拓守恒

摘要：針對(duì)陜南地區(qū)水資源供需關(guān)系，建立了自反饋機(jī)制的動(dòng)態(tài)水資源優(yōu)化配置模型。模型根據(jù)歷史水資源供需關(guān)系數(shù)據(jù)，采用神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型預(yù)測(cè)未來水資源供需數(shù)據(jù)，并根據(jù)其建立各年的水資源優(yōu)化配置模型，通過調(diào)節(jié)各年水資源配置參數(shù)，使其成為持續(xù)發(fā)展優(yōu)化模型。

關(guān)鍵詞：水資源；優(yōu)化配置；自反饋；可持續(xù)發(fā)展；陜南

中圖分類號(hào)：TV213.4 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：0439-8114（2013）05-1171-03

The Design of Optimization Model for Water Resources in Southern Shaanxi Based on Adaptive Sustainable Development

TUO Shou-Heng

（Culture Research Center of Hanjiang River， Shaanxi University of Technology， Hanzhong 723000， Shaanxi， China）

Abstract： Aiming at the relationship of supply and demand of water resources in southern shaanxi， a dynamic water resources optimization model with feedback mechanism was established. Based on the historical data， the neural network model was employed to predict the future data of supply and demand of water resources. And then the water resources optimization allocation model for each year in future was established. Finally， by adjusting the water resources configuration parameters of each year， an effective sustainable development optimization model was obtained.

Key words： water resources； configuration optimization； feedback mechanism； sustainable development； southern Shaanxi