Tom Mckleya

Fear can be an irrational thing. But of all the things that scare people， basketball players being afraid they wont be able to work in basketball after retiring is a rather small concern. The NBA and college ranks are filled with former players at every single level. Rasheed Wallace got hired in player development immediately after retirement. Rasheed Wallace. Fear about heart disease， saving enough for retirement， driving in the rain， remembering to record Cosmos -- these are all fears way more valid than basketball players being afraid they wont be able to work in basketball after retiring.

恐懼是一件缺乏理性的事情。但在所有讓人類感到恐懼的事中，球員擔(dān)心在退役后不能再?gòu)氖禄@球方面的工作，可謂是一個(gè)非常之小的擔(dān)憂。在NBA和大學(xué)各級(jí)聯(lián)賽中，處處可見(jiàn)前職業(yè)球員的身影。拉希德·華萊士在退役后迅速被雇傭成為了指導(dǎo)球員發(fā)展的助理教練。擔(dān)心心臟病，為退休后的生活攢夠錢，在雨中駕駛，不能忘記記錄宇宙變化，這些都比球員擔(dān)心自己退役后不能繼續(xù)籃球方面的工作來(lái)的更重要。

Thats what made this curious ESPN.com story apparently written by Chris Broussard so……well， curious.

可正是這種擔(dān)憂讓克里斯·布洛薩德在體育電視網(wǎng)寫(xiě)下了這個(gè)不尋常的故事，對(duì)，就是不尋常的。

There is a growing concern that the rise in the popularity of basketball analytics（such as player efficiency rating and true shooting percentage） has led to more statbased personnel hires rather than ex-players becoming general managers.

“隨著籃球分析學(xué)的流行度增加（諸如球員效率值、真實(shí)命中率），基于數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)的人，相比過(guò)去，比球員更容易成為球隊(duì)總經(jīng)理?！?/p>

One former star in the NBA with years of front office experience said that there is a divide within front offices between those who are perceived to be stat guys and those who are considered basketball lifers.

一個(gè)有著多年球隊(duì)管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)的前NBA球星說(shuō)，在球隊(duì)管理層中，管理者，數(shù)據(jù)人員，以及一生從事籃球行業(yè)的人，他們之間還是有著本質(zhì)區(qū)別的。

If there is a divide， thats a problem individual front offices absolutely need to figure out. Front offices need to be united. But the concern that quants① are taking jobs from explayers is really overblown. By my count， there are two NBA GMs who dont have lifelong ties to organized basketball： Daryl Morey in Houston and Sam Hinkie in Philadelphia. Other GMs all either played in college or the pros， worked in basketball in college or have worked only in basketball after college.

如果真的存在區(qū)別，那這就是球隊(duì)管理層絕對(duì)需要弄清的問(wèn)題。我們都知道，球隊(duì)管理層需要和諧團(tuán)結(jié)。但是，數(shù)據(jù)分析專家從退役球員那里奪走工作機(jī)會(huì)的擔(dān)憂卻是被過(guò)分鼓吹的。按照我的統(tǒng)計(jì)，只有兩支NBA球隊(duì)的總經(jīng)理之前沒(méi)有在籃球領(lǐng)域長(zhǎng)久工作的經(jīng)歷，一個(gè)是休斯敦火箭的達(dá)雷爾·莫雷，另一個(gè)則是費(fèi)城76人的薩姆·辛基。至于其他的球隊(duì)的總經(jīng)理們，要么在大學(xué)，要么在其他聯(lián)賽中打過(guò)球，要么就是在大學(xué)中從事籃球工作或者在大學(xué)畢業(yè)后在籃球圈里工作。

So our thesis here -- that quants are taking all the GM jobs from ex-players -- is suspect. The requisite anonymous quotes are far worse.

因此，我們的結(jié)論如下：數(shù)據(jù)人員從前球員那里搶走籃球經(jīng)理工作是極其可疑的，而文中不可或缺的匿名消息源的舉證，看起來(lái)竟是如此蒼白無(wú)力。

"Basketball guys who participated in the game through years of rigorous training and practice， decades of observation work through film and field participation work feel underutilized and under-appreciated and are quite insulted because their PhDs in basketball have been downgraded，" the former executive， who chose to remain anonymous， told ESPN NBA Insider Chris Broussard.

“那些常年經(jīng)歷嚴(yán)酷訓(xùn)練和練習(xí)，并有數(shù)十年比賽錄像研究和臨場(chǎng)經(jīng)驗(yàn)積累的籃球從業(yè)人士覺(jué)得自己沒(méi)有完全發(fā)揮能力，沒(méi)有得到足夠的賞識(shí)，而且還被極大地侮辱了，因?yàn)樗麄兊幕@球博士學(xué)位被低估了?！边@位仍然保持匿名的前球隊(duì)經(jīng)理如是告訴ESPN NBA Insider欄目的克里斯·布洛薩德。

Whoa. You know， for PhDs in basketball to be downgraded， they need to have first actually existed. So let me help with that.

你要知道，對(duì)于籃球博士學(xué)位一直被低估這件事，首先，這個(gè)學(xué)位必須真實(shí)存在，我們才能繼續(xù)愉快地討論！那么，讓我來(lái)深入探究下。

"Generally speaking， neither the [newer generation of] owners nor the analytic guys have basketball in their background，" the longtime executive told Broussard. "This fact makes it easy for both parties to dismiss the importance of having experience in and knowledge of the game."

“通常來(lái)說(shuō)，新一代的球隊(duì)老板和善于數(shù)據(jù)分析的新人都沒(méi)有籃球背景，”這個(gè)從業(yè)多年的球隊(duì)經(jīng)理告訴布洛薩德，“這使得兩者都看低了擁有比賽經(jīng)驗(yàn)和知識(shí)的重要性?！?/p>

No， the newer owners typically dont have first-hand basketball experience. Except， well， Michael Jordan. But the issue seems to be what kind of basketball background counts according to this worried ex-player. Because unless you are using a strict， NBA-only， playersonly definition of basketball background， the anonymous exec is absolutely wrong.

是的，球隊(duì)的新老板們并沒(méi)有一手的籃球經(jīng)驗(yàn)。當(dāng)然，山貓的邁克爾·喬丹例外。但是，對(duì)于拋出那個(gè)觀點(diǎn)并憂心忡忡的前球員而言，問(wèn)題的關(guān)鍵在于怎樣的籃球背景才真正算數(shù)。因?yàn)?，除非你假設(shè)一個(gè)非常嚴(yán)厲苛刻的條件，比如必須用“NBA，球員”這個(gè)條件來(lái)定義籃球背景，不然，這位匿名的球隊(duì)經(jīng)理的說(shuō)法是絕對(duì)錯(cuò)誤的。

Take a look at the GMs in question and other recent hires.

讓我們帶著疑問(wèn)來(lái)審視一下球隊(duì)的總經(jīng)理和近來(lái)發(fā)生的一些雇傭大事件吧。

Rob Hennigan， the young GM of the Magic， is considered a stats GM. He is also Division III Emerson Colleges all-time leading scorer. Sam Presti， the vanguard of the New Wave， played at Emerson too. His first job out of college？ He interned for the Spurs and convinced his boss to draft Tony Parker. His entire professional life has been in basketball.

羅伯·亨尼根，魔術(shù)年輕的總經(jīng)理，被認(rèn)為是一個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)至上的球隊(duì)總經(jīng)理，但同時(shí)他也是愛(ài)默生大學(xué)在三級(jí)聯(lián)盟中的主要得分手。薩姆·普萊斯利，他是前新波浪隊(duì)的前鋒同時(shí)也曾在愛(ài)默生大學(xué)打球。他大學(xué)畢業(yè)之后的第一份工作是在馬刺實(shí)習(xí)，并且說(shuō)服了老板選擇了托尼·帕克，他的整個(gè)職業(yè)生涯一直在籃球領(lǐng)域。

The Suns Ryan McDonough？ His entire professional career was spent working for the Boston Celtics （a basketball team） before getting hired by Phoenix. The Kings Pete DAlessandro？ In college， he worked as a video coordinator for a guy named Lou Carnesecca. After law school and a spell in politics， he worked as an agent and then under Chris Mullin （noted Basketball PhD） with the Warriors.

至于太陽(yáng)隊(duì)的萊恩·麥克多諾？在被太陽(yáng)雇傭前，他的整個(gè)職業(yè)生涯都是在波士頓凱爾特人度過(guò)的。你說(shuō)國(guó)王的皮特·德亞歷桑德羅？哦，他在大學(xué)為一個(gè)叫盧·卡爾內(nèi)塞卡的人作視頻分析員。從法律學(xué)校畢業(yè)并在政治領(lǐng)域度過(guò)了一段時(shí)間后，他還做過(guò)球探，然后跟著克里斯·穆林與勇士隊(duì)合作。

Masai Ujiri， the vaunted boss of the Raptors？ He played two years in college and six years in Europe before getting into scouting and， eventually， advanced metrics. The Blazers Neil Olshey worked in player representation and draft preparation before joining the Clippers in a player development role. （Also， Olsheys background isnt in advanced math： its in soap opera acting.） Bob Myers， who leads a front office invested in quant analysis， played four years at UCLA and was an agent before switching sides. Denvers Tim Connolly has worked in the NBA since 1996. Or， longer than Andre Miller.

馬賽·烏杰里，猛龍驕傲的老板？他在大學(xué)打了兩年籃球，然后又在歐洲打了六年才踏進(jìn)了球探領(lǐng)域，最后，成為了該領(lǐng)域杰出的風(fēng)向標(biāo)。開(kāi)拓者的總經(jīng)理尼爾·奧爾謝在去快船做球員發(fā)展工作前，做過(guò)球員選秀和起草準(zhǔn)備的工作。（而且，他的背景不是高等數(shù)學(xué)，而是電視劇表演）鮑勃·邁爾斯所領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的辦公室，致力于數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)分析領(lǐng)域，他在UCLA打過(guò)四年球并且在換工作之前做過(guò)球探。丹佛的蒂姆·康納利從1996年起就在NBA工作，或許，比老米勒的時(shí)間還長(zhǎng)。

And the leagues very latest GM hire， Phil Jackson， not only has a Basketball PhD， hes handed out a few， too.

而聯(lián)盟最新雇傭的總經(jīng)理，菲爾·杰克遜，他不僅有籃球博士學(xué)位，同時(shí)他還培養(yǎng)出來(lái)了一批人。

Lets look at that quote again.

讓我們?cè)賮?lái)看下這段引用自匿名消息源的論據(jù)。

"Generally speaking， neither the [newer generation of] owners nor the analytic guys have basketball in their background，" the longtime executive told Broussard. "This fact makes it easy for both parties to dismiss the importance of having experience in and knowledge of the game."

“通常來(lái)說(shuō)，新一代的球隊(duì)老板和善于數(shù)據(jù)分析的新人都沒(méi)有籃球背景，”這個(gè)從業(yè)多年的球隊(duì)經(jīng)理告訴布洛薩德，“這個(gè)現(xiàn)象使得這兩者都低估了擁有比賽經(jīng)驗(yàn)和籃球知識(shí)的重要性?！?/p>

Wrong. The so-called analytic guys just dont have the qualifications this anonymous ex-player feels are necessary for a Basketball PhD. Maybe Hennigan has a Masters in Basketball Administration， but no PhD in Basketball. That quoted ex-player is just mad that NBA playing experience is no longer the fastest track to one of those coveted NBA general manager jobs.

大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)！這些所謂的善于數(shù)據(jù)分析的人，他們僅僅是沒(méi)有達(dá)到匿名消息源所認(rèn)同的籃球博士資格。也許亨尼根有一個(gè)籃球碩士學(xué)位，而不是博士。這位前球員僅僅是對(duì)擁有NBA籃球經(jīng)歷的人，在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)總經(jīng)理職位時(shí)不再具有優(yōu)勢(shì)而感到生氣。

Should it be？ Well find that out as the NBA continues to diversify its front office hiring （which was once almost 100 percent ex-NBA players）. What the brilliant Amin Elhassan says in the video that accompanies Broussards piece is spot on： the reality is that quants arent taking over， front offices are just becoming more well-rounded. McDonough is a perfect example of the new style of GM： a tape-obsessed "basketball lifer" who knows the cap like the back of his hand and is totally comfortable using advanced metrics. Hybrids --double-majors in Basketball and Math， not fullon quants -- are the real future of the NBA GM position.

應(yīng)該這樣么？我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，以前的管理層幾乎都是由前NBA球員在擔(dān)任，而現(xiàn)在的聯(lián)盟持續(xù)推進(jìn)管理層多樣化。飽負(fù)才氣的阿明·艾爾哈桑就在視頻中說(shuō)關(guān)于布洛薩德的調(diào)查結(jié)果：數(shù)據(jù)分析專家并沒(méi)有占據(jù)總經(jīng)理職位，事實(shí)上，球隊(duì)管理層只是變得更加多才多藝了。麥克多諾是一個(gè)用來(lái)佐證新型球隊(duì)總經(jīng)理的極佳例子：他是一個(gè)對(duì)籃球錄像了如指掌的職業(yè)籃球錄像分析師，并且對(duì)使用先進(jìn)數(shù)據(jù)分析工具感到毫無(wú)壓力。擁有籃球和數(shù)學(xué)雙重專業(yè)，而不是單純的數(shù)據(jù)分析工兵，這種混合型人才將會(huì)是NBA總經(jīng)理的未來(lái)走向。

If that leaves some ex-players behind， so be it. If teams suffer for it， theyll start hiring ex- players exclusively again. But making this an open partisan mess by giving inflammatory quotes to a reporter sure isnt going to help bridge the gap. Itd be much better for these ex-players feeling left behind to make themselves indispensable to NBA owners and decision-makers. Complaining about the wind wont stop it.

如果這種人才把一些退役球員甩在身后，那就順其自然吧！如果球隊(duì)因?yàn)楣蛡驍?shù)據(jù)專家而遭了殃，那么他們又會(huì)重新開(kāi)始雇傭球員。但是通過(guò)將煽動(dòng)性的言論透露給記者，制造一種公開(kāi)的黨派之爭(zhēng)，是絕不會(huì)有助于在兩者中搭建溝通橋梁的。對(duì)于這些感到遭到遺棄的前球員來(lái)說(shuō)，這樣的抱怨會(huì)使他們?cè)贜BA老板和決策者中變得不可或缺，但是，抱怨這種變革之風(fēng)并不會(huì)阻止時(shí)代的洪流！