2012年10月《中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)雷達(dá)月報(bào)》數(shù)據(jù)顯示,當(dāng)月中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)為0.7242,環(huán)比上升0.0178個(gè)指數(shù)點(diǎn),上升2.5198%,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)上升表明中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總體水平上升。同期,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率為7.7392%,環(huán)比上升0.0957個(gè)百分點(diǎn),上升1.2520%;價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)率為1.9428%,環(huán)比下降0.1181個(gè)百分點(diǎn),下降5.7305%,數(shù)據(jù)表明,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)上升幅度大于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)上升幅度,未來(lái)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨于正面。
數(shù)據(jù)顯示,當(dāng)月中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)中,投資占GDP比重為64.9843%,相比上月的64.6699%環(huán)比上升0.3144個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。扣除20%的合理投資比例部分,當(dāng)月中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中有44.9843%是通過(guò)超量投資和GDP轉(zhuǎn)換實(shí)現(xiàn)的,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率是4.2578%,比上月4.2292%上升0.0286個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。數(shù)據(jù)表明,盡管中國(guó)實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率由降轉(zhuǎn)升,但其中投資泡沫更加濃厚。(見圖1)
數(shù)據(jù)顯示,當(dāng)月中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)為0.7242,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)監(jiān)測(cè)雷達(dá)顯示黃燈(見圖2)。在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)雷達(dá)12個(gè)大類指數(shù)中,只有人民生活指數(shù)是藍(lán)燈,是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的唯一正面因素;服務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)、社會(huì)就業(yè)指數(shù)、財(cái)政金融指數(shù)綠燈,是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的穩(wěn)定因素;經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指數(shù)、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)、市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行指數(shù)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指數(shù)黃燈,是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的負(fù)面因素;工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)、國(guó)際貿(mào)易指數(shù)、資源環(huán)境指數(shù)和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)紫燈,是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的危險(xiǎn)因素。
當(dāng)月美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率從上月的2.2010%上升到2.2778%,環(huán)比上升0.0768個(gè)百分點(diǎn);同期,歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率從上月的-0.3973%變?yōu)?0.1118%,環(huán)比上升0.2855個(gè)百分點(diǎn)(見圖3)。受美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率回升的影響,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率同步上升,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率從上月的2.0578%上升到2.1374%,環(huán)比上升0.0796個(gè)百分點(diǎn),世界經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境出現(xiàn)暖意。
數(shù)據(jù)顯示,當(dāng)月美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率變化的彈性系數(shù)為0.3620,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率環(huán)比上升0.0768個(gè)百分點(diǎn),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率同步上升0.0278個(gè)百分點(diǎn),中美經(jīng)濟(jì)同步變化;同期,歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率變化的彈性系數(shù)為0.0846,歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率環(huán)比上升0.2855個(gè)百分點(diǎn),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率同步上升0.0242個(gè)百分點(diǎn),中歐經(jīng)濟(jì)同向變化;世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率變化的彈性系數(shù)為1.2023,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率環(huán)比上升0.0796個(gè)百分點(diǎn),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率同步上升0.0957個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。數(shù)據(jù)表明,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)受世界經(jīng)濟(jì)影響最為顯著,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)回升促進(jìn)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)上漲,其次是美國(guó)和歐元區(qū)。