Promote the Construction of an International Security Order in a Changing World

Tang Yongsheng

Vice President and Professor of College of National Security,

PLA National Defense University

The COVID-19 pandemic and its worldwide rampage have brought about a major crisis in global politics. The pandemic outbreak situation not only constitutes an extreme manifestation of the world's changing situation, but also has a comprehensive and far-reaching impact on the world's changing situation. This pandemic is affecting every corner of the world with its unimaginable permeability and diffusion. Major changes are and will take place continuously in global politics, involving almost all aspects, such as the change and adjustment of power structure and relations among major powers, the reconstruction of international order and global governance, the development and innovation of governance model and security concept. Today's world change is no longer a simple cyclical cycle, but indicates that the structure and nature of the international system are undergoing important and profound changes. Generally speaking, the international system based on capital expansion is saturated or overloaded. The corresponding institutional arrangements and order norms are unable to provide sustained and effective protection for the world's extensive peace, development and prosperity. The international system is facing fundamental changes, and the pandemic outbreak situation is promoting the global governance in a reverse way.

On the one hand, the original logic supporting the operation of the existing international system is still playing a role, including capital expansion, hegemony protection, power struggle, geopolitical game-play, etc., but its development is subject to increasing constraints, showing an obvious decline, and even reaching a certain limit. Particularly, the U.S. military hegemony and financial hegemony are not as effective as they used to be, and this decline is a main criterion for concluding whether the international system is saturated or overloaded. On the other hand, some factors that were originally basic or not obvious and easy to be ignored are playing an increasingly important role. These increasing factors include breakthrough progress in science and technology, power transfer caused by information diffusion, the increasing non-state players and their influence, as well as the highlighted transnational threat and global challenge including the pandemic, etc. The logic and factors of these two aspects are overlapped to play a comprehensive role, and the systematic effect is becoming increasingly prominent, which has a profound impact on the historical process of the world. The development of block chain technology not only promotes the leap of productivity, but also brings about the progress of production relations, while the impact of the Novel Coronavirus pandemic on the international system is undoubtedly beyond the scope and intensity predicted by most people.

At least in a certain period of time, the uncertainty in the evolution of the world situation may also show an increasing trend. The original institutional arrangements are no longer so effective, and the new order norms cannot be produced in the short term. The impact of the pandemic outbreak highlights this rheology. However, the world change has begun. After all, the international system will continue to evolve, and the chaotic world will eventually move into an orderly orbit. If the situation is uncertain, then the future will provide opportunities for creativity and lead us to a better world. The pandemic situation tests the governance capacity of a country. In the face of world changes, various countries generally encounter all kinds of difficulties and confusion. The reform and innovation of development mode and governance system have become the core elements to win international competition, and the improvement of national governance capacity will inevitably produce spillover effect, which provides the necessary foundation and driving force for the reform and innovation of global governance. Confronting such complex problems as pandemic prevention and control, the ability of national governance is undergoing a severe test, of which how to deal with the relationship between centralization and decentralization, common cognition and independent coordination is a major proposition for every major country

In recent years, people have clearly witnessed the setbacks of globalization，which fragile side is concentrated in the pandemic outbreak, and some countries are too busy with their own affairs and short of will to organize and participate in efficient international cooperation. In this context, the international security order is seriously weakened, and the security situation in some regions gets turbulent, with great potential risks. The Trump administration’s strengthening the "America First" policy is greatly squeezing the space for international security cooperation, resulting in the continuous heating-up of competition among major powers and resurgence of zero-sum game. Major countries pay attention to improving their strategic capabilities, increasing investment in military, economic, scientific and technological fields, and striving to take the lead in the so-called new round of power contention.

Currently, with the increase of global instable factors, international security governance is meeting with many difficulties. The reason is not only the challenges brought by the diversification and complexity of security issues, but also the continuous reduction of long-term international responsibilities undertaken by the United States in recent years, resulting in the imbalance between supply and demand of global governance. The United States has consecutively withdrawn from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty, and the security structure such as international arms control mechanism and others are seriously impacted. There are still variables whether the United States and Russia can renew the New START treaty, and the foundation of global strategic stability is in danger of disappearing. In the face of lack of global governance and structuring of international security order, the international community, especially the major powers, must bear the necessary responsibility, strengthen coordination and cooperation, and effectively prevent the occurrence of major crises and security risks.

Despite the emergence of chaos, the deepening contradictions and the increasing problems in the world's changing situation, people's yearning for a better life and their demand for peace have not decreased, but become clearer and more significant. To deal with transnational and global threats and challenges requires the joint efforts of all countries to actively promote the construction and improvement of the international security order, only by doing so can sustainable security and prosperity in the world be achieved. The zero-sum game thinking of "either this or that" and "winner-take-all" is outdated, and the old way of alliance confrontation and military hegemony is doomed to failure. It is impossible for the world to return to the state of seclusion and separation. To solve the major security and development problems faced by all countries through de-globalization or counter-globalization is tantamount to seeking fish out of a tree. There is no way out for unilateralism. The purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations are still the fundamental principles for dealing with international relations and an important cornerstone for the stability of the international order. To respond to transnational and global threats, we can only rely on the international community's broader cooperation and find positive ways of reform and effective solutions to the problems in view of the defects of the existing security mechanism.

In the changing world situation, the nature of international relations is undergoing major changes, with competition inseparable from cooperation, and cooperation full of competition. The interests of various countries are more complex and intertwined, which will be fully revealed in the structuring of international security order. Historical development will further prove that no country can have the historical conditions to dominate international affairs and monopolize development opportunities. Hegemony is unpopular and will hurt itself. Presently, an important task is to strive to promote the development of international arms control and create conditions for maintaining basic global strategic stability and effectively controlling the arms race and war risks of major powers. Major countries should carry out active dialogue and explore crisis coordination mechanisms to prevent and control differences and reduce the risk of miscalculation. The frequent conflicts in the past repeatedly warn that only by actively building peace can the future of the world be full of hope. Only by replacing conflicts with dialogue, organically combining one’s own country interests with the common interests of all countries, gathering broad consensus, and actively promoting security cooperation, can all other countries find effective ways and means to resolve disputes and eliminate wars, and achieve sustainable development and sustainable security. Promoting the construction and innovation of the international security order and realizing a beneficial balance between the institutional supply and security needs constitute a potential development direction for international cooperation.