□ 文/ Pathom Sangwongwanich

東盟成立50載，驕人成績載青史

□ 文/ Pathom Sangwongwanich

2017年8月將迎來東盟成立50年周年慶典。有位資深學(xué)者這樣評(píng)價(jià)：素有“和平催化劑”之稱的東盟，在世界大國激烈競爭中，為和平穩(wěn)定提供了平臺(tái)。

1967年東盟正式啟動(dòng)之初，人們甚至懷疑東盟至多只能維持3年。當(dāng)時(shí)，政局動(dòng)蕩不穩(wěn)，出現(xiàn)馬來西亞、新加坡、泰國、印尼以及菲律賓5個(gè)創(chuàng)始成員國之間互不信任、“馬印對(duì)抗”、新加坡與馬來西亞聯(lián)邦的分離、馬來西亞與菲律賓之間的北婆羅洲爭端以及越南戰(zhàn)爭等問題。

新加坡國立大學(xué)李光耀公共政策學(xué)院院長、公共政策教授馬凱碩（Kishore Mahbubani）稱，東盟的成功是多方面因素綜合作用的結(jié)果。首先，憂患意識(shí)讓東盟團(tuán)結(jié)起來。其次，幸運(yùn)的是，東盟國家早期有李光耀、馬哈蒂爾·穆罕默德和蘇哈托等杰出領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的正確領(lǐng)導(dǎo)。再者，高爾夫球也有些許功勞，許多東盟政企領(lǐng)導(dǎo)都是在高爾夫球場上思考問題的對(duì)策、共敘發(fā)展大計(jì)。

“幾乎沒有東南亞人能想到可以在自家門口創(chuàng)造世界奇跡，取得驕人成績?！彼f：“世界上再也找不到第二個(gè)像東南亞這般多樣化的地區(qū)了。作為世界上一個(gè)最為多樣化的地區(qū)，東盟能夠和平發(fā)展，實(shí)在令人難以相信。”

同時(shí)，馬凱碩說，東盟的前景十分可觀。這個(gè)由10個(gè)成員國結(jié)合而成的共同體， 現(xiàn)已成為世界第七大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，預(yù)計(jì)到2050年成為世界第四大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

雖然不能確定東盟未來能否具有像今天這樣的恢復(fù)彈力，但是從東盟獨(dú)特的發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)來看， 東盟是一個(gè)具有內(nèi)在稟賦和智慧的組織。過去，東盟發(fā)展緩慢，步履蹣跚；如今，已實(shí)現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展，區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)空前繁榮。

“東盟的智慧在于： 面對(duì)分歧，不是一味地消除， 而是能夠包容、共存分歧。另外，東盟國家的實(shí)用主義文化深厚。”馬凱碩引用東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)作為例子說明。

然而， 他補(bǔ)充道，對(duì)東盟期望不應(yīng)太高，不要期待能立即創(chuàng)出輝煌成績，東盟從來都不是一個(gè)完美的組織，今天的成績已然是一個(gè)奇跡。

馬來西亞第一大金融集團(tuán)Maybank首席執(zhí)行官約翰·莊（John Chong）稱，東盟地區(qū)擁有和諧的政治社會(huì)環(huán)境，東盟各國之間的出口貿(mào)易恢復(fù)，該地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長也比較樂觀。

金融集團(tuán)Maybank總部設(shè)在馬來西亞，期望馬來西亞、新加坡、印尼、菲律賓、泰國及越南六個(gè)東盟國家，能將商品價(jià)格提升4.8%，同時(shí)提高電子產(chǎn)品的全球需求。

約翰·莊稱，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)將成為東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要推動(dòng)力。未來5年內(nèi)，需完成價(jià)值過百億美元的項(xiàng)目。

他認(rèn)為東盟各國的一體化已經(jīng)進(jìn)一步得到發(fā)展，區(qū)域內(nèi)的直接對(duì)外投資增加足以說明這一點(diǎn)。

“我更愿意看到東盟國家之間貿(mào)易合作擴(kuò)大。2016年，東盟國家之間的貿(mào)易占總貿(mào)易額大約24～25%，2017年仍保持著相同的水平。合作不僅局限于是各國政府，還應(yīng)包括東盟各國的私營企業(yè)?！?約翰·莊說道。

“我們需要增加?xùn)|盟跨國公司，也就是說， 我們不僅要在自己家里做生意，還要和其他東盟國家做生意?！?/p>

約翰·莊看到馬來西亞、新加坡、泰國及菲律賓的企業(yè)已經(jīng)將業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)大到其他東盟國家，并與這些國家的企業(yè)進(jìn)行合作。

他說：“我們應(yīng)該鼓勵(lì)各種規(guī)模的企業(yè)擴(kuò)大與其他東盟國家的合作，但小公司以除外，因?yàn)樾」具€需要先建立自己的市場。但是大中型企業(yè)在其他東盟國家已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)商機(jī), 并逐漸開設(shè)分公司，這些大中型企業(yè)在其他東盟國家都有著不同程度的發(fā)展?！?/p>

目前，貿(mào)易保護(hù)政策日益增加，出于對(duì)當(dāng)前形勢(shì)的擔(dān)憂，東盟勢(shì)必要重點(diǎn)關(guān)注“橋梁建設(shè)”（東盟各國之間貿(mào)易互通），加強(qiáng)一體化。

據(jù)約翰·莊介紹，2015年，東盟各國之間貿(mào)易占地區(qū)貿(mào)易總額大約24%，自2007年來，該數(shù)據(jù)一直維持在這個(gè)水平，相對(duì)不變。

“我們認(rèn)為，通過加強(qiáng)東盟各國之間的貿(mào)易往來以及區(qū)域內(nèi)的互聯(lián)互通，東盟對(duì)地緣政治阻力的抗力能得到進(jìn)一步提升。”

·毛譽(yù)曄 編譯

·來源：《曼谷郵報(bào)》

·本文所持立場不代表本刊觀點(diǎn)

As ASEAN prepares to celebrate its 50thanniversary this August, the regional organization is deemed a “catalyst for peace” as it provides a platform for stability amid the tug of war between major world powers, says a veteran academic.

“My message to both the US and China is think of your long-term interest and it is in your long-term interest to see ASEAN hold together rather than break apart,” said Kishore Mahbubani, dean and professor of public policy in the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore.

“It is very important for the business community of the region to understand that if you want this region to continue to grow and prosper, you have to keep ASEAN together.”

At its inception in 1967, there were doubts that ASEAN could last more than three years given the challenges prevailing at the time. They included how the five founding members— Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines —distrusted each other, “Konfrontasi”between Malaysia and Indonesia, separation of Singapore from federal Malaysia, the North Borneo dispute between Malaysia and the Philippines, and the Vietnam War.

But ASEAN’s success has been a combination of factors, said Dr. Mahbubani. First, genuine fear is what holds the organization together. Second, luck played a role as there were capable regional leaders in theearly days such as Lee Kuan Yew, Mahathir Mohamad and Suharto. Even golf gets some credit, given the shared enthusiasm of so many political and corporate leaders in the region to hash out ideas on the links.

“It is shocking how few people in Southeast Asia appreciate the fact that one of the world’s greatest miracles is right here on our doorstep,” he said.

“You can go anywhere in the world —there is no corner of the world which is as diverse as Southeast Asia. To take the most diverse region on Planet Earth and make it peaceful is quite amazing. That is why ASEAN is a miracle.”

At the same time, the prospects for ASEAN’s future are amazing as the 10 members combined form the seventh largest economy in the world, which will become the fourth largest by 2050, said Dr. Mahbubani.

Although no one can tell whether ASEAN will be as resilient in the future as it is now, the organization has already developed one of its“hidden inner geniuses” through its distinctive development structure, he said. ASEAN’s development was slow “l(fā)ike a crab” in the past, he said, but progress suddenly leapfrogged, pushing forward regional economic prosperity like never before.

“The genius of ASEAN is that we do not try to resolve differences, [but] we live with them and we manage them on a daily basis. There is a very deep culture of pragmatism developed among the ASEAN countries,” said Dr. Mahbubani, citing the ASEAN free trade area as an example.

ASEAN will, however, always be an imperfect organization as one should not expect the bloc to do something brilliant immediately, he said. “Never seek ASEAN’s perfection. It achieved so far is a miracle.”

While there is hope for more political and social harmony, optimism for improved economic growth prevails, mainly due to the export recovery among ASEAN countries, said John Chong, CEO of Maybank Kim Eng Group.

The Malaysia-based financial services group expects the ASEAN-6 economies — Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam — to expand by 4.8% this commodity prices and improved global demand for electronic goods.

Infrastructure development is expected to be the main driver of economic growth for ASEAN, with tens of billions of dollars of projects to be developed over the next fve years, he said.

Mr. Chong believes integration among ASEAN economies has improved, as reflected in the increase in intraregional foreign direct investment in recent years.

“What I would like to see more is [greater] intraregional trade. It was around 24-25% (of total trade) last year and it is about the same level [this year]. It is not just about the governments, but it also has to be about the private sector and corporates as well,” he said.

“We need to step up to be ASEAN multinationals in a sense that we need to do business not just in our home countries, but also in countries within ASEAN.”

Mr. Chong has seen large corporate entities from Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines expanding into other regional countries and doing business with fellow ASEAN companies.

“We are seeing increasingly all levels of corporates, [but] I would not say the very small [companies] because they obviously still need to build their own markets. But definitely, the large corporates and mid-sized ones are branching out because there are obvious opportunities everywhere and, you know, in ASEAN every market has a different level of market development,” said Mr. Chong.

Amid concerns of increasing trade protionist policies, it is imperative that ASEAN continue to focus on “building bridges” and deepening integration, he continued.

In 2015, intra-ASEAN trade made up approximately 24% of the region’s total trade in goods and this number has remained relatively unchanged since 2007, said Mr. Chong.

“We strongly believe that ASEAN’s resilience to geopolitical headwinds can be further bolstered by improving intra-ASEAN trade and strengthening connectivity within the region.”

· Source: The Bangkok Post

At 50, ASEAN Urged to Take Pride in Achievements

By PATHOM SANGWONGWANICH