沈秋萍

華盛頓大學(xué)研究人員發(fā)表在《柳葉刀》的研究報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，全球人口將在2064年達(dá)到頂峰，約為97.億，2100年將降至約88億。研究人員稱，這將是第一次由生育率下降而導(dǎo)致的全球人口下降。

According to a new study published in the Lancetjour- nal， the world population will decline for the first time in the next century.

The world’s population is currently estimated to be at 7.8 billion people. According to the estimate， the global pop- ulation would peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064. Then it will fall to 8.79 billion in 2100.

Due to low birth rates and aging populations， up to 23 countries， including Japan， Thailand， Italy， Spain， Portugal， South Korea， and others， might see their populations fall by more than 50%.

China is the world’s most populated country. But it will see its population drop from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100.

The study noted the global trend of population decline. But it also predicted that some sections of the world would witness an increase in population.

This encompasses North Africa， the Middle East， and Sub-Saharan Africa. It is likely to triple in population from 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100 over the century.

According to the? study， the population? of India， the world’s? second- most populous? country， will be? approxi- mately 1.09 billion in 2100.

發(fā)表在《柳葉刀》雜志上的一項(xiàng)新研究稱，下個(gè)世紀(jì)全球人口將首次下降。

目前，全球人口預(yù)計(jì)為78億。據(jù)估計(jì)，全球人口將在2064年達(dá)到峰值，約為97億。然后在2100年下降到87.9億。

由于低出生率和人口老齡化，包括日本、泰國(guó)、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、韓國(guó)等在內(nèi)的多達(dá)23個(gè)國(guó)家的人口可能會(huì)下降50%以上。

中國(guó)是目前世界上人口最多的國(guó)家，但到2100年，中國(guó)的人口將從2017年的14億下降到7.32億。

這項(xiàng)研究指出了全球人口下降的趨勢(shì)，也預(yù)測(cè)世界某些地區(qū)將出現(xiàn)人口增長(zhǎng)。

人口增長(zhǎng)地區(qū)包括北非、中東和撒哈拉以南非洲。在本世紀(jì)內(nèi)，這些地區(qū)的人口可能會(huì)從2017年的10.3億增加到2100年的30.7億。

該研究指出，2100年，世界第二人口大國(guó)印度的人口將為10.9億左右。

World population decline driven by fertility decline.

Lead study author and Professor of Global Health at the? Institute? for? Health? Metrics? and? Evaluation （IHME）， Stein? Emil? Vollset，? told? IFLScience， “The? last? time? that global population declined was in the mid 14th century， due to the Black Plague. If our forecast is correct， it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline， as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine.”

The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime. The worldwide total fertility rate is likely to steadily drop， from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100. It is significantly below the minimum rate （2.1 live births per woman） necessary to maintain population levels， he added.

生育率下降導(dǎo)致全球人口下降。

該研究主要作者、華盛頓大學(xué)健康指標(biāo)與評(píng)估研究所全球健康教授斯坦因·埃米爾·沃爾賽特告訴IFLScience 網(wǎng)站：“全球人口上一次下降是在14世紀(jì)中葉，是黑死病導(dǎo)致的。如果我們的預(yù)測(cè)正確，這將是第一次由生育率下降而導(dǎo)致人口下降，而不是由于疫情或饑荒等原因?！?/p>

生育率是女性一生中平均生育子女的數(shù)量。全球總生育率可能會(huì)穩(wěn)步下降，從2017年的2.37下降到2100年的1.66。這遠(yuǎn)低于維持人口水平所需的最低生育率（平均每位女性2.1的生育率）。