲得了更多的地方政府投資，因此我們認為這些城市的智慧城市建設(shè)速度將快于全國平均水平。

智能路燈網(wǎng)絡(luò)進一步擴展后，可能會包含更多功能。除基本照明外，還可能包含監(jiān)控攝像頭、數(shù)據(jù)異常自動報警、交通管理、天氣信息采集與顯示、污水系統(tǒng)故障檢測、轉(zhuǎn)換4G / 5G電信信號的Wi-Fi熱點、電動汽車充電器、信號發(fā)射器、無人駕駛汽車輔助工具等功能。

5G +人工智能停車

在交通繁忙的城市，停車一直是城市管理的一大難題。例如，深圳已將5G與人工智能相結(jié)合，以提高停車場的使用效率。深圳有超過350萬輛汽車，但只有169萬個停車位。為了解決這個問題，地方政府與企業(yè)合作，提高醫(yī)院、旅游景點、交通樞紐、機場、商業(yè)區(qū)和一座大型體育場現(xiàn)有停車位的使用效率。例如，駕駛員可以在預(yù)約醫(yī)生的同時無縫預(yù)訂醫(yī)院的停車位，無須擔心是否有足夠的停車位，也無須提前到達等車位或占用停車位超過必要時長。駕駛員還可以知道就診時段的停車位是否已經(jīng)被全部占用，以便選乘其他交通工具。

自動代客泊車也越來越普及。它不僅可以幫助駕駛員節(jié)省停車時間，還可以在有限的占地面積內(nèi)增加停車場的數(shù)量。停車場中安裝的機器人和傳感器協(xié)同工作尋找空車位，并代替駕駛員泊車。這需要結(jié)合使用5G與人工智能技術(shù)，建立一個精確的室內(nèi)定位系統(tǒng)。例如，在重慶市有一棟20層高自動代客泊車大樓，這座高層建筑有387個停車位，占地面積僅638平方米。這棟高層停車樓的土地價格為340萬元人民幣，而一片車位數(shù)量相同的普通停車場的土地價格為6150萬元人民幣。節(jié)省的土地成本可以降低停車費用，同時提供更便捷的停車服務(wù)。

智慧城市的成本

技術(shù)的更多應(yīng)用勢必會打破現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)業(yè)格局及勞動力結(jié)構(gòu)。如果智慧城市能夠幫助無人駕駛汽車實現(xiàn)快速發(fā)展，那么成千上萬原本在中國城市里從事低技能工作的出租車司機或貨車司機可能下崗，難以找到下一份工作。智慧城市技術(shù)的應(yīng)用的確會創(chuàng)造新的工作機會，但這些下崗人員并不具備這些職位所需的技能和知識。政府需要幫這些失業(yè)者實現(xiàn)再就業(yè)。

我們“粗略估算”，到2030年，北京、上海、廣東、深圳和杭州將成為經(jīng)驗豐富的智慧城市技術(shù)實踐者。到2035年，中國大部分地區(qū)都會具備一些智慧城市功用。這意味著中國經(jīng)濟可以更快地實現(xiàn)城市化。? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? □

（譯者為“《英語世界》杯”翻譯大賽獲獎?wù)?單位：四川工商職業(yè)技術(shù)學院）

1一家知名的美國企業(yè)管理咨詢公司，公司創(chuàng)始人布魯斯·亨德森（Bruce Henderson）在1968年提出了管理學界極為著名的“波士頓矩陣”。? 2車聯(lián)網(wǎng)是以行駛中的車輛為信息感知對象，借助新一代信息通信技術(shù)，實現(xiàn)車與云平臺、車與車、車與路、車與人、車內(nèi)互聯(lián)等全方位網(wǎng)絡(luò)連接。? 3國際數(shù)據(jù)公司（英文全稱International Data Corporation），全球著名的信息技術(shù)、電信行業(yè)和消費科技市場咨詢服務(wù)提供商。

4 silver lining（失望或不幸中的）一點希望。? 5 contraction收縮;消減。

6該報告由清華大學技術(shù)創(chuàng)新研究中心、城云科技（中國）有限公司和首都國投控股有限公司合作編寫而成，從多角度展現(xiàn)數(shù)字城市，特別是城市互聯(lián)網(wǎng)在我國的發(fā)展狀況。? 7 facilitator推動者。

8自動代客泊車，英文簡稱AVP，指使用應(yīng)用程序讓車輛可以在沒有司機的情況下泊車和取回。該技術(shù)還涵蓋自動洗車、電動汽車自動充電等功能，是目前戴姆勒、福特、奔馳等眾多車商正在角逐的新興技術(shù)。

9 guesstimate大概估計。