徐步

從今年東亞合作系列外長會看南海問題新動向

徐步

針對菲律賓南海仲裁案，美國、日本等域外國家拼命鼓噪，肆意曲解《聯(lián)合國海洋法公約》，故意慫恿仲裁庭濫用權力，甚至對仲裁庭成員的組成進行政治操弄。今年東亞合作系列外長會的召開正值東亞形勢陰云籠罩、南海問題波詭云譎、菲律賓南海仲裁案裁決結果剛剛出臺之時，一些域內外勢力企圖將矛頭指向中國。越來越多的域內國家對本地區(qū)形勢被南海問題綁架感到不安，對域外國家一味炒作菲律賓南海仲裁案裁決表示不滿。

東亞合作系列外長會；南海仲裁案；中國—東盟關系；老撾萬象

2016年7月24日至26日，東亞合作系列外長會年度會議在老撾首都萬象舉行。①所謂東亞系列合作外長會議，包括東盟國家外長會議、東盟與中國（10+1）外長會議、東盟與中日韓（10+3）外長會議、東亞峰會（EAS）外長會議和東盟地區(qū)論壇（ARF）外長會議。筆者作為中國外交部長王毅所率代表團成員，出席了在老撾首都萬象舉行的本屆年度會議。這次會議的召開正值東亞形勢陰云籠罩、南海問題波詭云譎、菲律賓南海仲裁案裁決結果剛剛出臺之時，一些域內外勢力企圖將矛頭指向中國。在這一背景下，這次會議的走勢如何、會議是否會完全被南海問題綁架、會議相關文件將如何措辭，有關國家高度重視，國際輿論十分關注。結果顯示，越來越多的域內國家對本地區(qū)務實合作被南海問題綁架感到不安，對域外國家一味炒作菲律賓南海仲裁案裁決表示不滿，要穩(wěn)定、求合作的愿望成為域內國家的普遍訴求。

一、仲裁結果使人們普遍感到擔憂

2016年7月12日，應菲律賓前總統(tǒng)阿基諾三世政府單方面請求成立的所謂南海仲裁案臨時仲裁庭公布了裁決結果。不出意料，這一結果完全倒向菲方一邊。

中國政府第一時間發(fā)表關于在南海的領土主權和海洋權益的聲明，中國外交部發(fā)表針對南海仲裁案仲裁庭所做裁決的聲明，王毅外長就所謂南海仲裁庭裁決發(fā)表談話。7月13日，中方發(fā)表《中國堅持通過談判解決中國與菲律賓在南海的有關爭議》白皮書。中方立場明確，仲裁庭所謂裁決是非法的、無效的，沒有拘束力，中國不接受、不承認。

針對南海仲裁案，美國、日本等域外國家拼命鼓噪，肆意曲解《聯(lián)合國海洋法公約》（以下簡稱《公約》），故意慫恿仲裁庭濫用權力，甚至對仲裁庭成員的組成進行政治操弄。事實上，南海仲裁案的實質是南海部分島礁領土主權問題，有關事項構成中菲海洋劃界不可分割的組成部分。領土主權問題不屬于《公約》的調整范圍。2006年中國根據(jù)《公約》第298條作出排除性聲明，將涉及海洋劃界等問題排除在《公約》爭端解決程序之外。菲方聲稱其不尋求判定任何領土歸屬或劃定任何海洋邊界，然而在仲裁進程特別是庭審中，卻要求否定中國在南海的領土主權和海洋權益。南海仲裁案開了惡劣先例，改變了以往有關當事方通過直接對話協(xié)商和平解決爭端的有效方式，否定了中國和菲律賓雙邊協(xié)議解決分歧的共識以及在《南海各方行為宣言》（以下簡稱《宣言》）中的莊嚴承諾。

當今世界的新聞媒體主要掌控在美國等西方國家手中，它們在議題設計、輿論引導、技術設備以及傳播能力等諸方面占據(jù)明顯優(yōu)勢。發(fā)展中國家面臨兩難境地：要么與西方國家為伍，聽從它們的指使，充當它們的幫手；要么被它們視為異類，遭到它們妖魔化，面臨它們的打壓。在國際話語權方面，新興大國與西方發(fā)達國家存在極大差距。仲裁裁決一出來，西方媒體就緊緊圍繞所謂“法制”、“規(guī)則”、“秩序”等話題大做文章，大肆抹黑中國，企圖把違反法制秩序的臟水潑向中國。盡管如此，菲律賓仲裁案的漏洞太多，污點太明顯，因此包括一些西方學者在內的輿論仍然對裁決結果提出了種種質疑。綜合而言，這些觀點主要有：

一是臨時仲裁庭的裁決明顯帶有政治目的。澳大利亞學者說，裁決將中國逼入角落，但大國不會接受對自己有害的裁決。①KaiHe and Huiyun Feng,Griffith University,"South China Sea Ruling Won't Improve Regional Security",National Intereston line,August6,2016.在新加坡舉行的有關研討會上，一些資深法學家從純法學角度點評這次裁決相當“大膽”，仲裁員們抱著“發(fā)展法律”的“使命”當裁判。有法學者提醒指出，“在法律上，‘大膽’、‘創(chuàng)造力’可不是什么褒義詞，因為法官的責任是根據(jù)現(xiàn)有規(guī)則做裁判，不是發(fā)展新的規(guī)則?！豆s》是由主權國家締結的條約，標準豈是仲裁庭就能決定的？”②韓永紅：《仲裁案的大膽裁決與影響》，《聯(lián)合早報》2016年7月15日。澳大利亞格里菲斯大學國際關系學院的專家指出，南海仲裁裁決打破了南海爭議的模糊平衡，不僅無法提升區(qū)域安全，相反對區(qū)域安全具有負面影響。對菲律賓來說，仲裁無法執(zhí)行，裁決無法自動轉化為實質性領土和海洋權益收益。裁決開啟了南海爭議新階段，但不會改變基于實力的國際政治這一基本原則。③KaiHe and Huiyun Feng,Griffith University,"South China Sea Ruling Won't Improve Regional Security",National Intereston line,August6,2016.

二是仲裁庭裁決不專業(yè)。美國及歐洲一些國際法專家指出，受菲律賓仲裁案結果沖擊的將遠不止中國與菲律賓。仲裁庭對“島”采取了很嚴格的標準，這開啟了新的麻煩。仲裁庭將南沙最大島嶼即有著50萬平方米的太平島判定為“礁”，稱其不具有海洋權利，這違背了國際法原則。彼德·柯伊（指出，菲律賓南海仲裁案裁決將對全球的專屬經(jīng)濟區(qū)產(chǎn)生連鎖反應，“美國和其他沿岸國家可能因此失去數(shù)百萬平方海里的海洋，而這些海洋直到現(xiàn)在還是它們的專屬經(jīng)濟區(qū)”。①PeterCoy,"Is Itan Island ora Rock?Ruling Could CostU.S.aHuge Swath of Ocean"July 29,2016.美國麻省理工大學學者翻出例子稱，如果按照這次仲裁庭做出的司法先例與“高嚴標準”，世界上許多國家所擁有的“島”，都該降格為“礁”，包括日本的沖之鳥礁、美國聲稱在北太平洋擁有200海里專屬經(jīng)濟區(qū)的金曼礁（Kingman Reef），它們的定位都與這次裁決產(chǎn)生矛盾。②韓永紅：《仲裁案的大膽裁決與影響》，《聯(lián)合早報》2016年7月15日。

三是裁決嚴重干擾通過談判處理相關分歧的努力。東南亞國家一些學者認為，菲律賓新政府在裁決前屢次釋放信息，表示愿與中國通過雙邊協(xié)商解決南海問題。如今在國內亢奮的情緒下，菲律賓要犧牲本國已獲得的利益變得更加困難。至于訴求被否決的中國，在強大的國內民族主義壓力下，要示弱也更為不可能。這次裁決讓妥協(xié)更加困難。③韓永紅：《仲裁案的大膽裁決與影響》，《聯(lián)合早報》2016年7月15日。新加坡尤索夫伊沙克研究所（Yusof Ishak Institute）研究員鄧秀岷表示，東盟沒有理由深陷仲裁案之中，“仲裁案并不是由東盟發(fā)起的，也不需要它來解決”。④"Beijing'sVoice Louder than the ASEAN on SCS",the Straits Times,July 29,2016.澳大利亞學者認為，各聲索國原本對《公約》均作出有利于自己的解讀，相互挑戰(zhàn)對方聲索，法理模糊為各方保持克制、談判妥協(xié)提供了空間和靈活性。裁決結束了這種模糊性，但又無法解決爭議。中國政府在國內面臨壓力，特別是國內民族主義情緒上升情況下，不得不采取軍事演習等措施。裁決可能使菲律賓和其他受益國過度自信并導致其采取不明智舉動。⑤KaiHe and Huiyun Feng,Griffith University,"South China Sea Ruling Won't Improve Regional Security",National Intereston line,August6,2016.

四是裁決結果將加大中美兩個大國的競爭。澳大利亞學者在一篇題為“中國輸在法庭，贏在海洋”的文章中指出，南海問題并不僅僅是中國和菲律賓以及其他南海主權聲索國之間對于重疊海域的領土主權和海洋資源的爭議，它也是中美兩個超級大國如何處理雙方權力格局變化的試金石。中美作為競爭雙方，在該海域存在發(fā)生對抗和戰(zhàn)略誤判的可能性。一旦出現(xiàn)這種事態(tài)，將導致南海這條世界上最繁忙的貿(mào)易路線出現(xiàn)無法預知和控制的沖突。澳大利亞至今并不愿意過度靠近美國，不愿意參加由美國主導的在南海中國控制島礁附近的巡航行動。⑥Jennifer Hewett,"China Loses in Court,Winsat Sea澳大利亞格里菲斯大學國際關系學院的專家認為，各方特別是中美應當冷靜下來，降低預期，避免沖突，擱置爭議，尋求合作。⑦KaiHe and Huiyun Feng,Griffith University,"South China Sea Ruling Won't Improve Regional Security",National Intereston line,August6,2016.

五是裁決可能損害南海地區(qū)的貿(mào)易安全與自由。美國媒體報道，裁決引起了對貿(mào)易安全的擔憂，仲裁法庭否認中國對南海大部分地區(qū)擁有主權的判決，給地區(qū)航運和貿(mào)易帶來巨大不確定性。航運公司一直以來都擔心南海地區(qū)爭議升級將影響全球商業(yè)。7月12日的判決“將鼓勵南海周邊小國更加強硬地捍衛(wèi)其在該海域的權利，這將增加他們與中國對抗的風險，從而使該地區(qū)的自由航行受到干擾”。①Sara Schonhardt,"Sea Ruling RaisesWorriesover Trade",美國前駐東盟貿(mào)易代表艾里克·辛帕稱，如果這些國家的政府以仲裁結果為法律基礎，擴大在中國宣稱擁有主權的海域進行捕魚和油氣勘探行動，將導致潛在沖突風險的上升。他強調，“如果政府支持的商業(yè)活動沒有與中國進行很好的溝通，勢必將導致沖突的潛在風險升溫”。②Sara Schonhardt,"Sea Ruling RaisesWorriesover Trade",

六是菲律賓實質之“失”大于其表面之“獲”。澳大利亞學者潘成鑫）在“南海仲裁案：誰真正獲勝”文章中指出，南海仲裁案結果出乎很多預測菲律賓會獲勝的專家的預料，“但仲裁案會使南海爭端進入一個新的時期嗎？會有利于菲律賓等小的聲索國嗎？我認為并非如此?！迸顺肾沃赋?，應該認識到，爭端從來都不僅僅是法律問題或者技術問題，仲裁一邊倒的性質使其付諸實施的可能性大大降低。不管是不是島嶼，南海中的那些地貌在功能上早已經(jīng)是國家主權的象征，這不是一個一邊倒的裁決能夠解決的。哈佛大學格雷厄姆·艾利森教授也指出，“聯(lián)合國安理會五常沒有一個國家曾經(jīng)接受過任何對其主權和安全利益不利的國際法庭的裁決”。如果美國、菲律賓、越南和其他國家一道對中國發(fā)難，中國可能會通過在南海建設軍事設施來作出實際回應。如果法律上的勝利使一些政客認為現(xiàn)在是時候來限制中國了，那么中國則可能變?yōu)楦蟮内A家。③http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/the?south?china?sea?ruling?who?really?won,visited on August20,2016.

七是裁決結果不會對中國的政策產(chǎn)生實際影響。俄羅斯科學院遠東研究所副所長安德烈·奧斯特洛夫斯基在俄《真理報》刊文表示，海牙法院的判決對中國來說就像被蚊子叮了一下。原則上來說，海牙法院的判決對中國造成不了什么影響，它僅僅只是記錄了當下歐美各國在政治領域對正在崛起的中國的擔憂與不滿，也就是所謂的“插楔子”。這項決議沒有實際執(zhí)行的意義。④http://m.dw new s.com/global/new s/2016?07?12/59753187.htm l,visited on August20,2016.印尼外長蕾特諾）指出，“每一個人都知道7月12日的裁決結果解決不了聲索國之間有關領土劃界問題的突出爭議。關于劃界問題，還得由聲索國自己去談。在東盟與中國外長會議上，菲律賓和中國都表示它們準備開始談判。我們對此高度贊賞，我們應當讓它們以它們認為合適的方式去談判”。⑤Retno LPMarsudi,"We allhavemadean effort tomove things forward in Vientiane",The Jakarta Post,August1,2016.蕾特諾表示，印尼最關心的問題是穩(wěn)定（Stability），“歷史和經(jīng)驗一再表明，一旦一個地區(qū)常常出現(xiàn)大國展示力量的現(xiàn)象，這個地區(qū)的形勢就會變得非常復雜。我們要做的事就是確保地區(qū)的和平穩(wěn)定”。⑥Retno LPMarsudi,"We allhavemadean effort tomove things forward in Vientiane",The Jakarta Post,August1,2016.亞洲新聞臺7月14日刊文稱，東盟曾就南海問題表達過擔憂，但都避免提及中國。菲律賓前駐聯(lián)合國大使勞羅·巴加指出，東盟在仲裁裁決出來后沒能集體發(fā)聲，這就表明“由于南海問題可能導致東盟分裂，我們再也不要指望東盟會在將來通過針對中國的聲明”。①"ASEAN to Keep Mum on South China SeaRuling:Diplomats",channelnew sasia,July 14,2016.

二、東盟國家重視與中國的務實合作

2016年是中國與東盟建立對話關系25周年。雙方于1991年開啟對話進程，2003年建立戰(zhàn)略伙伴關系。2016年7月24日下午，王毅外長抵達萬象后，立即展開了多場密集的雙邊會談。7月25日上午，中國—東盟外長會在萬象舉行了一個半小時，氣氛融洽友好，外長們約80%的時間都在聚焦發(fā)展與合作。對東盟的每一個對話伙伴國來說，它們獨自與東盟的會議（10+1）是最具實質內容的。比如東盟與中國的會議，對中國最為重要。在這個會議上，東盟與中方會深入討論雙方各個領域的務實合作，并發(fā)表有關聲明或合作文件。有關國家外長紛紛表示，中國是東盟所有十個對話伙伴中關系最密切、合作最務實、成果最豐碩的伙伴。

25年來，中國與東盟各層級對話機制日臻成熟，中國與東盟各國領導人互訪頻繁。在東盟對話伙伴中，中國第一個加入《東南亞友好合作條約》，第一個與東盟建立戰(zhàn)略伙伴關系，第一個明確支持《東南亞無核武器區(qū)條約》，第一個確定同東盟建立自貿(mào)區(qū)。雙方已建立起一套完整的對話合作體系，包括領導人、部長、高官等各個層次，形成了外交、經(jīng)濟、交通、海關署長、總檢察長、青年事務、衛(wèi)生、電信、新聞、質檢、打擊跨國犯罪和執(zhí)法安全合作等部長級會議機制。在高官及工作層面，雙方在20多個領域建立了合作對話機制。2015年11月，雙方達成第三份《落實中國—東盟面向和平與繁榮的戰(zhàn)略伙伴關系聯(lián)合宣言的行動計劃（2016—2020）》，為中國—東盟關系未來五年發(fā)展規(guī)劃了藍圖。多層級交往及務實合作為雙方增進互信提供了重要平臺，為雙方關系健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展奠定了堅實的政治基礎。

經(jīng)貿(mào)合作是雙方關系的重要支柱。2015年，中國與東盟貿(mào)易額達4721億美元，比1991年的79.6億美元增加近60倍。中國連續(xù)7年是東盟的第一大貿(mào)易伙伴，東盟連續(xù)5年是中國第三大貿(mào)易伙伴。雙方累計投資額達1564億美元，較1991的5億美元增加300多倍。中國與東盟在農(nóng)業(yè)、信息通信技術、人力資源開發(fā)、投資、湄公河流域開發(fā)、交通、能源、文化、旅游、公共衛(wèi)生和環(huán)境等11個重點領域展開了務實合作。雙方貿(mào)易、投資和產(chǎn)業(yè)合作日益密切，已形成“你中有我、我中有你”的相互依存的發(fā)展格局。雙方于2010年建成世界上最大的發(fā)展中國家自貿(mào)區(qū)，2015年就升級自貿(mào)區(qū)達成協(xié)議，并于2016年7月1日生效。雙方在人文領域的合作不斷深入，雙向人員往來從2003年的387萬人次增加到2015年的2300萬人次，中國已成為東盟第一大境外游客來源地。

中國積極參與東盟主導的區(qū)域合作機制。雙方在中國和東盟（10+1）、東盟地區(qū)論壇、東盟防長擴大會、東盟和中日韓（10+3）等框架下開展了形式多樣的合作交流活動。在10+1框架下，中國過去10年里提出了100多項合作倡議。在10+3框架下，中國積極參與和推進金融安全、貿(mào)易投資、農(nóng)業(yè)減貧等重點領域合作，推進建設東亞經(jīng)濟共同體。中方積極維護東亞峰會作為“領導人引領的戰(zhàn)略論壇”性質，推動峰會六大領域務實合作，為峰會發(fā)展作出了應有貢獻。中國還積極參與東盟地區(qū)論壇框架下的對話工作，迄今已舉辦了40多個合作項目，每年主辦的合作項目都占項目總數(shù)的三分之一，在論壇27個成員中居首位。

應對非傳統(tǒng)安全威脅已經(jīng)成為中國與東盟安全合作的重要內容。雙方軍事防務交流合作不斷拓展。2011年，中國同東盟舉行了首次防長交流。2015年，雙方首次在華舉行中國—東盟防長非正式會晤和中國—東盟執(zhí)法安全合作部長級對話。自1997年起，中國同東盟每兩年舉行一次打擊跨國犯罪部長級會議，雙方還簽署了《關于非傳統(tǒng)安全領域合作諒解備忘錄》。在此機制下，雙方在打擊販毒、非法移民、海盜、恐怖主義、武器走私、洗錢、國際經(jīng)濟、網(wǎng)絡犯罪等跨國犯罪方面密切合作。2015年11月，在出席第18屆中國—東盟領導人會議期間，李克強總理建議共同提升安全合作水平，爭取早日實現(xiàn)防長非正式會晤機制化和執(zhí)法安全合作部長級對話機制化，建立中國—東盟防務直通電話，設立中國—東盟執(zhí)法學院，并建議在未來5年內為東盟國家執(zhí)法部門提供2000人次培訓。

中國—東盟關系正處在承前啟后的關鍵節(jié)點。在7月25日舉行的中國與東盟國家外長會議上，東盟各國外長均強調中國與東盟關系的重要性，希望這一關系能得到進一步加強。新加坡外長維文說，東盟和中國對維護地區(qū)和平與穩(wěn)定的目標一致，大家應當向前看。文萊第二外長林玉成說，中國為維護地區(qū)和平與穩(wěn)定作出了重大貢獻，中國的“一帶一路”倡議和帶頭成立的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（AIIB）將為本地區(qū)發(fā)展帶來更大的機遇。泰國外長敦說，中國是東盟親密的鄰居，雙方在貿(mào)易、投資、旅游以及互聯(lián)互通等方面仍有很大合作潛力。緬甸國務資政昂山素季說，中國是緬甸的好朋友，也是東盟的好朋友，盡管相互間會有分歧，但對解決好分歧充滿信心。老撾外長沙倫賽說，中國的發(fā)展給東盟國家?guī)砹藱C遇，雙方有共同利益，老方感謝中國對老撾經(jīng)濟發(fā)展提供的幫助。菲律賓外長亞賽說，25年來的東盟與中國關系成果豐碩，中國已成為東盟最大貿(mào)易伙伴，亞洲基礎設施投資銀行將助推東盟國家的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。越南外長范平明說，中國是東盟所有對話伙伴中關系最豐富、發(fā)展最快的伙伴，越南重視與中國的特殊關系。印尼外長蕾特諾說，中國和東盟是朋友，雙方經(jīng)貿(mào)關系日益密切，和平、穩(wěn)定和安全對雙方都十分重要。馬來西亞外交部常秘奧斯曼說，中國與東盟在各領域往來頻繁，明年（2017）將是中國與東盟的旅游合作年，希望以此帶動雙方更多的人員交流。柬埔寨外交國務部長宋拉查薇說，中國是東盟最密切的合作伙伴，各個領域的合作成果均十分顯著。

對于下一階段的中國—東盟關系，王毅外長在萬象提出了六項工作重點，得到東盟各國的積極響應。這六項分別是：一是辦好中國—東盟建立對話關系25周年紀念峰會，推動會議取得成功；二是繼續(xù)推進務實合作，使去年領導人會議期間簽署的中國—東盟自貿(mào)區(qū)升級議定書盡快落地，進一步擴大經(jīng)貿(mào)往來，促進產(chǎn)業(yè)轉型升級；三是打造社會人文合作新支柱。雙方已在政治安全和經(jīng)貿(mào)合作兩個領域取得巨大進展。下一步將以教育和旅游為優(yōu)先方向，打造雙方人文合作的新支柱。今年（2016）是中國—東盟教育交流年，明年（2017）將舉辦“中國—東盟旅游合作年”；四是深化政治安全合作，中方重申愿與東盟盡早商簽“中國—東盟國家睦鄰友好合作條約”，支持東盟建立東南亞無核武器區(qū)的努力，愿與東盟盡早簽署有關議定書；五是培育次區(qū)域合作新平臺，中方愿通過瀾滄江—湄公河合作機制，幫助東盟縮小內部發(fā)展差距，為東盟共同體建設和一體化進程作出新貢獻；六是共同維護地區(qū)和平穩(wěn)定。雙方都同意著眼大局，聚焦合作，妥處分歧，把地區(qū)和平穩(wěn)定的鑰匙掌握在自己手中，共同探索符合地區(qū)實際的發(fā)展之道。①http://asean.chinamission.org.cn/chn/ztbd/2016zhb/t1385414.htm,visited on August20,2016.

盡管有一些國家提出南海形勢和相關問題，但外長們本著相互尊重和信任的精神，從積極的角度就此交換了意見。大家一致認為，圍繞南沙部分島礁存在的爭端不是中國和東盟之間的問題，不能以此定義中國—東盟關系，同時更不能讓這些具體問題影響中國—東盟整體關系的發(fā)展。東盟作為一個整體，對菲律賓前政府單方面提出的仲裁案不持立場，對裁決結果不予評論，也不選邊站隊，認為這是中菲雙邊之間的問題，支持中菲通過雙邊對話協(xié)商尋求解決方案。王毅外長在老撾萬象強調，臨時仲裁庭作出的裁決漏洞百出，嚴重缺乏合法性?，F(xiàn)在這一頁已經(jīng)翻過去了，由此引發(fā)的無謂炒作應該退燒降溫，南海問題需要撥亂反正。菲外長亞賽也表示，菲律賓在與中國的南海仲裁案中沒有尋求東盟或國際社會的支持，也不想因此使東盟陷入分裂或激怒中國。仲裁案裁決不是東盟要處理的事情，而是菲律賓和中國之間的事情。亞賽還指出，無論你認為這是中國勝利還是菲律賓勝利，重要的是我們正在尋求和平方式解決爭議。中菲之間的爭端最實際的解決辦法還是在中菲之間。

為了推動南海問題重回正確軌道，中方提議由中國和東盟外長共同發(fā)表《全面有效落實南海各方行為宣言的聯(lián)合聲明》，這一提議得到東盟十國一致支持。11位外長于7月25日對外共同發(fā)表聲明。中方一直認為，《宣言》是中國和東盟國家共同達成并一致遵守的地區(qū)規(guī)則，是維護南海地區(qū)和平與穩(wěn)定的行為指南。以一紙裁決企圖否定《宣言》的約束力，是對所有《宣言》簽署國的國家意志和信譽的詆毀，是不能被接受的。外長們在萬象發(fā)表的《聯(lián)合聲明》的核心內容是，爭議由直接當事方通過對話協(xié)商和平解決，南海穩(wěn)定由中國和東盟國家共同維護。這恰恰是東盟提出和中國倡導的“雙軌思路”。中方認為，“雙軌思路”是維護南海和平穩(wěn)定、解決南海爭議的切實有效的正確途徑。《聯(lián)合聲明》明確發(fā)出了中國和東盟共同維護南海和平穩(wěn)定的信號，也表明中國和東盟各方通過聲明承諾回到由直接當事方協(xié)商解決具體爭議的正確軌道。

三、美日澳成為地區(qū)和平穩(wěn)定的攪局者

東亞合作系列會議由高官會（通常由各國副部級官員出席）、部長會和領導人會三個層級組成。通常情況下，高官會一年舉行2次，外長會一年1次，領導人會一年1次。這三個層級既各自獨立，又相互關聯(lián)。理論上講，高官會、部長會和領導人會均有自身的議題，同時高官會的任務又是為部長會作準備，而部長會則又是為領導人會作準備。領導人會是每年東亞合作系列會議的最高潮。東亞合作系列會議不僅有上述三個層級，且每一層級都由幾個機制的會議組成，分別是東盟官員內部會議、東盟與對話伙伴會議（10+1，即東盟與每一個對話伙伴的會議）、東盟與中日韓三國會議（10+3）、東亞峰會（EAS）和東盟地區(qū)論壇（ARF）。①東盟的對話伙伴是中國、美國、日本、韓國、俄羅斯、歐盟、印度、加拿大、新西蘭和澳大利亞。EAS的成員是東盟十國、中國、美國、日本、韓國、俄羅斯、印度、新西蘭和澳大利亞。ARF的成員是東盟十國、中國、美國、日本、韓國、俄羅斯、歐盟、印度、加拿大、新西蘭、澳大利亞、朝鮮、蒙古、巴基斯坦、孟加拉國、斯里蘭卡、巴布亞新幾內亞和東帝汶。今年東亞合作系列外長會議的全稱叫：第49屆東盟外長會議暨東盟與對話伙伴外長會議（49thAMM/PMCs）、第17屆東盟與中日韓三國外長會議（17thAPTFMM）、第6屆東亞峰會外長會議（6thEASFMM）、第23屆東盟地區(qū)論壇（23rdARF）及相關會議。ARF只有高官和外長兩個層級的會議，沒有領導人會議。

東盟國家官員內部會議是每一次東亞合作系列會議的開場戲。緊隨其后的是10+1和東盟與中日韓10+3會議，接著才舉行東亞峰會（EAS）和東盟地區(qū)論壇（ARF）。EAS和ARF只是論壇性質的會議，區(qū)別是EAS被定位為“領導人引領的戰(zhàn)略論壇”，按設計應聚焦能源、環(huán)境和災害管理、教育、公共衛(wèi)生、金融和互聯(lián)互通六個優(yōu)先領域。ARF只有高官和外長層次的會議，著重討論安全問題，聚焦建立信任措施、開展預防性外交和探討解決沖突的方式等事項。這些年來在ARF框架下有關國家舉辦了各類涉及安全問題的研討班、培訓班以及應對非傳統(tǒng)安全問題的演習。其中，中國承辦的項目最多，貢獻最大。

在上述不同層級、不同機制的會議中，東盟國家外長會具有特殊的重要性。一是因為東盟外長會討論的議題內容最廣泛、最務實；二是因為東盟外長會后，通常要在所有成員國反復磋商后發(fā)表一份聯(lián)合公報，以表明東盟國家對方方面面問題的立場；三是相對于包括領導人會議在內的其他層級或機制僅僅發(fā)表主席聲明作為會議文件，外長聯(lián)合公報是林林總總會議中內容最全面、形式最正式的成果文件；四是東盟外長聯(lián)合公報的內容不僅是東亞峰會及東盟地區(qū)論壇外長級會議主席聲明內容的重要依據(jù)，也是之后召開的領導人會議相關文件的重要依據(jù)。由于東盟強調它在區(qū)域合作中的中心地位，而且域內外其他國家也都一再表示支持東盟在地區(qū)事務中的中心地位，因此東盟外長聯(lián)合公報被認為是整個東亞合作系列會議中最重要的文件。也正因此，東盟外長聯(lián)合公報受到域內外國家超乎尋常的密切關注。

今年的東盟外長會于7月24日在老撾首都萬象舉行。東盟十國外長們討論的議題十分廣泛，集中圍繞今年會議的主題“將愿景變成現(xiàn)實：致力于充滿活力的東盟共同體”展開。今年是東盟宣布成立共同體后的第一年，會議認為東盟在建立經(jīng)濟共同體、政治安全共同體和社會文化共同體方面取得了很大成就，但也面臨不少挑戰(zhàn)。今年東盟外長聯(lián)合公報題為“將愿景變成現(xiàn)實：致力于充滿活力的東盟共同體”，內容由9個部分構成，分別是：建設東盟共同體、東盟政治安全共同體、東盟經(jīng)濟共同體、東盟社會文化共同體、東盟互聯(lián)互通、東盟對外關系、東盟地區(qū)論壇、區(qū)域與全球問題、關于第50屆東盟外長會。由于此次系列外長會是菲律賓南海仲裁案之后在本地區(qū)舉行的最重要外交活動，南海問題以及仲裁裁決受到西方國家格外關注。聯(lián)合公報原本應在會后不久公布，但由于域外勢力大肆對東盟一些國家施壓，菲、越等國試圖將仲裁、大規(guī)模島礁建設等影射中國的內容塞入公報，遭到東盟內一些國家的反對，東盟成員國遲遲不能達成共識。為盡快就公報涉南海內容達成一致，老撾外長沙倫賽根據(jù)印尼外長蕾特諾的建議臨時召集東盟外長特別會議進行討論。25日上午，第49屆東盟外長會聯(lián)合公報終于出臺，其中只字未提菲律賓南海仲裁案及裁決結果。

南海問題本來只是有關聲索國的事。在東盟內涉南海爭議的4個聲索國中，菲律賓和越南與中國的分歧比較突出，而馬來西亞和文萊則在處理同中國的南海問題糾紛時相對理智平和。近年來，南海問題急劇升溫，原因相當復雜?？傮w上看，一是域內一些國家誤判形勢，謀求侵蝕中國主權利益，以為中國會吞下苦果；二是域內一些國家的政治人物企圖借操弄民族主義話題，轉嫁內部矛盾，撈取政治私利；三是域外一些國家對中國經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展、國力不斷增強、周邊影響持續(xù)上升日益焦慮，謀求通過挑撥離間破壞中國同周邊國家特別是東盟國家的良好合作關系，干擾中國的發(fā)展進程。在這些背景下，自美國推出所謂“亞太再平衡”戰(zhàn)略后，南海形勢被炒得越來越熱鬧，原本與南海問題并不相關的國家也紛紛卷入其中。

仔細看過今年東盟外長聯(lián)合公報的人都清楚，東盟國家外長討論的事務很多，重點是如何進一步建設東盟共同體，如何加強東盟國家在政治、經(jīng)濟、社會、人文及互聯(lián)互通等領域的務實合作。在東盟國家外長公報共9個部分、192個段落的內容中，南海問題出現(xiàn)在倒數(shù)第二部分的區(qū)域和全球問題當中，內容有8段，約占公報段落總數(shù)的4%。很顯然，南海問題雖然被一些國家炒得很熱，但實際上并不是東盟多數(shù)國家關注的重點。對它們來說，國內穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展等問題要比南海問題重要得多。這一點在7月25日舉行的東盟國家與中國（10+1）外長會議以及東盟國家與中日韓（10+3）外長會議上都表現(xiàn)得很突出。東盟多數(shù)國家外長強調，在世界經(jīng)濟增長放緩、本地區(qū)國家普遍面臨民生壓力的情況下，充分利用中國經(jīng)濟的引領作用是當務之急。當個別國家外長在會上拿南海問題說事時，泰國外長敦明確指出，大家應把精力更多放在如何實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的問題上，而非浪費與中國這樣一個重要國家外長在一起的時間。

出乎人們意料的是，就在東盟外長公報避免提及仲裁裁決等敏感問題時，美國、日本和澳大利亞等與南海問題不相干的國家變得焦躁不安。這些國家對東盟外長公報沒能支持裁決結果深為不滿，對公報甚至沒有提及仲裁這個詞極為失望。在這一背景下，美日澳三國外長決定披掛上陣，沖到前臺。7月25日深夜，美國伙同日本、澳大利亞匆匆拋出三方聯(lián)合聲明，聲援仲裁庭的裁決，強調裁決具有約束力。7月26日，在第六屆東亞峰會外長會上，美日澳等國外長在發(fā)言中繼續(xù)拿南海仲裁案說事。很顯然，人們看到，一方面本地區(qū)國家決心深化合作，期待南海局勢降溫，另一方面這個三方聲明卻還在煽動升溫；一方面本地區(qū)國家都不愿在仲裁案上選邊站隊，認為這是中菲的雙邊問題，另一方面這個三方聲明仍一口咬定充滿爭議的所謂裁決具有法律約束力；一方面世界上70多個國家以不同方式表達理解和支持中國的正當立場，另一方面這個三方聲明仍在明里暗里指責中國。①http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/w jbzhd/t1384333.shtm l,visited on August20,2016.這個聲明的發(fā)表很不合時宜，與形勢的發(fā)展極不和諧。這個聲明與本地區(qū)國家正在維護南海穩(wěn)定的努力不相符合，與本地區(qū)人民希望南海局勢降溫的愿望不相符合，與域外國家應發(fā)揮建設性作用不相符合。

仲裁裁決公布后不久，媒體一度披露，美國政府通過“靜悄悄”的外交勸說菲律賓、印尼、越南和其他東亞國家不要利用裁決采取過激行動。報道說，消息來源顯示，“這些信息有些是通過美國駐各國大使館或各國駐華盛頓使館傳遞的，有些則是國防部長卡特和國務卿克里等高級官員直接傳遞的。美國呼吁各國保持冷靜，而非糾結各國共同針對中國，為的是避免讓這樣一種猜測成為事實，即美國正在領導一個遏制中國的同盟?！雹贚esley W roughton,"QuietDiplomacy to Ease SCSTensions",the Jakarta Post,July 15,2016.然而，上述消息與美國官員后來實際的所作所為有很大出入。從奧巴馬總統(tǒng)到克里國務卿都多次聲稱，仲裁裁決是“最終的、有法律約束力的”。③Ben Otto,"Kerry Backs Bilateral Talks in Maritime Spat"美軍太平洋司令部司令哈里斯在東京智庫“日本重建倡議”（RJIF）主辦的“日美軍人政治家論壇”上發(fā)表演講時，要求包括中國在內的相關國家“尊重基于《公約》的仲裁機制”。由于中國拒絕接受仲裁結果，哈里斯表示，亞太地區(qū)數(shù)十年來的和平與繁榮是“基于規(guī)則的秩序”帶來的，“不能被特定國家隨意左右”。④共同社：《美軍太平洋司令部司令哈里斯在東京發(fā)表演講》，2016年7月27日。哈里斯顯然是暗示中國不守規(guī)則，謀求左右規(guī)則制定。

然而，包括哈里斯在內的美國官員心里明白，南海問題被炒得這么熱，正是他們幾年來努力的結果。至于規(guī)則，在他們看來，什么叫規(guī)則，以及誰可以左右規(guī)則，也只能由美國說了算。2009年以來，美國高官反復發(fā)表講話，對中國的南海政策說三道四，對與中國有爭議的國家則明確予以支持。美國在南海問題上奉行“雙重標準”，一方面對中國的島礁建設橫加指責，另一方面卻選擇性無視越南、菲律賓等國在南海非法占領中國42個島礁，并從上世紀80年代至今持續(xù)推進島礁建設的事實。美國的“亞太再平衡”戰(zhàn)略讓一些聲索國產(chǎn)生了幻覺，它們一廂情愿地認為，只要有美國撐腰，就能通過對抗解決南海問題。美國習慣于在全球事務中既當警察又當法官，喜歡制定評判是非的標準，并由自己來把握執(zhí)行的尺度。中國堅定支持建立以公正合理的規(guī)則為基礎的國際秩序，但國際法制應為整個國際社會所遵守，而不應淪為一些國家借以實現(xiàn)政治企圖的工具。⑤Xu Bu,"US'Rebalancing'is Fishing in S.China Sea's TroubledWaters",The Straits Times,May 19,2016.

四、一些國家不會放棄在南海渾水摸魚的政策

從今年東亞合作系列外長會可以看出，兩股勢力、兩種觀點的交鋒是明顯的。一些國家不愿意看到形勢緩和下來，對搬弄是非、挑撥離間有特別濃厚的興趣。日本政府官員對炒作南海問題尤其熱情高漲。安倍晉三首相、岸田文雄外相不失一切時機渲染南海問題，為仲裁裁決站臺。8月12日，岸田文雄結束他在仲裁裁決后對菲律賓的首次訪問，此訪一項重要成果是日方將向菲方贈送兩艘巡邏艦。據(jù)披露，岸田文雄勸說菲新政府堅持仲裁裁決，不要與中國進行雙邊磋商。日本共同社評論說，日菲兩國表面看上去合拍，事實上態(tài)度并不一致，“日本希望繼續(xù)在南海問題上擺出強硬立場，而菲律賓新政府卻因重視對華關系不愿激化矛盾”。①《外媒熱議中菲關系重新點燃》，《亞太日報》2016年8月14日。《日經(jīng)新聞》稱，“如果菲律賓傾向同中國進行雙邊談判，東盟步調有可能發(fā)生混亂”。不難看出，對菲律賓可能與中國開啟雙邊談判，日本似乎比誰都著急。這種奇怪的心態(tài)，是常人難以理解的。

美國官方和輿論對東盟內南海聲索國與中國進行雙邊談判的阻撓也不會放松。在日本外相岸田文雄到訪菲律賓之前，美國國務卿克里在今年東亞合作系列外長會結束后就匆匆前往訪菲，一面說支持中菲談判，另一面又強調所謂仲裁裁決的約束力。②Ben Otto,"Kerry Backs Bilateral Talks in Maritime Spat",美國記者維加·約瑟挑撥說，東盟各國的不同立場在萬象外長會上徹底展示出來，“過去一直被吹噓的東盟團結一團糟，中國將變得更加強硬”。③Vijay Joshi,"Chinaw illbe Tougherafter the ASEAN Foreign M inistersMeeting",The New York Times,July17.哈佛大學教授沃爾特·克萊門斯赤裸裸地呼吁東盟國家一致對抗中國。他說，“中國不希望面對一個團結的東盟，它總是在試圖分化和壓服各個國家。單獨面對中國，東盟國家沒有任何優(yōu)勢可言，中國反倒可以軟硬兼施，逼迫各國就范。十個東盟國家只有團結起來才可以抵制和平衡一個擴張主義的中國”。④http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/asean?and?the?logic?of?collective?action/,July 28,2016,visited on August20,2016.一些西方學者把矛頭指向柬埔寨，稱其反對東盟支持仲裁裁決導致了東盟的分裂。美國伍德羅·威爾遜國際學者中心的貝恩德·謝佛認為，讓柬埔寨這樣一個不是南海聲索方而且是東盟成員國中唯一一個尚未批準《公約》的國家在這一爭議中承擔如此重要的角色是“有違常理”的。⑤VOA,"Cambodia hasa Price to Pay"July 30,2016.

美國上述學者的觀點充滿了傲慢，其邏輯是強盜式的：似乎一個國家只有支持仲裁裁決，才是作出了正確選擇；似乎東盟只有站在與中國對抗的一面，美國才能認可東盟是團結一致的；似乎中國只有甘愿讓東盟批判自己，才不算是在分裂東盟；似乎別的國家不批準《公約》就沒資格對有關問題發(fā)表看法，而同樣是沒批準《公約》的美國則可以為所欲為；似乎中國奉行睦鄰友好的周邊政策倒成了擴張主義者，而美國在世界上到處找敵人、到處采取軍事行動倒是個和平主義者。這是西方文明優(yōu)越論的典型表現(xiàn)，也是美國人根深蒂固的超級大國霸權觀念的集中反映。這甚至引起西方自身一些輿論的疑問。美聯(lián)社記者7月26日從萬象發(fā)出的一篇報道指出，“一個很有趣的現(xiàn)象是，在美日澳就仲裁裁決發(fā)表強硬聲明的同時，和解的情緒充斥在萬象中國與東盟國家的外長會上，那些與中國存在領土爭議的國家對指責中國反而沒有太多熱情。”這位記者寫道，“菲律賓對東盟發(fā)表措辭強硬的聯(lián)合聲明也沒有太過強求，菲一直強調仲裁案是菲單方面提起的訴訟，暗示東盟不應該介入其中。馬來西亞外長則自始至終都沒有出現(xiàn)在會議上。文萊在會議上稱贊中國的領導能力。越南副外長黎懷忠告訴記者，越南傾向于同中國進行雙邊談判解決領土爭議”。①"The ASEAN CountriesVoice forReconciliation",The Jakarta Post,July 30,2016.

東亞戰(zhàn)略態(tài)勢呈現(xiàn)出來的復雜局面是前所未有的。美國仍然是超級大國，在東亞地區(qū)的政治、軍事及經(jīng)濟格局中具有重要影響力。中國成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟體，是東盟所有國家的最大貿(mào)易伙伴和重要投資來源。日本、澳大利亞等國對中國正在上升成為東亞最重要的政治和經(jīng)濟大國深感不安，尤其是日本對自身影響力的下降越來越焦慮。東盟內也有一些國家對中國的崛起感到擔憂，希望借助美國制衡中國，但它們又看到中國在政治和經(jīng)濟等方面對本地區(qū)的引領作用，謀求加強與中國的務實合作。東盟國家明白，仲裁裁決之后現(xiàn)實沒有任何改變，有關分歧最終仍必須通過外交手段和平協(xié)商解決。美國官員也清楚，仲裁裁決不會產(chǎn)生實際效果，走得太遠可能給中美關系造成更大的損害，但同時又幻想可以利用裁決繼續(xù)挑起東盟國家對中國的不滿，借此給中國的周邊穩(wěn)定制造麻煩。由此，我們看到美國官員的言行不時出現(xiàn)自相矛盾的情形。

裁決結果出來后，中方并未做出激烈反應，沒有像西方媒體大量猜測并炒作的那樣“在南海上空劃設防空識別區(qū)，奪取其他南沙島礁的控制權，退出《公約》”等。③Kor Kian Beng,"Beijing'sResponse restrained so far",the Straits Times,July 15,2016.新加坡《海峽時報》說，這是因為中方認為仲裁裁決不過是“一張廢紙”，從另一個角度看，中方所展示的克制“體現(xiàn)了中國的自信”。④Kor Kian Beng,"Beijing'sResponse restrained so far",the Straits Times,July 15,2016.這個評論不禁讓筆者想起了7月26日東亞峰會外長會后目睹的有趣一幕。針對美日澳三方于25日深夜發(fā)表的涉南海仲裁案三方聲明，王毅外長在東亞峰會上進行了嚴辭批判。會議結束后，美國國務卿克里立即走到王毅外長跟前說，美日澳昨晚發(fā)表的三方聲明最后一刻才到他手里，他沒有仔細看內容就簽發(fā)了，他對由此給中方帶來的困惑感到抱歉。由于澳大利亞外長與王毅外長座位相鄰，當克里對王毅外長說上述一番話時，澳大利亞官員也在現(xiàn)場。據(jù)說，美日澳三方聲明是日本出的主意。

南海仲裁案是試金石，檢驗的是域外國家是真心維護地區(qū)和平還是要攪亂南海局勢。對于本地區(qū)大多數(shù)國家而言，它們關注的是如何維護本地區(qū)的和平、穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展。一些域外國家對臨時仲裁庭作出的所謂裁決興奮不已，干擾了本地區(qū)的正常秩序，損害了本地區(qū)國家的整體利益。這種狀況正在引起越來越多國家的擔憂、反感和抵制。環(huán)顧世界，很多地區(qū)形勢動蕩不定。東亞地區(qū)是本地區(qū)國家的共同家園，多年的穩(wěn)定與發(fā)展來之不易。地區(qū)亂了，域外勢力可以抽身而退，但本地區(qū)國家無路可退，而且還要面對和解決各種后遺癥。正如王毅外長所說，無謂的政治操弄與炒作，必須盡快退燒降溫，還南海以安寧，還地區(qū)以穩(wěn)定。①http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/w jbzhd/t1384214.shtm l,visited on August20,2016.

The49thAMM and relatedmeetingswere convened in Vientiane,LaosPDR from 24 to26 July 2016. The Meetingswereheld againsta backdrop featuring East Asia haunted by a tense and fluid situation inthe South China Sea,fresh issuance of the award of arbitration case and certain forces both w ithin and outside the region trying to point fingersatChina.Therefore,theMeetingsattracted keenattention from the countries related and the international community.Therewere concernson how theMeetingswould proceed,whether theMeetingswould behijacked by the South China Sea issueandwhat theoutcome documentswould look like.TheMeetings later turned outthatmoreandmore regionalcountries feltupset about the regional practical cooperation being hijacked by the South China Sea issue,and showed resentmenttowardstheexternal forcesrecklessly hyping thearbitration case,which indicated thatseeking stability and cooperationwere still common aspirationsof the countries in our region.

I.The Arbitration Award GeneratingW idespread Worries

On12 July 2016,anarbitral tribunalon theSouth ChinaSea issue,puttogetherona temporary basis upon theunilateral requestby the former government of the Republic of the Philippines,issued the so?called award.Itwaswellexpected thatthisbiased award completely supported the Philippines'position. As immediate responses from China,the ChineseM inistry of Foreign A ffairs(MFA)issued astatement to affirm China's staunch positionofnon?acceptanceand non?recognition on theaward.At the same time, theMFAwasalso authorized to issue the Statementof theGovernmentof the People'sRepublic of Chinaon China's TerritorialSovereignty and MaritimeRightsand Interests in the South ChinaSea,and theChinese Foreign M inisterWang Yialsomade remarkson this issue.On 13 July,the Chinesegovernment issued a White Paper titled China Adheres to the Position of Settling through Negotiation the RelevantDisputes between Chinaand the Philippinesin the SouthChina Sea.Chinamaintainsaclear?cutposition thattheso?called award is null,void and of no binding force,and China neither acceptsnor recognizes it.

Such countriesoutside the regionas the U.S.and Japan did theirutmostto hype thearbitration case and reck lessly m isinterpreted the UNCLOS,incited on purpose the arbitration court to abuse its authority and evenmanipulated the composition of arbitration tribunalmembersoutof politicalmotives. In fact,theessenceof the subject?matterof thearbitration is the territorialsovereignty oversome islands and reefs in the South China Seaandmustnotbeseparated from maritimedelim itation between Chinaand the Philippines.The issues concerning territorialsovereignty are notsubject to the UNCLOS.In 2006, inaccordancewith Article298of theUNCLOS,China filed thedeclaration toexclude,interalia,disputes concerning maritime delim itation from compulsory arbitration and other compulsory dispute settlement procedures.A lthough the Philippines claimed that they did not seek the rulings on issues concerning territorial sovereignty andmaritime delim itation,the Philippines,during thewhole arbitration process and especially in the courthearings,did insist to deny China's territorialsovereignty andmaritime rights in the South China Sea.In thissense,thearbitration casevirtually setavery bad precedentby discarding thepasteffectiveapproach to peacefully solve thedisputes through dialogueand consultationby theparties directly concerned,denying bilateralagreements between China and the Philippines to resolve disputes through consultationsand violating the Philippines'solemn comm itmentin theDeclarationon theConduct of Parties in the South China Sea(DOC)in 2002.

Atpresent,theUSand otherwestern countriesaredom inantinmanipulating themedia in theworld, thusenjoying enormousadvantages in agenda setting,opinion shaping,technologicaledge,top?notchequipmentsand communication capacities.Meanwhile,thedeveloping countries faceadilemmainstead, either follow ingwestern countriesatthe latter'sdisposal,orbeing regarded asdissidents,demonized and pressured by western countries.There exists a yawning gap of international rights of speech between emerging powersand developed western countries.When the award cameout,thewesternmedia tried itsutmost to blacken China'sname,slingingmud againstChina,churning outsuch issuesas so?called" international laws","rules"and"order",and labeling China as"law?breaker"and"rule?destroyer". However,therearestillsomeobvious loopholesand fallacies in thearbitration case found,evenby some western expertswho castquestionsand doubtson theaward,mainly as follows:

First,the so?called aw ard is politically motivated in obvious terms.The Australian experts said that the award virtually pushed the Chinese leaders into a tight corner,butnot a single great pow erwas likely to accept an international legal verdict thatm ight harm its national interests. A t a sem inar held in Singapore,some senior law experts commented that,from the perspective of international law,the aw ard w as quite"bold"and the arbitrators seem ingly comm itted them selvesw ith a"m ission"to further develop international law s.On law issues,"bold"and" innovative"are definitely not com p liments because the top priorities of arbitrators should be adhering to theexisting rules instead of introducing so?called new rules.TheUNCLOSwasa treaty signed by sovereign states and the ad hoc arbitral tribunal has no rightmaking decisions on any rules related.The experts from Griffith University of Australia pointed out that the tribunal's award broke the'ambiguous balance'in the South China Sea disputes.A lthough the arbitration should have beenmeant to resolve themaritime disputes in the South China Sea,the aw ard,on the contrary,resulted in unintended negative im plicationson regionalsecurity.For the Philippines, since the tribunal does not have enforcementmechanism,this nom inal victory canno t be automatically or easily transferred into substantial territorial and maritime gains.The arbitration may have ushered in a new eraof disputes,but itcannotchange thenatureof theworld politicswhich isbasedmoreon power than rules.

Second,theaward isquiteunprofessional.Someinternational law experts from theUSand European countriesmade it clear that the arbitral tribunal produced a strictdefinition of"island"and createdmore troubles rendering negative implications not only on China's dispute with the Philippines in the South ChinaSea.Thearbitral tribunalviolated theprinciplesof international law by downgrading the legalstatus of Taiping Island to a"rock"deprived ofmaritime rights,despite the fact that Taiping Island covers an area of about0.5 square kilometersas the largestnaturally formed island among Nansha Zhudao.Peter Coyw rote that,aChinesedisputehad a rippleeffectonexclusiveeconom iczonesaround theworld.The USand other littoralnations could losem illions of square nauticalm iles of ocean thatarenow in their exclusive econom ic zones.An expert from Massachusetts Institute of Technology also illustrated that, according to thehighand strictcriteriasetby theaward,the current legalstatusofsome"islands"claimed by related countrieswould be running against the award and should be downgraded to"rocks",such as Okinotoriclaimed by Japan and Kingman Reef claimed by the USw ith a 200?nautical?m ile exclusive econom ic zone in the North Pacific.

Third,theaward seriously interferesw ith theeffortsto resolvedisputes throughnegotiations.ManySoutheastAsian scholarsheld theview thatthenew Philippinegovernment,on theeveof theaward being given,sentoutsignalson severaloccasions that the Philippineswould like to solve the South China Sea issuew ith China through bilateral consultation.However,with domestic hysterical sentiments towards theaward,itisevenharder for the Philippines togiveup theassumedly obtained rights.While forChina whose claimswere rejected,itisequally impossible to flyawhite flagundertremendousdomestic pressure ofnationalism.Itisnoteasy for the claimantstomakecomprom ises.Tang Siew Mun,a researcher from Yusof Ishak Instituteof Singapore viewed that,ASEAN had no reason to be deeply involved into the arbitration case because the arbitration itselfwasnot initiated by ASEAN and requiresno solutions from ASEAN.As the Australian scholars justsaid,differentclaimantshad interpreted the UNCLOS tomake claimsin theirown favor.No country had unchallenged claimsin the SouthChinaSea.The legalambiguity provided certain flexibility for all claimants tomanage their behavior and left room for comprom ise if deemed necessary.

Theaward virtually putanend to thisambiguity and itwould benaive to believe thatan award could resolve the disputes.Facing the domestic pressure,especially mounting nationalistic sentiments from w ithin,the Chinesegovernmenthad to take suchmeasuresasm ilitary exercises.Theaward also runsa risk of letting the Philippines and other potential beneficiaries of the award to becomemore assertive to takeunwiseactions.

Fourth,theawardw illgive rise tomore fiercecompetitionbetween Chinaand theUS.An Australia scholar said in hisarticle China Loses in CourtbutWins at Sea that the South China Sea issue does not onlymean disputes of overlapping territorial sovereignty ormaritime resources between China,the Philippinesand otherclaimants,butalsoa touchstone to testhow Chinaand theUS,astwomajorpowers, would dealw ith each other in the power shifting.As the strategic competitors,there exists possibility thatChina and the USmay end up in confrontation and strategicm iscalculation in the South China Sea. Once it happens,the world's busiest trade route will be haunted by unpredictable and uncontrollable conflicts.Up tillnow,Australia is actually reluctant to stay too close to the US,thus refraining from taking partin theUS?led patroloperationsaround the islandsand rocksunderChina'scontrol.Theexperts from theSchoolof InternationalRelationsofGriffith University of Australiasaid thatallparties,especially China and the US,should cool down emotions,lower expectations,avoid conflicts,shelve disputes and seek cooperation.

Fifth,theawardmay underm ine thesecurity and freedom of tradein the South China Sea.According to the USmedia,the award sparked theworries of trade security because the award by arbitral tribunal denying China's claim s overmost of South China Sea did bring about enormous uncertainties for regionalshipping and trade.Shipping companieshave longworried thatescalating tensions in the South China Sea could affectglobalcommerce.Theaward on 12 July"could embolden smallerAsian countries to bemoreassertive regarding their rights in thesewaters,increasing run?inswith China and leading to possible disruptions of freedom of navigation."Eric Shimp,a former U.S.trade representative to ASEAN,said thepotential for conflictincreases ifgovernmentsinterprettheaward asanasserted control. Heemphasized,"If thereisagovernment?backed increasein commercew ithouta concurrentconversation w ith the Chinese,that issomething that rampsup the potential for conflict".

Sixth,the Philippines'loss in essenceoutweighs itsgains in face.In hisarticle"The South China Seaarbitration case:Who reallywon?",the AustralianexpertChengxin Pan said,thearbitration award even shockedmany expertswho had alwaysanticipated China'sdefeat.But"Will theaward herald anew era in the long?running South China Sea disputes?Will theaward benefit the Philippinesand other small claimants?The jury,Ithink,is stillout."Chengxin Pan said,"We should notbeblind to the fact that the disputeshave never been purely a legalor technicalmatter.The biased and one?sided nature of the awardmakes iteven harder to be implemented.Whetherbeing islandsornot,these features in the South China Seahave longbeen regarded assymbolsofsovereignty.A one?sided arbitration is far from enough addressing the issue."AsHarvard ProfessorGraham Allisonnoted,"Noneof the fivepermanentmembers of the UN Security Councilhave ever accepted any international court's ruling when,in their view,it infringed upon their sovereignty or national security interests."If the US,along with the Philippines, Vietnam and other countries,now decide to drive a harder bargain against China,Beijing w ill feel compelled to build itsm ilitary infrastructure to respond in kind.Chinam ightemerge asabiggerwinner if this legalvictorymakes some politiciansacton thebelief that it'snow time to rein in Beijing.

Seventh,the award will have no substantive implications on China's policy.Andrei Ostrovsky, Deputy Director of the Institute of the Far Eastern Studies(IFES)of Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS),stated in hisarticle published on the Russian newspaper Pravda that,"For China,being given theaward by the arbitration court in the Hague is nomore than being stung by amosquito.In principle, the arbitration does not substantially impact China.It ismerely a record of anxieties of theWestern countries towards China's rising in political fields.In otherwords,it is the so?called wedging.The arbitrationhas littlevalue in termsofactual implementation."The Indonesian Foreign M inisterRetno LP Marsudinoted that,"Everybody knowsthatthearbitration rulingon12 July isnotaverdictthatw ill resolve anyoutstanding issueson borderdelim itation among claimantstates.As for the issueofdelim itation itself,itisup to the claimants to clear thingsup.During the ASEAN?China Foreign M inisterialMeeting, both the Philippines and Chinamade statements that they were ready to start negotiating,and that is somethingwehighly appreciate.We'llleaveitto them to carry outthenegotiationsasthey see fit.Foreign M inister Retno said,"Themain concern of Indonesia in the South China Sea is the issue of stability. History and experiencehaveshown timeand again thatoncean area isprone to powerprojections,itw ill becomeevenmore complicated.Once thepushand pullbegins,itbecomesvery difficult foreverybody. To ensure that the region remains peaceful iswhatwe strive for."Channelnewsasia.com published an articleon14 July saying that,ASEAN has released jointstatementsexpressing concernsover the issueof South China Sea,while taking carenotto singleoutChina.ASEAN failed to issuea jointstatementafter theaward,the formerPhilippineUN representative Lauro Bajasaid,"This indicatesthat,since the South China Sea issuew illpotentially divide ASEAN,we should no longerexpect in the future that therewill bean ASEAN statementon China".

II.ASEAN Countries Valuing PracticalCooperation w ith China

The year2016marks the25thAnniversary of China?ASEANDialogueRelations.Both sidesstarted theirdialogueprocess in 1991and the relationshipwaselevated toastrategic dialoguepartnership in 2003.In theafternoon of24 July,afterhisarrival,Foreign M inisterWang Yiimmediately kicked off intensive bilateralmeetings.In themorning of 25 July,China?ASEAN Foreign M inisters'Meeting was held in Vientiane in a friendly atmosphere.80%of theMeeting focused on developmentand cooperation.For dialogue partnersof ASEAN,their respective session w ith ASEAN(also known as10+1)is themost substantiveone.For example,China?ASEANmeeting is themost importantone for China.It is the occasion onwhich Chinaand ASEAN hold their in?depth discussionson practical cooperation in allareas concerned and issue relevantstatementsordocumentson cooperation.The related ForeignM inistershave recognized that,among ASEAN's ten dialoguepartners,Chinastandsoutas the closestoneand China?ASEAN cooperation hasbeenmostpracticaland fruitful.

During the past 25 years,dialoguemechanisms have been established at all levels and in various areasbetween Chinaand ASEAN,and high?levelexchangesbetween the two sideshavebeen frequent. Amongalldialoguepartners,Chinawas the firstto sign the Treaty of Am ity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia,the firsttoestablishastrategic partnershipw ith ASEAN,the firsttoexpresswillingness to sign the protocol to SoutheastAsian Nuclear?Weapon?Free Zone Treaty and the first to confirm building a free tradeareaw ith ASEAN.The two sideshaveestablished a completedialogueand cooperation system at leaders',ministers'and seniorofficials'levels.Bothsideshavesetupm inisterialmeetingmechanismsrelated to theaffairsconcerningdiplomacy,economy,transport,directors?generalin chargeof customs,prosecutors?general,youth,health,telecommunications,press,quality control,combating transnational crimes, law enforcementand security cooperation.Atsenior?officialandworking levels,bothsideshaveestablished cooperation and dialoguemechanisms inmore than 20 areas.China and ASEAN concluded the Plan of Action to Implement the JointDeclaration on China-ASEAN Strategic Partnership for Peaceand Prosperity (2016?2020)in November2015,drawingablueprint forChina?ASEAN relationsover thenextfiveyears. Multi?tiered exchangesand practicalcooperationhaveprovided an importantplatform fordeepeningmutual trustand laid a solid foundation for the sound and stabledevelopmentof relations.

Tradeand investmentcooperation isan im portantpillar of China?ASEAN bilateral relations. Our trade volume topped US$472 billion in 2015,almost 60 times larger than that of 1991, w hich w asonly US$7960m illion.China has been ASEAN's biggest trading partner for seven consecutive yearsw hile ASEAN ranked as China's third largest trading partner for five consecutive years.Our tw o?w ay investment in aggregate grew from US$500 m illion in 1991 to US$156.4 billion in 2015,more than 300 times larger.China and ASEAN are cooperating in 11 major fields:agriculture,IT,human resource development,investment,theM ekong Riverdevelopment, transport,energy,culture,tourism,public health and environment.Our cooperation in trade, investment and industry has been g row ing c loser and c loser to form an interdependen t and interconnected pattern of grow th.Both sides established the largest Free Trade A rea(FTA)of developing countries in 2010,and reached the agreementon upgrading our FTA in 2015,which has entered into effect on 1 July 2016.We have prom oted rem arkable peop le?to?peop le exchanges.The peop le?to?peop le exchange volume in 2003 only stood at 3.87m illion person times.The figure rocketed to 23m illion in 2015.Chinahasbecome the largestsource of foreign tourists to ASEAN.

China has actively participated in the ASEAN?led mechanisms of regional cooperation.The two sides have conducted various cooperation and exchanges under such frameworks as ASEAN?China (10+1),ASEAN Regional Forum(ARF),ASEAN Defense M inisters'Meeting Plus(ADMM?Plus) and ASEAN?China,Japanand South Korea(APT).Chinahasproposedover100 initiativesof cooperation under the framework of10+1.Under the frameof APT,Chinahasproactively participated and promoted cooperationon key areas,i.e.financialsecurity,tradeand investment,agricultureand poverty reduction, thuselevating the construction of the East Asian Econom ic Community.Chinahasactively safeguarded the EASasa"leaders?led strategic forum"and advanced cooperation in six key areas,thusmaking itsdue contribution to the development of the EAS.China always actively participates in the dialogue and cooperationunder the ARF framework.Chinahasheldmore than40 cooperation projectssince theForum was founded and cooperation projectsundertaken by Chinaaccount forone third of the totalARFprojects each year,ranking the firstamong ARFmembers.It fully shows thatChinasupports the developmentof the ARFw ith concreteactions.

Dealing w ith non?traditional security threatshas constituted an importantpartof China?ASEAN security cooperation.The two sideskeep expanding theirm ilitary and defenseexchangesand cooperation. In 2011,the defensem inistersof Chinaand ASEAN had exchanges for the first time.In 2015,the1st China?ASEAN DefenseM inisters InformalMeetingand theChina?ASEANM inisterialDialogueon Law Enforcementand Security Cooperation were held.The tw o sides have held the ASEAN Plus China M inisterialMeeting on Transnational Crime(AMMTC+China)every two years since1997 and signed the China?ASEAN Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the Field of Non?Traditional Security.Under thismechanism,the two sideshavemaintained close cooperation in combating drug trafficking,illegalm igration,pirates,terrorism,armssmuggling,money launderingand international econom ic and cyberspace crimes.The Chinese Prem ier LiKeqiang proposed at the18th China?ASEAN Leaders'Meeting to jointly elevatesecurity cooperation,noting thatChinahopes to see the current Informal DefenseM inisters'Meeting institutionalized atanearly date,and explorewith ASEAN setting up adirect linebetween theChineseand ASEAN defenseauthoritiesand establishaChina?ASEAN law?enforcement academy in due course.Prem ier Lialso suggested thatChinawould provide2,000 training opportunities for the law?enforcementagenciesof ASEAN countries in thenext five years.

China?ASEAN relations are standing at a critical pointof linking the past and the future.At the China?ASEAN ForeignM inisters'Meetingon25 July,ForeignM inistersofASEAN countriesunderlined the significanceof China?ASEAN relationsand looked forward tomaking them even stronger.Foreign M inister Vivian Balakrishnan of Singapore said thatsharing the same goalofmaintaining the peace and stability of the region,ASEAN and China should takea forward?lookingapproach.M inisterof Foreign A ffairs and Trade IILim Jock Seng of Brunei said that China hasmade significant contributions to maintaining regional peace and stability.China's"One Belt,One Road"initiative aswellas the Asian Infrastructure InvestmentBank(AIIB)initiated by Chinawillbring about largeropportunities for the development in the region.Foreign M inister Don Pramudwinaiof Thailand mentioned that China is a close neighbor to ASEAN.The two sides have great potential for cooperation in the fields of trade, investment,tourism and connectivity.State Counselor and Foreign M inister Aung San Suu KyiofMyanmarnoted thatChina isagood friend to bothMyanmarand ASEAN asawhole.Despite theexisting divergences,the two sides are confident thatdivergences could be solved properly.Foreign M inister Saleumxay Kommasithof Laos said thatthe developmentofChinabringsabouttremendousopportunities for ASEAN countries.The two sides share common interests.Laos thanks China for itshelp to Laos' econom ic development.Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay of the Philippines said that,in the past 25 years,China?ASEAN relationshaveyielded fruitful results.Chinahasbecome thebiggesttrading partner. The AIIBw illhelp boost theeconom ic grow th of ASEAN countries.Foreign M inister Pham Binh M inh of VietNam pointed out that ASEAN?China tiesare themostsubstantialand fastest?growing among all dialoguepartners.VietNam attachesgreatimportance to thisspecial relationw ithChina.ForeignM inister Retno LPMarsudiof Indonesiamentioned thatChinaand ASEAN are friends,whose tradeand econom ic relations are growing closer and closer.Peace,stability and security are vital to the two sides.The Secretary General Tan SriOthman Hashim ofMalaysian Foreign M inistrymentioned that therehavebeen frequentexchanges inallaspectsand hoped thattheyearof 2017,tobe themed asChina?ASEAN Tourism Cooperation Year,could bring aboutmorepeople?to?peopleexchanges.Secretary of Stateand M inister of Foreign Affairsand International Cooperation Prak Sokhon of Cambodia said thatChina is the closest cooperation partner.Substantialprogresshasbeenmadeacross theboard.

As for thenextphaseof China?ASEAN relations,China put forward six key tasks,which received positive response from ASEAN countries:First,the two sides need to well host the commemorative summ itmarking the25thanniversaryof theestablishmentofChina?ASEANDialogueRelations.Through close cooperation,both sidesshould promote thesuccessof the Summ itsoas to send outapositivesignal. Second,the two sidesshould continue to promotepracticalcooperation so thatthe protocolonupgrading theChina?ASEAN Free Trade Areasigned in 2015China?ASEAN Leaders'Meeting could beeffectively implemented as soon as possible,econom ic and trade contacts can be further expanded,and industrial transformation and upgradew illbeadvanced.Third,the two sidesneed to createnew pillars for social, people?to?peopleand cultural cooperation.The two sideshave achieved tremendous progress in both fieldsofpoliticalsecurity,andeconom ic cooperationand trade.For thenextstep,both sidesw illprioritize educationand tourism and generate new driving forces for people?to?people exchangesand cultural cooperation.This year is China?ASEAN Education Exchange Year and China?ASEAN Tourism Cooperation Yearw ill be held in 2017.Fourth,the two sides should deepen cooperation in political security.China reiteratesitsw illingness tonegotiateand sign the Treaty ofGood Neighborly and Friendly Cooperation between China and the ASEAN with the ASEAN as soon as possible.China supports the ASEAN'sefforts in building the Southeast Asian nuclearweapon?free zone and isw illing to sign the related protocolw ith the ASEAN atan early date.Fifth,the two sidesneed to develop new platform s forsub?regional cooperation.China isw illing to help the ASEAN to narrow down internaldevelopment gap through the Lancang?Mekong Cooperation Mechanism andmakenew contributions to thebuilding of ASEANCommunityand the ASEAN integration process.Sixth,the two sidesshould jointly safeguard regionalpeaceand stability.Weagree toproceed from theoverallsituation,focuson cooperation,properly dealw ith differences,hold the key of regionalpeaceand stability in ourown handsand jointly explorea developmentpath conform ing to regional reality.

AttheMeeting,some countriesdidmention the South China Seasituation and the related issues. Foreign M inisters,in the spirit ofmutual respectandmutual trust,have exchanged views on these issues from a positive perspective.They allbelieve that the disputes over some islands and reefs of Nansha Zhudao are not an issue between China and ASEAN.These issues shall neither define China?ASEAN relationsnor com prom ise the overall developmentof China?ASEAN relations in the meantime.ASEAN,as awhole,takes no position on the arbitration case unilaterally initiated by the former Philippinegovernment,makesno commentson theaward and takesno sides.ASEAN regards the South China Sea issue asa bilateral issuebetween Chinaand the Philippinesand supports the two sides to seek solutions through bilateral dialoguesand consultations.Foreign M inisterWang Yisaid thattheaward given by the tem porary arbitral tribunal is fundamentally flawed and completely lacks legal basis.As this page has been turned over,the fever of unnecessary sensation caused by itshould be cooled down and thingsneed to beset right in the South China Sea issue.The Philippine Foreign Secretary Yasay also said that the Philippines didn't seek support from ASEAN or the international community during the process ofarbitration,and the Philippines didn'tw ant to see a divided ASEAN or an angered China because of arbitration.The arbitration award is notwhat ASEAN needs tohandlew ith,butthe issuebetween the Philippinesand China.Secretary Yasay also pointed out thatw hether you believe the victory belongs to the Philippines or China,w hat really counts is thatwe are seeking to peacefully resolve the disputes.Themost practicalway out for the disputes is stillup to the Philippinesand China.

In order tobring the South China Sea issueback onto the righttrack,Chinaproposed thatForeign M inisters of China and ASEAN countries issue a Joint Statem ent on the Full and Effective Implementationof theDOC,whichwasunanimously supported by allASEANMember States.China always believes that the DOC is a regional rule commonly agreed upon and upheld by China and ASEAN countries asw ell as a guideline to safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea. Denying thebinding forceof the DOC simply by a pieceof ruling isan actdefam ing thedeterm ination and credibility ofallDOC signatories.This isunacceptable.The core contentsof the JointStatement issued on 25 July are that the disputes should be peacefully settled by parties directly concerned through dialogues and consultations and that the stability in the South China Sea should be jointly safeguarded by China and ASEANmembers.This is precisely the"dual?track approach"proposed by ASEAN and advocated by China.China believes that the"dual?track approach"isan effective and correctway tomaintain peace and stability in the South China Sea and resolve the South China Sea disputes.The Joint Statement has sent a clearmessage that China and ASEAN w ill jointly safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea.Italso shows thatChinaand ASEAN have the capability andw isdom tomake the South China Seaaseaof peaceand cooperation.Ithelpsallparties enhancemutual trustand return to the right track of resolving disputes through bilateral dialogue and negotiation,aswellas sending a positive signal thatChinaand ASEAN w ill jointly safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea.It also shows that China and ASEAN are jointly comm itted through this Joint Statement to pull the South China Sea issue back to the right track of peacefully solving the disputes through consultation by parties directly concerned.

III.TheUS,Japan and Australia:Troublemakers for RegionalPeaceand Stability

The EastAsiameetingson cooperationare convened on three levels:SeniorOfficials'Meetings(usual ly attended by officials at the vice?ministerial level),Foreign M inisters'Meetings and Leaders'Meetings. Normally,SOMsw illbeheld twiceayear,while FMMsand Leaders'Meetingsareheld onceayear.These meetingsareboth independentand interrelated.Theoretically,SOMs,FMMsand Leaders'Meetingsallhave theirownagendasettings.Meanwhile,SOMsmakepreparations forFMMsand FMMsprepares for Leaders' Meetings.Leaders'Meetingsareseenastheclimax eventseach year.As for theabove?mentionedmeeting arrangements,each level isaccordinglymadeup ofmeetingscovering suchmechanismsas internalsessions among ASEAN Member States(AMS),10+1 sessionsmeaning meetings held between ASEAN and its dialoguepartners respectively,10+3 sessionsorknownasAPT sessions,EASsessionsand ARFsessions.

These seriesofmeetingsalwaysbeginw ith AMS internalsessions,to be followed by 10+1,10+3, EASand ARFsessions.Both EASand ARFare forum?likesessions.Thedifferencebetween the two is thatEAS isa"leaders?led strategic forum"focusing,based on itsoriginaldesign,on six priority areas of environmentand energy,education,finance,global health issues and pandemic diseases,natural disastermanagement,and ASEAN connectivity.ARF only convenes at senior officials'and foreign m inisters'levels,focusing on discussing security issues,establishing confidence?building measures, conducting preventive diplomacy,exploring ways to resolve conflictsand other relatedmatters.Under the ARF framework,countriesconcerned usually hold avariety ofsem inars,training coursesconcerning security issuesand exercises to dealwith non?traditionalsecurity issuesover the years.China is theone thathasundertaken themostprogramsandmade the largestcontribution among the ARFmembers.

Among theabove?mentionedmeetings,AMM istheonewithspecialsignificance.First,theAMM's agenda is themostwide?ranging and practical.Second,the AMM usually concludes themeeting with a JointCommuniqué,whichwould be issued after roundsof consultationsamong allmemberstates to show ASEAN'spositiononvarious issues.Third,unlike theAMM,othermeetingsincluding Leaders'Meetings willonly issueChairman'sStatementsasthemeeting documents.Therefore,the AMM JointCommuniqué isusually seen as themost formal and comprehensive outcome document.Fourth,the AMM Joint Communiquéisnotonly an importantbasis forall the related Chairman'sStatements,butalsoan important reference to the relevantdocumentsof the Leaders'Meetings tobeheld later.Since ASEAN emphasizes its centrality in regionalcooperation,and thecountriesoutside the regionhave repeatedlyexpressed theirsupport for ASEAN Centrality in regionalaffairs,the AMM JointCommuniquéisalso considered to be themost importantdocumentof all the East Asiameetings on cooperation.That's the reason why the AMM Joint Communiquéalwaysattractsextraordinary attention from the countriesbothwithinand outside the region.

The AMM this yearwas held on 24 July in Vientiane,Laos.The Foreign M inisters of ASEAN Member Stateshad discussions on w ide?ranging topics centering on the theme of"Turning Vision into Reality foraDynam ic ASEANCommunity".2016marks the firstyearsince theestablishmentof ASEAN Community.The Meeting recognized that ASEAN hadmade greatachievements in building ASEAN Political?Security Community,ASEANEconom ic Community and ASEANSocio?CulturalCommunity,butASEAN still faces considerable challenges.The titleof AMM JointCommuniquéthis year isalso" Turning Vision into Reality foraDynam ic ASEAN Community",breaking into9 parts,namely ASEAN Community Building,ASEANPolitical-Security Community,ASEANEconom icCommunity,ASEAN Socio?Cultural Community,ASEAN Connectivity,External Relations,ASEAN Regional Forum, Regional and International Issues,and the 50th AMM.Since the 49thAMM and related meetings are among themost important regionaldiplomatic eventsheld after thearbitration case,the South China Sea issue and the arbitration award received peculiar attention from western countries.Normally the Joint Communiquéshould be issued shortly after the AMM,but some external forces imposed enormous pressure onto ASEAN countries and countries like the Philippines and Vietnam made every effort to put wordings related toarbitration,large?scale constructionof islandsand reefsand othermattersinsinuating China into the JointCommuniqué,which wasopposed to by someother ASEAN countries and resulted in thedelay of issuance.Inorder to secureanearly ASEAN consensuson thewording related to the South China Sea issue,the Lao Foreign M inister Saluemxay followed the advice by the Indonesian Foreign M inisterRetnoand convened aspecialsessionof AMM.In themorningof25 July,the JointCommuniqué of the49thAMM was finally issued,w ithoutmentioning thearbitration caseon the South China Sea issue or its so?called award.

The South China Sea issue should be something only among the related claimants.Outof the four ASEAN claimantcountries,Vietnam and the Philippineshave significantdifferenceswith China,while Malaysia and Bruneiare comparativelymore low?key and rational in dealing w ith the South China Sea issue.The recentyearshasseen the issueheated up rapidlywhile the reasonsbehind arequitecomplicated. Ingeneral,firstand foremost,somecountriesm isjudged thesituationand attempted tounderm ineChina's sovereignty interests.They thought thatChinawould swallow thebitter fruits.Second,the politicians in some countrieswithin this region tried to take advantage of nationalism in order to shiftoff domestic problems and snatch politicalgains.Third,some countries outside the region are becom ingmore and more anxious aboutChina's rapid econom ic grow th,enhanced national strength and rising influence in the neighborhood.They tried to sow discord and drive wedges between China and its neighboring countries,especially ASEAN countriessoas toobstructChina?ASEAN friendly relationsand cooperation, and interferewith China's developmentprocess.Under such circumstances,the situation in the South China Seawashyped up since the US launched its so?called"Rebalance to Asia?Pacific Strategy".The countriesoriginally irrelevant to the South China Sea issuewerealldragged into this dispute.

If carefully reading through the AMM JointCommuniquéthis year,one could see that the Foreign M inistersof ASEAN countries have covered aw ide range of issuesand focused on how to further build ASEAN Community and strengthen practical cooperation among ASEAN Member States in political, econom ic,social,culturaland connectivity fields.The JointCommuniquéall in all includes9 parts and 192 paragraphs.The South China Sea issuewasmentioned in thesecond?to?the?lastpart"Regional and International Issues"and tookup8 paragraphs,accounting foronlyabout4%of the totalJointCommuni qué.Obviously,the South China Sea issuewas hyped by some countries,but itwas actually not the focus ofmost ASEAN countries.Sim ilar situation also appeared at China?ASEAN Foreign M inisters' Meeting(10+1)and APTForeignM inisters'Meeting(10+3)held on25 July.Mostof ASEANForeignM inisters stressed thatas the globaleconomy slowed down and regional countries faced challenges in improving people's livelihood,itshould be the top priority tomake thebestuseof the leading roleofChina's economy.When the Foreign M inisters of some individual countriesattempted to bring up the South ChinaSea issueatthemeeting,theThaiForeignM inisterDon clearly pointed outthatweshould putmore effortsonhow toachievesustainabledevelopment,instead ofwastingour timemeetingwith ForeignM inisterof such an importantcountry,China.

How ever,itwasunexpected that,as the AMM JointCommuniquérefrained from mentioning the arbitration award and other sensitive issues,such irrelevant countries to the South China Sea issueas the US,Japan and Australia became agitated and anxious.They w ere greatly dissatisfied that the AMM JointCommuniquédidn'tsupport the arbitration award and deeply disappointed that the JointCommuniquédidn't evenmention theword"arbitration".In this context,the USState Secretary and Japanese and Australian Foreign M inisters decided to throw in their gauntlets and came onto the stage.In the late night of 25 July,the US,Japan and Australia issued in haste a Tripartite Joint Statement to support the arbitration award and stress its legally binding nature.At the 6thEAS Foreign M inisters'M eeting on 26 July,the US State Secretary and Japanese and Australian Foreign M inisters continued to bring up topics concerning the arbitration.So people could clearly see that,on theonehand,countries in the region were determ ined to strengthen and deepen cooperation and looked forward to reducing tension in the South China Sea,while on the other hand,this Tripartite Joint Statementwas attempting to hype up the situation.On the one hand,countries in the region were reluctant to take sides on the arbitration issue and regarded it as a bilateral issue betw een China and the Philippines,while on the other hand,the Tripartite Joint Statement still insisted that the already controversial arbitration aw ard was legally binding. On the one hand,more than 70 countries in the world have expressed their understanding and support to China's justified stance in differentw ays,whileon theother hand,this Tripartite Joint Statement w as still trying to blame China straightforw ardly and obscurely.Therefore,this documentw as very ill?timed and w ent against the development of situation.It didn'tserve the effortsmade by regional countries tomaintain stability in the South China Sea,didn'tsuit thew ill of the peoples in the region to reduce the tension in the South China Sea,and didn'tgo along w ith a constructive role that the countries outside the region should have played.

Shortly after the issuanceof thearbitration award,somemedia reported that the USwasconducting quietdiplomacy to persuade the Philippines,Indonesia,Vietnam and otherAsian countriesnottouse the award and take aggressive actions.The reports said thatnews sources indicated that"some information was sent through the US embassies abroad and foreignm issions inWashington,and other information was conveyed directly to top officialsby Defense Secretary Ash Carter,State Secretary John Kerry and other US senior officials.This is a blanket call for quiet,not some attempt to rally the region against China,whichwould play intoa falsenarrative thattheUSis leadingacoalition to containChina".However, what the UShasbeen doing is fardifferent from theabove-mentioned reports.Both PresidentObamaand State Secretary Kerry have repeatedly claimed that the aw ard is"final and legally binding".At the Japan?USM ilitary Statesmen Forum held by a Tokyo?based think tank Rebuild Japan InitiativeFoundation(RJIF),Harry B.Harris,theUSCommanderof PacificCommand,requested thecountries including China to"respect the rightofarbitrationmechanisms provided forunder theUNCLOS".Since China refused to accept thearbitration award,Harris said that the peaceand prosperity of East Asia for decades are"the by?products of the rules?based order",and should not"subject to thewhims of any one country".Clearly,Harriswas implying thatChinawas theone thatdidn't follow the rulesand sought to manipulate the rule?making process.

However,the USofficials including Harris should be clear that ithasbeen their efforts for years to give rise to hyping of the South China Sea issue.As for the so?called"rules",in their view,only the UShas the finalsay aboutwhat the rulesareandwho couldmanipulate the rules.Since 2009,the US officials repeatedlymade irresponsible remarkson China's South China Sea policy and openly supported the countrieshaving disputeswith China.TheUSalwayspracticesdouble standardswhen itcomes to the South China Sea issue.While pointing fingersatChinaand criticizing China's construction effortson its own islandsand reefs,the US chose to ignore the fact that the Philippinesand Vietnam had illegally occupied allinall42 islandsand reefsin the South China Sea,and carried out land reclamationon relevant islandsand reefs starting from asearly as the1980s.The US rebalancing strategy did render illusions to some claimantcountries.They arew ishfully thinking that,w ith USenhanced backing,they could deal w ith the South China Sea issue through confrontation instead of consultation.The UShas becomeused to acting asa policeman or judgeon globalissues,and indulges itself inmaking rulesand dictatingways toexecute them.Chinaisastrong supporterofa rule?based internationalorder.However,theinternational ruleof law iswhat theentire international community follows,nota tool to beexploited by ahandfulof countries to pursue theirpoliticalagenda.

IV.Some Countries StillKeen on Fishing in Troubled Waters in the South China Sea

From the ASEAN Foreign M inisters'Meetingand relatedmeetings thisyear,we could sensea fierce confrontationbetween two forcesand two viewpoints.Some countrieswerenotw illing to see the tension relieved and keenly interested inmakingm ischief and driving wedges.The Japanese officialswere especially enthusiastic abouthyping up the South China Sea issue.Japanese PrimeM inister Shinzo Abe and Foreign M inister Fum io Kishida took every chance to hype up the South China Sea issue and the arbitrationaward.On12August,M r.Kishida finished his firstvisitto the Philippinesafter the issuance of award.As one of themain deliverables of his visit,Japan willgive away two patrol vessels to the Philippines.M r.Kishidaalso urged the Philippinenew government to stick to thearbitration award and not to hold bilateralnegotiationswith China.The Japanese Kyodo News Agency commented that Japan and the Philippines seemed to bewell coordinated in their positions,but the truth was that they differed in attitudes."Japanhopes thatthe Philippinescould continue to takeahard-linepolicy on the South China Seaissue,while thePhilippinenew governmentattachesgreatimportance to its relationswith China,and doesnotwantto intensify thedispute."NikkeiEnglishNewscommented thatif the Philippines isinclined to hold bilateral talkswith China,the ASEANm ightnotbeable tomarch in step anymore.It isobvious that Japan ismoreworried than any other country that the Philippinesm ight launch bilateralnegotiationsw ith China.Thisweird thinking is really hard to understand.

The USgovernmentandmediawon'tgive ita break thwarting the bilateral talksbetween the South China Sea claimant countriesand China.Before M r.Kishida's visit to the Philippines,the USState Secretary Kerry paid a brief visit to the Philippines right after the AMM and relatedmeetings this year. Secretary Kerry said thathesupported the talksbetween Chinaand the Philippineson theonehand,while healso stated thatallpartiesmustabideby theso?called award.TheUS journalistVijay Joshicommented thatall the ASEAN countries'positionsbecame clearatmeetings thisweek of Asia?Pacific and Southeast Asian nations,and the vaunted unity of the 10?member ASEAN ended in disarray because of China's musclesbulging.ProfessorWalterClemonsofHarvard University called onallASEAN countries to stand againstChina.Hesaid,"Beijing doesnotwish to faceaunited frontin SoutheastAsia.Instead,itlabors to divideand subdue.Dealing w ith these statesoneby one perm its Beijing to choose from itsquiverof soft and hard power,potential concessions and hammer blows.The ten ASEAN countries could resist and balance against an expansionist China."SomeWestern scholars turned against Cambodia,and criticized Cambodiaof splitting ASEAN by notsupporting the South China Seaaward.Bernd Schaefer w ith theWoodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars said that itwent"against the grain"to have Cambodia play such an importantrolewhen it isnota claimant in the disputeand theonly country in ASEAN yet to ratify the UNCLOS.

Theabove?mentioned commentsby theUSscholarsare fullofarroganceand backed by"the logic of agangster".Itseems thatonlywhen a country chooses to support thearbitrationaward,itcould beseen making the rightchoice;onlywhen ASEAN standsagainstChina,theUScan recognize theunity ofASEAN; onlywhen Chinaacceptsallof ASEAN's criticism,China could be seen notsplitting ASEAN.Itseems thata country hasno rightinexpressing itsopinionsif itdoesnot ratify theUNCLOS,while theUScould dowhatever itwants even that ithasnot ratified the UNCLOS.Itseems thatChina has been seen as an expansionist though it is comm itted to the good?neighborly peripheral diplomacy,while the US has becomea pacifist though ithasbeen looking for enemiesand takingm ilitary actionsallaround theworld. Theseare typicalmanifestationsof superiority com plex held by western civilizations,and the deep?rooted thinkingof theUSsuperpowerhegemony,whicheven roused somedoubts inwesternmedia.The Associated Press journalists reported from Vientiane on 26 July that"Diplomatswho attended the Laos meetings said itwas interesting to see that claimant countries appeared less enthusiastic than others in wanting to rebukeChina."The reportssaid,"Even thePhilippineswasnottoo forcefulinasking forstrong language in the ASEAN JointCommuniqué.It repeatedly pointed outthat theaward by arbitration panel was the result of its'unilateral'lawsuit,implying that ASEAN should not get involved."Malaysia's Foreign M inister didn'teven show up for themeetings.Ata latermeeting of ASEAN and Asia?Pacific nations,Bruneitook painsto praiseChina's leadership.Vietnam'sDeputy ForeignM inister LeHoaiTrung told the Associated Press thathiscountry prefersbilateraldialoguewith China.

Theanalysisof ProfessorPaulGevirtz from YaleUniversity canexplain theUSgovernment'sconflicting thinking.HepointedoutinhisarticleonWashington Postthatlaw cannotsolveallthedisputesin theSouth China Sea.The tribunalhasnoenforcementpowers,no police force,no sanctionssystem andnoability to levy fines，whichunderscore the limitsof law in resolving thesedisputesinpractice,aswellastheurgentneed tomoveaheadwithnegotiations,supportedby prudentpowerpolitics.Another fundamentallimitisthatthe tribunallacks legal power to resolve underlying and potentially explosive conflicts regarding sovereignty over land featuresand disputesovermaritimeboundaries.Andofcourseno court'sdecision can fullyaddressthecoregeopoliticalissues atstake:China'senormousnew capacities,widespreaduncertaintyaboutChina'sregionalintentions,andwhether Chinaand theUScan find termsof coexistence in the Asia-Pacific.Professor Gevirtz alsomade policy recommendations to the USgovernmentinhisarticle.TheUnited Statesand other countries should strongly supportthetribunal'sjudgmentasabindingdecision inwordsand deeds.ButtheObamaadministrationalsomust guard againstescalation.The possibility exists thata rebuked Chinaw ill launch new provocations,and a legally empowered Philippinesmightask the US to use itsmilitary to enforcewhat the tribunal cannotenforce, both ofwhichwould createmajor risks for theUS.Instead,the USshould encourage its Filipinoallies,with their legalvictory inhand,topursuedirectnegotiationswithChinaasthebestnextstep in looking forreal-world, peacefulsolutions.ChinashouldnotinsistthatthePhilippinesrenouncethearbitrationaward,and thePhilippines shouldnotinsistthatChinaacceptthe legalrightsawardedby the tribunal.Negotiationsshouldbeginwitha focus on lowering tensions,looking for trade?offsand pursuing common developmentprojects.Rules?based Codeof Conductbetween theASEAN nationsand Chinashould alsobea top priority.ProfessorGevirtz'sanalysiswillbe furthertestified by the futuredecisionmakingby theUSgovernment.

The complexity in the currentstrategic situation of EastAsia isunprecedented.The US is still theonly superpower,enjoying significantpolitical,military andeconomic influencein EastAsia.Chinahasbecome thesecond largesteconomy in theworld,thebiggest trading partner and important investmentsource to all ASEAN countries.Japanand Australiaareworriedaboutthereality thatChinaisrising tobethemostimportant politicaland econom icpower in EastAsia.Especially,Japan isgettingmoreandmoreanxiousaboutitsown declining influence.Some ASEAN countriesarealso doubtfulaboutChina's rise,and wish to counton the USbalancingChina'sinfluence.Atthesame time,thesecountriesalso try toenhance theirpracticalcooperation with China because they recognize China's leading role in the politicaland economic terms in this region. ASEAN countriesallknow that thearbitration hasnotchanged the reality,and the relevantdisputesstillhave to be resolved peacefully through diplomatic negotiations.The USofficialsarealso clear that thearbitration awardwon'thaveany actualeffect,and rather itwilldogreatharm to theUS?China relationsif theUS insists going too far.ButtheUSstillwishestostirmoretrouble todisruptthestability inChina'sneighborhood through using thearbitration caseand rousinganger in ASEAN countriesagainstChina.That'swhywesee from time to time the contradictionsbetween thewordsand actionsof theUSofficials.

When the arbitration award came out,the Chinese government did notmake strong reactions as speculated andhypedby somewesternmedia like"declaringanairdefenseidentificationzone(ADIZ)over the South China Sea,seizing controlofother islandsand reefs in Nansha Zhudao and withdrawing from theUNCLOS."The Straits Timescommented thatitwasbecause the Chinesegovernment insisted thatth e rulingwas justa"uselesspieceof paper"and China'srestraintalso reflected itsconfidence.Thiscomment mademe recallan interesting sceneafter the EASForeign M inisters'Meeting on 26 July.At theMeeting, Foreign M inisterWang Yiseverely criticized the Tripartite JointStatementby theUS,Japan and Australia on the South China Seaarbitration.When theMeetingwasadjourned,Secretary Kerry cameup toM inister Wang and explained that the Joint Statementonlywent to hisoffice desk at the lastm inuteand he hastilyapproved itw ithoutcarefulscrutinizing.Kerry said thathewas sorry about them isunderstanding that the documenthad caused.TheAustralian ForeignMinisterwas justsittingnexttoM inisterWangwhen Secretary Kerry talked to him.Itwassaid that the ideaof releasing such a JointStatementcame from Japan.

The South China Seaarbitration case isa litmus test to provewhether the countriesoutside the region are trulymeanttomaintain regionalpeaceordisturb thesituation in the South China Sea.Formostregional countries,their priority is how to preserve regional peace,stability and development.Some external forceswereexcited about theso?called arbitration award,which hasdisturbed thenormal regionalorder and underm ined theoverall interestsof regional countries,which started to invoke concern,resentment and even opposition from more andmore regional countries.Looking around theworld,there are still many places plagued with turmoil.EastAsia is the common home for all the regional countries,and it hasenjoyed ahard?won long period of stability and development.If this region falls into chaos,outside countries could just leavewhile the regional countriesw illhavenowhere to go and have to addressall the problems leftbehind.JustaswhatM inisterWang Yihassaid,relevantparties should stop this pointless politicalmanipulation and speculation,and cool down such feverish actionsas soon as possible so as to restore tranquility in the South China Seaand stability in the region.

·作者信息：徐步，中國駐東盟使團團長、特命全權大使。

·責任編輯：屠蘇

Observationson the South China Sea Issue through ASEAN Foreign M inisters'M eeting and Related M eetings

XU Bu

Such externalpowersas theUSand Japan racked theirm inds in hyping thearbitration caseon the South China Sea issue initiated by the Philippines,recklessly m isinterpreted the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS),incited on purpose the arbitration court to abuse its authority and evenmanipulated the composition of arbitration tribunalmembersoutof politicalmotives. The49th ASEAN ForeignM inisters'Meeting(AMM)and relatedmeetingswereheldagainstabackdrop featuring EastAsiahaunted by tension,fluid situation in the South China Seaand fresh publication of the award ofarbitration case.Some forcesoutside the regionattempted tomakeChina the targetofaccusations. More andmore countries in our region aregettingworried that the regionalsituationwould be kidnapped by the South China Sea issue and they are also expressing the resentment against these external powers blindly cooking up the South China Sea issue.

AMM and related meetings;the arbitration case on the South China Sea issue; China?ASEAN relations;Vientiane?Laos PDR