穆喜云1 李顯玉1* 敖鐵勝　李秀華　徐國力　楊旭亮　蘆特

摘 要：楊潛葉葉蜂（Messa taianensis Xiao et Zhou）在內(nèi)蒙古地區(qū)被首次發(fā)現(xiàn)。通過調(diào)查研究，對楊潛葉葉蜂進行危害程度等級劃分及危險性分析，并參照有害生物危險性分析（Pest Risk Analysis，簡寫PRA）方法，對楊潛葉葉蜂的危險性進行定量分析。結(jié)果表明，失葉率（%）與蟲口密度（條/百葉）呈指數(shù)曲線擬合關(guān)系，決定系數(shù)為0.964，驗證模型的平均估測精度為86.508%。楊潛葉葉蜂的危害程度等級為輕度（蟲口數(shù)量<60條/百葉）、中度（61～124條/百葉）、重度（>125條/百葉）。危險性綜合評價值R為1.62，介于中度危險范圍（1.5≤R<2.0），屬于中度危險性生物。

關(guān)鍵詞： 楊潛葉葉蜂;危害分級;危險性分析

中圖分類號 S763.38? 文獻標識碼 A文章編號 1007-7731（2021）17-0125-03

Risk Analysis and Damage Degree on Messa taianensis Xiao et Zhou

MU XiYun1 et al.

（1Forestry Research Institute of Chifeng， Chifeng 024000， China）

Abstract： Messa taianensis Xiao et Zhou was first discovered in Inner Mongolia， through the investigation we done the research on the damage degree grading and danger risk analysis. The loss rate of leaf （%） and population density of one hundred leaf of Messa taianensis Xiao et Zhou performed as exponential curve better fitting relationship. The model determination coefficient was 0.964 and the average estimate precision of the validation model was 86.508%. Its damage degree grade can be divided into mild （population quantity<60 item/ hundred leaf）， medium （61～124 item/hundred leaf） and severe （>125 item/hundred leaf）. Reference with the Pest Risk Analysis （Pest Risk Analysis， （PRA） method， we done the quantitative analysis of the danger of the pest and calculated the risk value R was 1.62， between moderately risk range： 1.5≤R<2.0， belongs to the moderately dangerous creature.

Key words： Messa taianensis Xiao et Zhou; Damage degree;Risk Analysis