Black Swans and Other Disasters

黑天鵝與其他災(zāi)難

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has been all over the comments pages of the news since last September.The pugnacious Lebanese trader opposes market orthodoxies, and believes that most of current financial theory is based on stupid principles.He claims that most traders and bankers simply don't understand statistics and chance, and in his best-selling books The Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness, outlines why.

去年九月以來(lái)，納西姆?尼古拉斯?塔勒布一直是新聞評(píng)論的焦點(diǎn)人物。這名好斗的黎巴嫩證券經(jīng)紀(jì)人反對(duì)正統(tǒng)的市場(chǎng)學(xué)說(shuō)，相信當(dāng)今大多數(shù)金融理論都是建立在愚蠢的原理之上。他聲稱(chēng)，大多數(shù)證券經(jīng)紀(jì)人和銀行家根本不懂統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)與隨機(jī)性，他的暢銷(xiāo)書(shū)《黑天鵝》與《隨機(jī)致富的傻瓜》對(duì)此做出了解釋。

'Black Swans,' as defined by Taleb, are unexpected events, ones that lie outside our normal expectations.He draws this example from the arguments of European naturalists that all swans were white - because all the swans they'd seen were - which was then overturned by the discovery of black swans in Australia.His point in the book is that these events should be expected - not the exact nature of the event, but that chaotic and unlikely events happen all the time, and so we should always be prepared for devastating financial and other catastrophes.

根據(jù)塔勒布的定義，“黑天鵝”是無(wú)法預(yù)期之事，在我們正常的預(yù)料之外。這個(gè)例子來(lái)自歐洲自然學(xué)家。以前歐洲的自然學(xué)家都堅(jiān)持所有的天鵝都是白的，因?yàn)樗麄円?jiàn)過(guò)的所有天鵝都是如此，但當(dāng)黑天鵝在澳大利亞被發(fā)現(xiàn)時(shí)，這一說(shuō)法就被推翻。他書(shū)中的觀點(diǎn)是，雖然我們無(wú)法得知事情的本質(zhì)，但紛亂與不太可能發(fā)生的事總在發(fā)生，我們應(yīng)該預(yù)見(jiàn)這些事情，并隨時(shí)做好迎接毀滅性金融危機(jī)與其他災(zāi)難的準(zhǔn)備。

Taleb also argues that we overrate individuals and institutions who often succeed by pure chance.His examples here are often weak when he steps outside the areas he knows; it's quite clear, for instance, that his understanding of publishing is shallow and misinformed.On areas he does know, however, he's very interesting.These are worthwhile books for anyone looking to understand the chaotic state of the world.

塔勒布還認(rèn)為，我們過(guò)于抬舉了常常僅靠運(yùn)氣成功的個(gè)人與組織。在其熟知的領(lǐng)域之外，他的例子就變得沒(méi)什么說(shuō)服力了。比如，很明顯，他對(duì)出版的理解就是淺薄而無(wú)知的。但在其熟知的領(lǐng)域，他就變得非常有趣。如果您想了解當(dāng)今紛亂復(fù)雜的世界，塔勒布的書(shū)還是很不錯(cuò)的。

Scary But Fun: The Graveyard Book

《墓園之書(shū)》：嚇人但有趣

Neil Gaiman's new children's fantasy, The Graveyard Book, is a massive bestseller - when I tried to buy a copy in Hong Kong only a few weeks after the book was out, they were all sold out! Taking its inspiration from Kipling's children's classic The Jungle Book, about a boy raised by wolves in the Indian jungle, it tells the story of Nobody Owens, a young boy abandoned in a graveyard and raised by ghosts! It just won the Newberry Medal, the most prestigious prize for childrens literature.

尼爾?蓋曼的兒童奇幻新作《墓園之書(shū)》非常暢銷(xiāo)，該書(shū)出版后僅數(shù)周，我想在香港買(mǎi)一本，但已經(jīng)賣(mài)完了！作者的靈感來(lái)自吉普林兒童經(jīng)典《森林王子》（一本講述一名男孩在印度叢林里被狼養(yǎng)大的書(shū)），書(shū)中一名叫諾柏迪?歐文斯的男孩被人遺棄在墓地，然后被幽靈撫養(yǎng)大！《墓園之書(shū)》剛剛榮獲紐伯里獎(jiǎng)，這是最知名的兒童文學(xué)獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)。

While written for intelligent kids, it can certainly be enjoyed by adults too. Its grim whimsy and charming illustrations make it a delightful read. Nobody is helped by an array of ghouls, goblins, and things that go bump in the night; his two chief tutors are a vampire and a werewolf. His family was brutally murdered by a vicious killer known only as 'Jack' - the equivalent of the menacing tiger Shere Khan in The Jungle Book - and he has to learn how to outwit and defeat Jack's efforts to kill him too. All this sounds rather disturbing for kids, but children eat up this kind of grisly fun, and the book has strong moral messages about friendship, trust, and cunning as well. Thoroughly recommended.

雖然它是寫(xiě)給聰明的孩子們的，但也適宜成人品讀。書(shū)中充滿奇思異想，畫(huà)風(fēng)優(yōu)美，讀起來(lái)饒有趣味。諾柏迪得到了一個(gè)個(gè)盜尸者、小妖怪和在晚上出沒(méi)的東西的幫助，他的兩個(gè)主要監(jiān)護(hù)人是一個(gè)吸血鬼和一個(gè)狼人。他的家人慘遭惡人殺害，只知道兇手叫“杰克”，就如同《森里王子》里邪惡的老虎Shere Khan，他必須學(xué)著以智取勝，躲過(guò)“杰克”的謀殺。這些聽(tīng)起來(lái)是少兒不宜，但孩子們卻樂(lè)此不疲地享受這種恐怖的趣味。該書(shū)也傳達(dá)了強(qiáng)烈道德信息，關(guān)于友誼、信任與狡猾。很值得推薦。

Who Will Watch the Watchmen?

誰(shuí)來(lái)守護(hù)守望者？

The most hotly anticipated movie of 2009, at least for a large segment of the movie-going public, is Zack Snyder's new superhero film Watchmen. Based on an acclaimed graphic novel by eccentric British genius Alan Moore and artist Dave Gibbons, rumours about its adaptation as a movie have been circling ever since its 1986 release in comic book form.

2009年最令人期待的電影，至少對(duì)許多影迷來(lái)說(shuō)，是扎克?施奈德的超級(jí)英雄新片《守望者》。該片根據(jù)英國(guó)怪才阿倫?摩爾和畫(huà)家達(dá)夫?吉布森創(chuàng)作的著名漫畫(huà)小說(shuō)改編而成，自1986年該系列漫畫(huà)書(shū)問(wèn)世以來(lái)，有關(guān)這部小說(shuō)拍成電影的傳聞一直層出不窮。

The original graphic novel details a world where history has been changed by the presence of costumed heroes who fight crime. Only one of them is truly a 'superhero' - the enigmatic Dr. Manhattan, a victim of a nuclear accident who can now perceive the workings of time and space, and has virtually unlimited power; the others are simply extremely skilled - and often mentally disturbed - men and women.Most have retired by the start of the book.

在原漫畫(huà)小說(shuō)中，歷史因打擊犯罪的化裝英雄的出現(xiàn)而改變。其中只有一人是真正的“超級(jí)英雄”，即神秘的曼哈頓博士，他是一次核事故的受害者，能覺(jué)察到時(shí)空造化，擁有無(wú)窮無(wú)盡的本領(lǐng)；其他人只是技術(shù)高超的男男女女，但往往精神有問(wèn)題。在本書(shū)開(kāi)篇時(shí)，他們大都已退隱。

Watchmen's themes include security, war, love, and determinism. With a dense and intricate plot and superb use of both graphics and text, the novel is an absolute classic, and many fans are worried that the movie won't live up to their dreams. Early reviews of the film are mixed, with some praising it enthusiastically and others calling it cluttered and boring.We'll have to wait and see what moviegoers make of this epic – sales of the original book have already shot through the roof, though!With luck, the film will be worthy of its name.

《守望者》的主題包括安全、戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、愛(ài)情和決心。情節(jié)緊湊而復(fù)雜 ，文字與插畫(huà)一流，小說(shuō)絕對(duì)是經(jīng)典，許多粉絲擔(dān)心電影達(dá)不到他們的期望。早期對(duì)該電影的評(píng)價(jià)褒貶不一， 有人熱情地贊揚(yáng)它，有人說(shuō)它雜亂而無(wú)聊。我們還得等等，看影迷如何評(píng)價(jià)這部史詩(shī)巨作，不過(guò)原書(shū)早已經(jīng)大賣(mài)。運(yùn)氣好的話，這部電影還配得上這個(gè)名字。

Slumdog Triumph: the 2009 Oscars

2009年奧斯卡：“貧民窟”的勝利

Slumdog Millionaire, a romantic and brutal story about a young man rising to quiz show fame after an upbringing in the Mumbai slums, swept the board at the Oscars this month. With eight awards, including the two most coveted prizes of Best Director and Best Picture, it trounced all opposition. Slumdog Millionaire has been a clear favourite for the last two months after proving an instant hit with audiences.

《貧民窟的百萬(wàn)富翁》，一個(gè)浪漫而殘忍的故事， 故事中一名自小在孟買(mǎi)貧民窟長(zhǎng)大的青年因參加答題節(jié)目而聲名大噪。該片在本月的奧斯卡頒獎(jiǎng)典禮上大獲全勝。它獨(dú)領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷，收獲八項(xiàng)大獎(jiǎng)，包括最令人垂涎的最佳導(dǎo)演獎(jiǎng)和最佳影片獎(jiǎng)。《貧民窟的百萬(wàn)富翁》一上線就博得廣大影迷的好評(píng)，兩個(gè)月來(lái)一直是奪獎(jiǎng)大熱門(mén)。

The results were generally predictable, with the only mild upset being Sean Penn's Best Actor win for Milk, where he plays a pioneering gay politician. Many critics had called 2008 a 'weak year', especially in contrast with 2007's crop of highly successful, but also critically acclaimed, movies such as No Country For Old Men. In contrast, this year the movies that made most critics' top ten lists, such as minimalist road movie Wendy and Lucy and Romanian abortion-drama 4 Months, 3 Weeks And 2 Days, received no nominations.

結(jié)果基本上與預(yù)期吻合，唯一一點(diǎn)例外是西恩?潘憑借《米爾克》獲封最佳男主角，片中他飾演一名有開(kāi)創(chuàng)精神的同性戀政治家。很多影評(píng)人稱(chēng)2008年為“疲軟之年”，尤其是與2007年相比，因?yàn)?007年有多部票房成功、評(píng)價(jià)也高的電影，如《老無(wú)所依》。而在今年，最受影評(píng)人青睞的十大電影，如抽象的公路電影《溫蒂和露西》和羅馬尼亞關(guān)于墮胎的電影《四月三周兩天》都未獲得提名。

The awards ceremony itself was hosted by Hugh Jackman, who enthusiastically performed a wide range of musical numbers. Famous critic Roger Ebert praised it as 'The best Oscar night I've seen - and I've seen plenty' - but viewers didn't agree, making this one of the least watched Oscars ever, although numbers were still ahead of last year's pitiful viewing figures. It was a night without any great surprises - but who knows what the next year will bring in cinema?

頒獎(jiǎng)典禮由休?杰克曼主持，他在現(xiàn)場(chǎng)又唱又跳。著名的影評(píng)人羅格?埃伯特稱(chēng)贊說(shuō)，這是“我看過(guò)不少奧斯卡之夜，但這次是我見(jiàn)過(guò)最棒的?！钡^眾卻并不領(lǐng)情，本次奧斯卡頒獎(jiǎng)典禮是觀眾最少的一屆之一， 不過(guò)觀眾仍比少得可憐的上一屆要多。奧斯卡之夜沒(méi)有大的驚奇，但誰(shuí)知道明年電影院又會(huì)有什么呢？

Bob Dylan to Release 'Surprise' New Album in April

鮑勃?迪倫四月發(fā)行新專(zhuān)輯

Bob Dylan has announced a 'surprise' new album to be released this month. The as-yet untitled album will be Dylan's first studio release since 2006's Modern Times.

鮑勃?迪倫宣布，四月將發(fā)行“令人意想不到的”新專(zhuān)輯。專(zhuān)輯還沒(méi)有名字，它將是迪倫自2006年的《摩登時(shí)代》之后的第一張錄音室唱片。

The album comes just a few months after Tell Tale Signs, a compilation of outtakes, and was itself inspired by a one-off tune for filmmaker Olivier Dahan. The director of La Vie En Rose asked Dylan to write a song for My Own Love Song, his upcoming movie starring Renée Zellweger. The result was Life Is Hard, a bleak, mandolin-stung ballad. But Dylan didn't stop there – he kept writing and recording with his road band, putting ten new originals to tape.

精選集《講述傳說(shuō)的符號(hào)》推出才幾個(gè)月，鮑勃在為導(dǎo)演奧利維埃?達(dá)昂創(chuàng)作電影原聲時(shí)受到啟發(fā)，決定創(chuàng)作新專(zhuān)輯。達(dá)昂曾執(zhí)導(dǎo)《玫瑰人生》，他請(qǐng)迪倫為其下一部電影《我自己的情歌》寫(xiě)一首歌，該電影由芮妮?齊薇格主演。迪倫寫(xiě)了《生活不易》，一首悲傷的民謠。但迪倫并沒(méi)有就此停止，他繼續(xù)和自己的巡演樂(lè)隊(duì)創(chuàng)作并錄音，為新專(zhuān)輯收錄了10首新歌。

As always, Dylan served as his own producer, working under the pseudonym Jack Frost. The album is filled with 'raw-country love songs, sly wordplay' and a 'seductive border-cafe feel', according to Rolling Stone. Accordion features on every track, thanks to Los Lobos' David Hidalgo.

跟往常一樣，迪倫自己擔(dān)當(dāng)制作人，化名為杰克?福斯特?！稘L石》雜志表示，專(zhuān)輯里都是“純正愛(ài)情民謠，巧妙的文字游戲”，給人以“在國(guó)界邊的咖啡館里喝咖啡的誘人感覺(jué)”。 每一首歌都有合唱團(tuán)灰狼一族大衛(wèi)?希達(dá)格的手風(fēng)琴配樂(lè)。

Besides struggling with love on songs like This Dream Of You and Beyond Here Lies Nothin', Dylan also addresses the dismal state of the world economy.

除了在《你的夢(mèng)想》和《只能在此撒謊》等歌曲里與愛(ài)抗?fàn)帲蟼愡€將在專(zhuān)輯里論及世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的慘狀。

Roommates – Just a Warmed Up Friends?

《新同居時(shí)代》——《老友記》的翻版？

Roommates, a new show on major American channel ABC, follows a group of friends in New York City trying to figure out love and life in their post-collegiate years. Loveable but awkward Mark stumbles upon his dream come true when he runs into his old high-school crush, Katie, and becomes her new roommate in an attempt to finally win her heart. Unfortunately for Mark, Katie is still in love with her on-again/off-again boyfriend. Further complicating matters, Mark doesn't hit it off with Katies best friend and roommate, Hope, a strong willed executive who Mark learns, unbeknownst to her fellow roommates, has lost her job and now secretly works at a coffee shop. The fourth and final apartment mate is James, who works in the investment world and takes great pleasure in watching Mark's feeble attempts to win Katie's favor. Rounding out the group is Mark's former roommate and best friend, Thom, a quirky guy who takes an instant liking to Hope.

《新同居時(shí)代》，美國(guó)廣播公司的新劇，講述的是紐約市一群年青朋友在大學(xué)畢業(yè)后試圖參透愛(ài)情和生活真諦的故事?？蓯?ài)而笨拙的馬克偶遇到自己高中時(shí)喜歡的凱蒂后感覺(jué)自己夢(mèng)想成真，為贏得佳人芳心，他跟凱蒂住在了一起。很不幸，凱蒂仍愛(ài)著她的男朋友，雖然二人總是分分合合。馬克跟凱蒂的好朋友兼室友霍普合不來(lái)，這令事情更加復(fù)雜。霍普是一個(gè)性子直的經(jīng)理，馬克得知她已失業(yè)，瞞著室友在一家咖啡店打工。第四個(gè)人，即最后一名室友是詹姆斯，他在投資銀行工作，很喜歡看馬克徒勞地向凱蒂獻(xiàn)殷勤。打圓場(chǎng)的是馬克的前室友，也是他最好的朋友索恩，索恩性格乖僻，但很快就喜歡上了霍普。

Based on the promos for the show, the series looks like any other formulaic sitcom - it's an almost carbon copy of the setup for the original Friends - but it could be worth checking out.Networks long for this kind of 20-something demographic hit, like the current How I Met Your Mother, but they're fatally dependent on the chemistry between the cast and the talent of the writers. This doesn't look like anything special, but who knows?

根據(jù)預(yù)告片，該劇跟其他俗套的情景喜劇差別不大，幾乎是《老友記》的翻版，但值得看看。電視臺(tái)喜歡放這種一集20分鐘的熱播劇，如現(xiàn)在的《老爸老媽的浪漫史》，但他們嚴(yán)重依賴演員間的默契和編劇的才華。這部戲看起來(lái)并不特別，但誰(shuí)又知道呢？