Kevin Pelton

Every year when we arrive at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference①， reporters immediately open up the list of attendees and begin counting NBA teams. Using both hands and both feet wasnt sufficient to count all the way to this years total -- 29 of the 30 teams had at least one representative in attendance. The only exception？ The Los Angeles Lakers.

每年當我們來到麻省理工斯隆體育分析大會時，記者們都會關注參會者名單，然后數(shù)數(shù)參加大會的NBA球隊數(shù)量。今年，用上你的雙手雙腳都數(shù)不過來了，因為30支球隊里有29支都至少派了一個代表參加大會。唯一的那個例外？是洛杉磯湖人。

That figure has skyrocketed from 12 teams just four years ago， which shows the growth in both the Sloan conference （which had an attendance of nearly 3，000） and how NBA teams value statistical analysis.

這個數(shù)字與四年前的12支球隊相比已經(jīng)有了飛躍性的提高，這也顯示了斯隆大會的成長（大約有3000名參會者），以及NBA球隊對數(shù)據(jù)分析的重視。

Certainly， those involved have taken notice of the change. Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban， who took part in the "Revenge of the Nerds" panel that kicked off the two-day conference， recalled that when he was helping pioneer the field in the early 2000s， "You couldnt have a conversation with anyone." Then it was because few others understood the language Cuban was speaking. Now those conversations are limited primarily because teams are so secretive about what theyre doing， hoping to maintain their competitive advantage.

當然，那些參與其中的人也感受到了變化。小牛老板馬克·庫班，他才參加了為期2天的大會揭幕討論“書呆子逆襲”，回憶起自己在21世紀最初幾年幫助開拓這片領域時的情況時說，“你跟誰都說不上話?！币驗樵谀菚r，沒人能聽懂他說的是什么。而現(xiàn)在，這些交流都是受限的，因為球隊都會注重保護自己的隱私，希望能保持自己的競爭優(yōu)勢。

That leaves observers to read into what executives like Cuban， Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey （co-chair of the conference）， Indiana Pacers general manager Kevin Pritchard and San Antonio Spurs president R.C. Buford （who were part of the marquee Basketball Analytics panel） had to say all weekend.

那么諸如庫班、火箭總經(jīng)理達瑞爾·莫雷（大會聯(lián)合主席）、步行者總經(jīng)理凱文·普理查德和馬刺總裁R.C.布福德（他是高級籃球分析小組的成員）這樣的管理層人員在整個周末都說了些什么，解讀這些的任務就得留給觀察家們了。

Increasingly， however， we can see the influence of analytics in the game on the floor. Conference attendees each received a copy of ESPN The Magazines Analytics Issue， highlighted by a feature on how firstyear Portland Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts is using statistical analysis to inform his game plans. The Rockets shot selection -- rated the most efficient in the league by Hoopdata.coms expected effective field goal percentage --shows the front office putting its philosophy into play.

可以說，我們越來越多地在球場上看到了數(shù)據(jù)分析帶來的影響。大會的每個參與者都得到了一份ESPN雜志的數(shù)據(jù)特刊，其中的亮點正是波特蘭開拓者菜鳥主教練特里·斯托茨如何使用數(shù)據(jù)分析來制定他比賽計劃的?；鸺某鍪诌x擇則顯示了球隊管理層如何把自己的想法貫徹到比賽中，在Hoodata.com的預期有效命中率上，他們的排名在聯(lián)盟最前列。

Even the leagues best team， San Antonio， has incorporated lessons provided by advanced statistics. Buford said reigning NBA Coach of the Year Gregg Popovich reconsidered the Spurs defensive philosophy because the team that led the NBA in defensive rating six times between 1999 and 2006 slipped to 11th each of the past two seasons. So far this season， San Antonio is back up to third in the league.

即便是聯(lián)盟最好的球隊，馬刺也參與了由先進數(shù)據(jù)提供的課程中。布福德表示，NBA本年度的最佳教練格雷格·波波維奇重新考慮了馬刺的防守計劃，就是因為球隊從防守數(shù)據(jù)領先者（1999年到2006年），跌落到過去兩個賽季的聯(lián)盟第11位。本賽季到目前為止，馬刺在防守數(shù)據(jù)上已經(jīng)回到了聯(lián)盟第三。

Besides Cubans Mavericks， most of the NBAs other early adopters of statistics used them primarily to inform their decisions on player personnel. Now many teams are going beyond the information on tendencies that has long been part of scouting reports. Asked to predict the future of analytics， Morey answered that the game will be played differently after using a relatively similar set of strategies for decades. That kind of radical change would depend on the willingness of coaches to consider analysis that challenges the norm.

除了庫班的小牛，早期接受數(shù)據(jù)分析的NBA球隊主要把這用在了對球隊陣容的決策方面。而現(xiàn)在，很多球隊已經(jīng)超越了把數(shù)據(jù)作為球探報告一部分的觀念。當被問到對數(shù)據(jù)分析未來的預測時，莫雷表示，與過去幾十年幾乎一成不變的方法相比，現(xiàn)在球隊的打法會不一樣，本質(zhì)上的改變則要看球隊的教練們是否愿意使用數(shù)據(jù)分析。

When Basketball Analytics moderator Pablo Torre asked Buford and Pritchard whether theyd hire a coach opposed to analytics， they both emphasized openness to new ideas over the ability to spout off statistics. That certainly seems to describe former Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy， who represented the coaching perspective on the panel. As Van Gundy protested that hes really not a stats guy， he described a philosophy that matches up well with what statistical analysts have learned in the past decade. In part because of his personnel in Orlando， Van Gundy placed a premium on the 3-pointer and shots around the rim， the most efficient options available.

當籃球分析部主席帕布羅·托里詢問布福德和普理查德，他們是否愿意聘請一個反對數(shù)據(jù)分析的教練時，兩人均強調(diào)，對新理念持開放態(tài)度比實際有分析能力更重要。看起來這非常適合描述前魔術主教練斯坦·范甘迪，他代表了小組討論中教練一方的觀點。范甘迪聲稱自己并不是真的執(zhí)迷于數(shù)據(jù)，但他所描述的一種理念卻很符合過去十年數(shù)據(jù)分析得出的結論。而一部分的原因在于他在魔術時球隊的陣容，范甘迪把重點放在了三分和籃下得分，這都是最有效的得分區(qū)域。

Even when Van Gundy goes against the numbers -- as is the case with his rejection of the value of ensuring the 2-for-1 （two possessions to the opponents one） at the end of quarters -- hes considered the issue and weighed his options. （Van Gundy， like his brother， fears that giving players more latitude to take what would normally be bad shots creates problems with shot selection.）

即便當范甘迪站在數(shù)據(jù)的對立面時——比方說他不認同每節(jié)最后的2對1計劃（己方兩次進攻，對方一次）的價值——他也是在考慮這個問題，衡量自己的選擇。（和他兄弟一樣，范甘迪害怕給球員更多的自由，因為這可能會導致投籃選擇的問題出現(xiàn)。）

It helps that， unlike in baseball， much of the early research in basketball tended to confirm conventional wisdom. Buford explained that Popovich got on board when he saw that the numbers backed up some of his philosophies. The next wave of statistical advancement may do the same. For the third consecutive year， the weekends star was the optical-tracking data collected by Stats LLC② for SportVU. Three of the four research papers that focused on the NBA used SportVUs numbers to address a variety of different questions about the game.

和棒球不同，籃球方面早期的研究傾向于證實那些傳統(tǒng)的觀點。布福德說，當波波維奇發(fā)現(xiàn)數(shù)據(jù)能支持他的一些理論時，他也開始接受數(shù)據(jù)分析。下一輪數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計的進步浪潮也許還會有同樣的效果。連續(xù)三年，大會的明星都是提供了光學跟蹤數(shù)據(jù)的Stats LLC體育機構，四份研究報告中的三份把焦點集中在了使用SportVU數(shù)據(jù)的NBA球隊，以此強調(diào)比賽問題的多樣性。

SportVU， now in its third year in NBA arenas， is building a more robust data set all the time. Fully half of the leagues 30 teams have subscribed to SportVU and installed tracking cameras in their arenas， meaning every other game is captured with information on where players and the ball are on the court at all times.

SportVU落戶NBA已經(jīng)三年，他們在聯(lián)盟打下了良好的根基。聯(lián)盟30支球隊有一半都訂購的SportVU系統(tǒng)，在球館內(nèi)安裝了跟蹤攝像機，這意味著，每場比賽，球隊的跑位和球的運動都會隨時被記錄。

While a presentation from Grantlands Kirk Goldsberry and Eric Weiss on the "Dwight Effect" and interior defense was primarily focused on evaluating players， a team of students from MIT and their professor took on a strategic question for coaches -- whether or not their players should crash the glass or get back on defense. Increasingly， NBA teams are retreating to prevent fast-break baskets， one reason the percentage of rebounds grabbed by the offense leaguewide has declined since the late 1980s.

當來自Grantland的柯克·戈茲貝里和埃里克·維斯進行“德懷特效應”的演講，講述內(nèi)線防守的重點在于計算球員的價值時，來自麻省理工的一群學生和他們的教授則提出了一個戰(zhàn)略層面的話題——球員到底該沖擊籃板，還是直接退回去防守。NBA球隊如今開始越來越多地退回防守，以防對方快攻得分，一個原因就是，從上世紀80年代末開始，聯(lián)盟范圍內(nèi)的前場籃板率都在下滑。

When TrueHoop took up this issue during training camp， I used team performance to show that teams that increased their offensive rebounding relative to their defensive rebounding tended to get better on offense and worse on defense （and vice versa）， suggesting a trade-off. But that was a crude method that could not get at the role of coaching in the same way as the MIT study， which looked at how many players crashed or got back on any given missed shot.

當TrueHoop在訓練營期間提出這個問題時，我利用球隊的表現(xiàn)證明，相比后場籃板，當球隊在前場籃板增加時，他們的進攻會變得更好，防守則變得更差（反之亦然），這顯示這是一個相互抵消的作用。不過這只是很粗糙的統(tǒng)計，不可能像麻省理工的研究那樣影響到執(zhí)教，他們的研究會關注在一次投籃不中后有多少球員沖擊前場籃板，或者有多少球員退回防守。

Also intriguing： The Rockets crashed the glass the most of any with a high number of plays in the SportVU database. That could be a coincidence， or it might be a sign Houston has drawn a similar conclusion from the data.

同樣有意思的是：在SportVU的數(shù)據(jù)庫中，火箭不僅回合數(shù)最多，沖擊前場籃板的次數(shù)也是。這是巧合，但也許就是火箭得出了與數(shù)據(jù)相似的結論。

Of course， those insights wont reach all 30 teams at equal rates. The members of the Basketball Analytics panel were skeptical that there will ever be true analytical parity in the league， even if the NBA ultimately puts SportVU in eNBA arena. While teams might have access to the same data， they will do very different things with it.

當然，這些觀點對于30支球隊的影響并不相同?；@球分析小組的成員們懷疑，即便NBA最終把SportVU放進了電子賽場，聯(lián)盟未來是否真的會那么重視分析也是未知。即便球隊都能接觸到同樣的數(shù)據(jù)，但如何使用也是非常不同的。

That brings us back to the Lakers. Theyve used former head coach Rudy Tomjanovichs son， Trey， as a statistical consultant， so theyre not completely sitting out the revolution. The count of 29 other teams is a little misleading because at least one other team sent only business staffers. Still， rivals around the league arent necessarily missing the Lakers at Sloan.

這就把我們引向了湖人隊。他們聘請前主教練魯?shù)稀焚Z諾維奇的兒子特雷作為球隊的數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計顧問，所以他們也不是完全置身于變革之外。而關于這29支球隊的統(tǒng)計也有些許誤導，因為至少有一支球隊派出的僅僅是負責球隊商業(yè)運營的工作人員。不過，對手們不會在斯隆大會上忘記湖人。

"From the Celtics perspective， its not a bad thing the Lakers arent here，" said Boston assistant GM Mike Zarren.

“從凱爾特人的角度，湖人不在這里并不是壞事。”凱爾特人助理總經(jīng)理邁克·扎倫表示。

"If we can keep the Lakers out， thats fine with us，" added Buford.

“如果我們能一直把湖人排除在外，我們也沒問題?！辈几５卵a充道。

Too late. Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak told ESPNLA.com on Sunday that the team will send a representative to Boston next year， meaning by next year attendance could be mandatory throughout the NBA.

太晚了。湖人總經(jīng)理米奇·庫普切克周日向ESPNLA.com表示，球隊明年會派出一名代表參加大會。這意味著，明年NBA參加這次大會也許就是強制性的了。

①麻省理工斯隆體育分析大會的目的，就是為體育產(chǎn)業(yè)提供一個指引，以討論在整個產(chǎn)業(yè)中越來越重要的數(shù)據(jù)分析。這個會議始于2006年，由火箭隊總經(jīng)理莫雷和克拉夫特體育集團副總裁杰西卡·吉爾曼共同擔任主席。參會的不僅有北美各大職業(yè)體育球隊的管理層，也吸引了英超球隊。除了球隊外，各大商學院的學生也是大會最重要的參與者。斯隆體育分析大會每年2月或3月在波士頓地區(qū)進行。

②專門跟蹤記錄球場上球員和比賽進程的攝像數(shù)據(jù)系統(tǒng)，最初起源于以色列的軍事光學跟蹤系統(tǒng)。