黃昀昀

2021年3月29日，馬來西亞和新加坡最終仍未能就新馬高鐵（也稱新隆高鐵）計(jì)劃達(dá)成一致，該項(xiàng)目在歷經(jīng)馬來西亞三任總理更迭、兩度推遲后，以馬來西亞向新加坡賠付約1.028億新加坡元（約合5.013億元人民幣）正式告終。

那么，兩國專家、民眾對(duì)這樣的結(jié)果是何態(tài)度，該計(jì)劃為何取消，中國會(huì)受到什么影響呢？

新馬達(dá)成“全面和最終解決方案”

2021年1月1日，新加坡和馬來西亞政府發(fā)布聯(lián)合聲明，宣布了2021年首個(gè)重磅消息：協(xié)商、籌備多年的新馬高鐵項(xiàng)目正式“夭折”。關(guān)于該高鐵的種種愿望皆化作泡影。3月29日，新馬再次發(fā)表聯(lián)合聲明指出，兩國在馬來西亞政府核實(shí)費(fèi)用支出情況后，通過友好協(xié)議的方式解決了賠償問題，兩國就高鐵雙邊協(xié)議終止達(dá)成“全面和最終解決方案”。

這么些年來，新馬高鐵走過了怎樣的歷程？該項(xiàng)目于2010年，由馬來西亞時(shí)任總理納吉布為促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型提出。2016年，馬新兩國正式簽署雙邊協(xié)定，該項(xiàng)目正式拍板定案。按照設(shè)計(jì)方案，該高鐵連接馬來西亞吉隆坡與新加坡，全長350公里，極大便利了民眾的“雙城生活”，單程用時(shí)由4小時(shí)縮短至90分鐘。

據(jù)日本亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所學(xué)者的測算，雖然該項(xiàng)目對(duì)兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶動(dòng)的直接作用不明顯，但高鐵本身將在旅游業(yè)、供應(yīng)鏈和零售業(yè)等領(lǐng)域創(chuàng)造就業(yè)和增長機(jī)會(huì)。新馬雙方的勞動(dòng)力市場的匹配度也會(huì)進(jìn)一步提高。

而2018年，馬來西亞前總理馬哈蒂爾上任數(shù)月后，就以財(cái)政吃緊為由，提出推遲這一高鐵項(xiàng)目。即使新加坡持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度，但最終雙方還是同意將該項(xiàng)目延遲至2020年5月31日再啟動(dòng)。這是該項(xiàng)目第一次延期。

2020年初，馬來西亞政壇風(fēng)云變幻，穆希丁領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的國民聯(lián)盟政府上臺(tái)。當(dāng)年5月31日，馬新雙方同意高鐵項(xiàng)目第二次，也是最后一次延期至2020年12月31日。11月，馬來西亞積極表態(tài)，稱該國已經(jīng)對(duì)項(xiàng)目提出修改意見，正在與新加坡政府討論。但雙方還是未能在此期限前達(dá)成一致，2021年1月1日，馬新兩國宣布新馬高鐵項(xiàng)目終結(jié)。

那么，該計(jì)劃告吹以后，直接受益方——民眾，作何表態(tài)？吉隆坡人邱漢偉說：“我每次開車往返兩地得花上8小時(shí)。我其實(shí)很向往能搭乘高鐵在一天內(nèi)往返兩地開會(huì)?！痹谒磥?，少了這條高鐵，有吉隆坡中央商業(yè)區(qū)之稱的敦拉薩國際貿(mào)易中心也將失去它的光環(huán)，“建造新隆高鐵的其中一項(xiàng)計(jì)劃就是連接吉隆坡敦拉薩國際貿(mào)易中心和新加坡的裕廊區(qū)這兩座商業(yè)城。如今，這個(gè)計(jì)劃將無法落實(shí)?！?/p>

此外，于新加坡而言，該項(xiàng)目的取消還使新加坡錯(cuò)失通過陸路聯(lián)通亞洲其他地區(qū)的機(jī)會(huì)?！霸谛埋R高鐵計(jì)劃下，我國原本是終點(diǎn)站，這樣一來乘客可以搭乘高鐵從新加坡直達(dá)馬來西亞，然后可以前往泰國等亞洲其他地區(qū)。以更長遠(yuǎn)和宏觀的角度來說，我國已經(jīng)失去了這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)。尤其在現(xiàn)在的新冠肺炎疫情之下，搭火車、高鐵等似乎比飛行更‘安全?！毙录悠滦萝S社科大學(xué)商學(xué)院副教授特斯拉更是直言這樣的結(jié)果對(duì)兩國而言，是“雙輸局面”。

新馬高鐵黃了的背后原因

對(duì)于該項(xiàng)目取消的原因，馬來西亞與新加坡各持不同的說法。馬來西亞總理府經(jīng)濟(jì)事務(wù)部長穆斯塔法于2021年1月2日發(fā)表聲明說，馬方曾對(duì)新馬高鐵項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃提出了多項(xiàng)修改建議，包括項(xiàng)目結(jié)構(gòu)、路線和車站設(shè)計(jì)等，目的是希望能在融資選擇上更靈活;也希望通過高鐵項(xiàng)目使馬經(jīng)濟(jì)在新冠肺炎疫情后更快地復(fù)蘇。馬新就各自的立場討論了多次，未能達(dá)成一致。

對(duì)此，馬來西亞媒體稱，在兩國談判期間，馬方要求將該高鐵延長至吉隆坡附近的國際機(jī)場，但新加坡拒絕這一想法，原因是這會(huì)對(duì)新加坡作為航空中心的地位構(gòu)成威脅。

同是1月2日，新加坡交通部長王乙康指出，新馬兩國協(xié)商破裂主因在于雙方對(duì)高鐵資產(chǎn)管理公司的安排有重大分歧。

由于新馬兩國都沒有運(yùn)營高鐵的專業(yè)知識(shí)和經(jīng)驗(yàn)，雙方同意通過公開、透明的國際招標(biāo)，委任一家最優(yōu)秀的業(yè)者擔(dān)任資產(chǎn)管理公司，以確?？缇掣哞F服務(wù)能得到優(yōu)先照顧。高鐵資產(chǎn)管理公司須同時(shí)向兩國政府負(fù)責(zé)。根據(jù)規(guī)劃，高鐵資產(chǎn)管理公司的責(zé)任，包括負(fù)責(zé)新馬高鐵列車及鐵路設(shè)備的設(shè)計(jì)、建造、融資和維修等工作。

王乙康說：“對(duì)新加坡來說，資產(chǎn)管理公司是高鐵項(xiàng)目的核心，有資產(chǎn)管理公司才能確保兩國利益都得到保障，并有助于減少兩國未來數(shù)十年運(yùn)營高鐵項(xiàng)目的漫長過程中，出現(xiàn)分歧和糾紛的可能性。因此，新加坡告知馬來西亞，剔除資產(chǎn)管理公司是在根本上背離高鐵協(xié)定，我方不能接受。馬方于是決定讓高鐵協(xié)定終止?！?/p>

如果說上述原因?qū)儆陧?xiàng)目取消的導(dǎo)火索，那么更深層的原因或許在于新冠肺炎疫情對(duì)馬來西亞經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的嚴(yán)重沖擊。2020年6月，世界銀行將馬來西亞2020年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下調(diào)至-3.1%。8月，馬來西亞議會(huì)通過決議，允許該國新政府的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)提升至占GDP的60%，以緩解疫情對(duì)企業(yè)的沖擊。此外，國際油價(jià)的下跌也是導(dǎo)致馬來西亞財(cái)政緊縮的一個(gè)重要原因。

但拋開該項(xiàng)目取消的負(fù)面影響，兩國還是將謀求雙邊關(guān)系的長遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展作為他們未來合作的方向。新馬政府在1月1日的聯(lián)合聲明中強(qiáng)調(diào)：“兩國仍將致力于維持良好雙邊關(guān)系，并在加強(qiáng)兩國互聯(lián)互通等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域密切合作?！?/p>

新馬高鐵沒了，對(duì)中國有何影響和啟示？

雖然新馬高鐵不是由中國企業(yè)承建的項(xiàng)目，但該項(xiàng)目與中國倡導(dǎo)的“泛亞鐵路”息息相關(guān)。按原計(jì)劃，該鐵路可使云南昆明成為中國陸路進(jìn)入東南亞的重要入口，通過即將通車的中老鐵路、在建的中泰鐵路，經(jīng)老撾、泰國延伸至馬來西亞和新加坡，實(shí)現(xiàn)東南亞地區(qū)和中國更好的互聯(lián)互通，將給鐵路沿線地區(qū)帶來巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。

“該項(xiàng)目取消后，可能對(duì)總投資約374億元人民幣的中老鐵路產(chǎn)生復(fù)雜的影響?！敝袊缈圃簛喬c全球戰(zhàn)略研究院研究員鐘飛騰援引其他論者的話稱，如果中老鐵路不能延伸至東南亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)中心，那么它的價(jià)值會(huì)受到一定影響。

另一方面，從此次馬來西亞對(duì)新馬高鐵建設(shè)的表態(tài)中，我們不難看出馬方對(duì)融資靈活性的訴求，以及新冠肺炎疫情沖擊下，馬來西亞政府面對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的巨大壓力。基于此，短期內(nèi)，馬來西亞政府對(duì)大型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的支持力度或有所減弱，即便推動(dòng)大型項(xiàng)目投資，也可能更傾向于在項(xiàng)目中看到本土企業(yè)的身影。這對(duì)于包括中國投資者在內(nèi)的外國投資人來說，都是需要考量的問題。

在新冠肺炎疫情依然此起彼伏的東南亞，復(fù)蘇經(jīng)濟(jì)的壓力顯然不止于馬來西亞。在后疫情時(shí)代與東盟國家開展跨境合作，投資者們或許需要在投資領(lǐng)域、融資渠道、合作模式上探索更多新的可能。

Southeast Asias electric vehicle? （EV） and battery industries are quickly gaining momentum， as manufacturers in Thailand and Vietnam scale up production and high-profile foreign investors like Tesla and Nissan show increasing interest.

As Southeast Asia looks for ways to recover from the economic impacts of the COVID-19， the regions EV and battery industry appears poised for growth. Foreign manufacturers from China and the US have moved to enter the market and invest in Indonesia， Thailand and elsewhere， while domestic companies in Thailand and Vietnam have launched new manufacturing pushes

Foreign investment in EVs continues despite pandemic

In Indonesia， the EV and battery industry is now the major source of foreign investment， reportedly accounting for 70% in 2020. Investors are attracted in large part because Indonesia has the largest nickel reserves in the world — 23% of global reserves. Nickel is necessary for EV battery production and the Indonesian government reinstated its ban on exporting nickel ore in January 2020.

Indonesias highest profile proposal has come from Tesla. The Indonesian government hasnt released details on Teslas proposal but has sought the companys support to develop its EV industry. “If they only want to buy raw materials， we are not interested. This （proposal） is beyond just taking the raw material，” said Septian Hario Seto， Indonesias Deputy Head of Investment and Mining Coordination.

In December， Indonesia also signed a US$ 9.8 billion investment deal with South Koreas LG Group to produce lithium batteries for vehicles. The deal is one of the worlds first efforts to integrate mineral mining， processing and battery production. Indonesia also has similar plans with Chinas Contemporary Amperex Technology? Co.， Limited （CATL）. In addition to exports， the first batches of batteries will be put to use in Jakartas buses， as the city works to shift to EVs by 2027.

In Thailand， Nissan has invested heavily in plans to make the country a hub for EV manufacturing. The Japanese manufacturer is also developing technology that allows electric cars to run without the need to plug in to a charging station. As Southeast Asian countries have little to no EV infrastructure， this could have a major impact on the region.

Vietnamese firm to lead on EV exports

Vietnam faces the same lack of charging stations as the rest of the region， but megacorporation Vingroup says its subsidiary VinFast will begin exporting EVs in November 2021. Vingroup is founded by Vietnams richest man， Pham Nhat Vuong， and is a key source of momentum behind the countrys EV industry.

VinFast announced in January that it will manufacture three electric sports utility vehicle （SUV） models for export to North America and Europe. All three will reportedly use artificial intelligence technology and be at least partially self-driving.

“This is a solid foundation for VinFast to reach its global vision and become a popular high-tech EV company in the world， as well as develop green transport ecosystem and reducing emissions，” Vingroup said in a press release.

VinFast first began production in 2019 but struggled to sell its EVs in Vietnam， in part because the country has very few charging stations. As the company turns towards international markets， it has focused on cars rather than its earlier models of electric motorbikes.

Chinese auto firm says Thai expansion will include EVs

Thailand hopes to convert 30% of its car production， or around 750，000 units， to EV by 2030. The investments from GWM in Nissan will help it meet its goal. But for now， the number of EVs on the road in Thailand remains very low， at just over 2，000 vehicles in 2020. According to many analysts， Thailands goals around EVs still fall far short of whats needed to have a significant positive environmental impact or to shift the countrys dependence on fossil fuels.

Though few consumers have made the switch， Thai companies have already begun producing tuk tuks and ferries. The city of Chiang Mai has seen electric tuk tuks for at least two years now and domestic startup Power Up TukTuk is building electric three-wheelers for people with mobility issues.

In the countrys south， fossil fuel energy conglomerate Banpu has started to push electric ferries in Phuket and nearby areas. The ferries are part of a collaboration with Sakun C， a subsidiary of Choknamchai Group， one of the regions automotive heavyweights and the local partner of Honda， Toyota and Nissan.

The country EV push also has the backing of its national power company， the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand （EGAT）. “The government set a goal that by 2037， there should be around 2.5 million EV cars and in order to get to that point， the government must support the building of infrastructure， the change of mindsets and making people trust that if they use EVs， it will be safe，” said Somchai Chokmaviroj， director of EGATs Research and Innovation Division.

Mass adoption of EVs depends on targeted， equitable government policies

In the US， car manufacturers and the government have so far failed to make EVs affordable enough to cater to the majority of the population. Being eco-friendly requires significant disposable income. In most Southeast Asian markets， the solution likely lies in mass rollout of electric motorbikes.

According to Pew Research data from 2014， over 80% of households in Indonesia， Malaysia， Thailand and Vietnam own a motorcycle. When the same survey looked at car ownership， the picture was dramatically different： while over 80% of Malaysian households owned a car， that figure dropped to 51% in Thailand， 4% in Indonesia and 2% in Vietnam.

The UN Environment Programme is working with the private sector in Malaysia， the Philippines， Singapore and Thailand to find ways to promote a transition to electric motorbikes. Thailand also has plans to launch a trade-in scheme， though the plan is currently on hold.

Southeast Asia will likely continue to see its EV and battery industries grow as the region rides out the economic impacts of the COVID-19.

· Source： ASEAN Today