文/彼得·克拉克 譯/阮沚萱

The concept of inflation applies to other goods besides money.Inflation is related to the Law of Supply and Demand.As the supply of a commodity increases, the value decreases.Conversely, as the commodity becomes more scarce, its value increases.This same concept is also applicable to tangible items such as vintage baseball cards and rare art.These are rare commodities that cannot be authentically replicated and therefore command1command 應(yīng)得；博得；值得。a high value on the market.On the other hand, mass-produced rookie cards2rookie card 籃球新秀卡，印有籃球新秀的球星卡，通常在球員初登賽場的賽季發(fā)售。一名球員往往擁有十幾年的職業(yè)生涯，因此新秀賽季就會(huì)顯得尤為珍貴，而新秀卡的意義就是記錄一名球員從職業(yè)生涯起點(diǎn)出發(fā)時(shí)的模樣。如今，許多已經(jīng)功成名就的超級(jí)球星，他們新秀卡的價(jià)格往往十分高昂。and replications of Monet’s work are plentiful.As a result, they yield little value on the market.

通貨膨脹的概念也適用于貨幣之外的其他商品。通貨膨脹與供求定理有關(guān)——商品供給增加，價(jià)格下跌；反之，商品越短缺，價(jià)格就升得越高。這一概念也適用于有形物品，譬如老式棒球卡和稀有藝術(shù)品。 這類稀有商品都無法完全復(fù)制，因此在市場上具有很高的價(jià)值。另一方面，量產(chǎn)的籃球新秀卡和莫奈作品的復(fù)制品數(shù)量眾多，因此它們?cè)谑袌錾暇蜎]什么價(jià)值。

2通貨膨脹和與之原理相反的通貨緊縮同樣適用于無形商品。從就業(yè)市場來看，這一點(diǎn)相當(dāng)明顯。需要稀有或非凡技能的工作往往薪水更高。不過，也有不受歡迎的工作由于存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或缺乏吸引力，會(huì)額外給予補(bǔ)償性工資。這類工作之所以報(bào)酬高是因?yàn)槿狈υ敢饨邮芟嚓P(guān)職位的勞動(dòng)者，而不是因?yàn)閯趧?dòng)者掌握了所需技能。

2Inflation and the opposite principle of deflation can also apply to intangible goods.When looking at the job market,this becomes quite evident.Jobs that require skills that are rare or exceptional tend to pay higher wages.However,there are also compensating differentials3補(bǔ)償性工資差異，有的就業(yè)崗位具有令人不快的特征，廠商為了額外補(bǔ)償受雇于這類崗位的勞動(dòng)者所遭受的生理、心理及經(jīng)濟(jì)損失而導(dǎo)致的工資差異。具體來說，導(dǎo)致不同就業(yè)崗位之間產(chǎn)生補(bǔ)償性工資差異的原因有不同的工傷及死亡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、薪資結(jié)構(gòu)中不同的附加福利、不同的社會(huì)聲譽(yù)、不同的工作地點(diǎn)、懸殊的工作環(huán)境等。that arise because of the risky or unattractive nature of undesirable jobs.The higher wages are due to a lack of workers willing to accept the position rather than the possession of skills that are in demand.

The signaling function of college degrees

3Over the past couple of decades,credentialing of intangible employment value has become more prevalent.Credentials can range from college degrees to professional certifications.One of the most common forms of credentialing has become a 4-year college degree.This category of human capital4human capital 人力資本，區(qū)別于物質(zhì)資本的另一種形態(tài)的資本。通過在教育、培訓(xùn)、健康、移民等方面的投資，人們獲得能夠帶來收入增長的知識(shí)、技能、經(jīng)驗(yàn)和體力等能力。documentation has evolved to take on an alternate function.

大學(xué)學(xué)位的“信號(hào)功能”

3過去幾十年來，認(rèn)證無形的就業(yè)價(jià)值愈發(fā)盛行。證書種類從大學(xué)學(xué)位證書到職業(yè)證書，不一而足。最常見的認(rèn)證形式之一便是四年制學(xué)士學(xué)位證書。這類人力資本憑證已經(jīng)演化出其他功能。

4Outside of a few notable exceptions, a bachelor’s degree serves a signaling function.As George Mason economics professor Bryan Caplan argues, the function of a college degree is primarily to signal to potential employers that a job applicant has desirable characteristics.Earning a college degree is more of a validation process than a skill-building process.Employers desire workers that are not only intelligent but also compliant and punctual.The premise of the signaling model seems to be validated by the fact that many graduates are not using their degrees.In fact, in 2013, only 27 percent of graduates had a job related to their major.

4除了個(gè)別特例，學(xué)士學(xué)位通常具備“信號(hào)功能”。喬治·梅森大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授布賴恩·卡普蘭稱，大學(xué)學(xué)位的主要作用是向潛在雇主表明求職者具備理想的特征。獲得大學(xué)學(xué)位更像是一個(gè)驗(yàn)證過程，而不是技能培養(yǎng)過程。雇主希望員工不僅聰明，而且順從、守時(shí)。許多畢業(yè)生沒能用上他們的學(xué)位證書，這似乎證實(shí)了信號(hào)模型的假設(shè)。事實(shí)上，2013 年僅有27%的畢業(yè)生找到了與自己專業(yè)相關(guān)的工作。

5Since bachelor’s degrees carry a significant signaling function, there have been substantial increases in the number of job seekers possessing a 4-year degree.Retention rates5此處指新生保有率（freshman retention rate），即第一學(xué)年結(jié)束后，決定留在大學(xué)繼續(xù)學(xué)習(xí)的學(xué)生占比。for 4-year institutions reached an all-time high of 81 percent in 2017.In 1940, 4.2 million Americans were 4-year college graduates.Today, 99.5 million Americans have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher.

5由于學(xué)士學(xué)位承載著重要的信號(hào)功能，擁有四年制學(xué)士學(xué)位的求職者人數(shù)大幅增加。2017 年，四年制本科的新生保有率創(chuàng)歷史新高，達(dá)到81%。1940 年，有420 萬美國人是四年制本科畢業(yè)生。如今，9950萬美國人獲得了學(xué)士及以上學(xué)位。

寶寶生病的時(shí)候，發(fā)熱只是疾病的表象，疾病的嚴(yán)重程度和發(fā)熱的高低有時(shí)關(guān)系并不是很大，倒是寶寶的精神狀態(tài)很重要，這點(diǎn)爸爸媽媽天天帶寶寶應(yīng)該能注意到，精神狀態(tài)不好的時(shí)候擔(dān)心有其他并發(fā)癥，需立即就醫(yī)。

6Today, nearly 40 percent of all Americans hold a 4-year degree.Considering the vast increase in college attendance and completion, it’s fair to question if a college degree has retained its “purchasing power” on the job market.Much of the evidence seems to suggest that it has not.

6當(dāng)前，有近 40% 的美國人擁有四年制學(xué)士學(xué)位?？紤]到大學(xué)入學(xué)率和畢業(yè)率大幅上升，有理由質(zhì)疑大學(xué)學(xué)位是否在就業(yè)市場上保有其 “購買力”。似乎有很多證據(jù)表明，大學(xué)學(xué)位的“購買力”已經(jīng)打折。

What is credential inflation?

7The signaling function of college degrees may have been distorted by the phenomenon known as credential inflation.Credential inflation is nothing more than “… an increase in the education credentials required for a job.”

8Many jobs that previously required no more than a high school diploma are now only accepting applicants with bachelor’s degrees.This shift in credential preferences among employers has now made the 4-year degree the unofficial minimum standard for educational requirements.This fact is embodied in the high rates of underemployment6underemployment 不充分就業(yè)，指在法定勞動(dòng)年齡內(nèi)，勞動(dòng)時(shí)間少于法定工作時(shí)間，且勞動(dòng)報(bào)酬低于當(dāng)?shù)刈畹凸べY標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、高于城市居民最低生活保險(xiǎn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，而本人愿意從事更多工作的就業(yè)狀態(tài)。among college graduates.Approximately 41 percent of all recent graduates are working jobs that do not require a college degree.It is shocking when you consider that 17 percent of hotel clerks and 23.5 percent of amusement park attendants hold 4-year degrees.None of these jobs have traditionally required a college degree.But due to a competitive job market where most applicants have degrees, many recent graduates have no means of distinguishing themselves from other potential employees.Thus,many recent graduates have no other options but to accept low-paying jobs.

9The value of a college degree has gone down due to the vast increase in the number of workers who possess degrees.This form of debasement mimics the effect of printing more money.The hordes of guidance counselors and parents urging kids to attend college have certainly contributed to the problem.However, public policy has served to amplify this issue.

“證書通脹”是什么？

7所謂的“證書通脹”現(xiàn)象或已扭曲大學(xué)學(xué)位的信號(hào)功能。證書通脹無非是指“某一職位所需的學(xué)歷證書增加?！?/p>

8許多職位以前僅需要高中或高中以下的文憑，現(xiàn)在卻只接納擁有學(xué)士學(xué)位的求職者。雇主對(duì)文憑的偏好發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變，使得四年制學(xué)士學(xué)位成為非正式的最低學(xué)歷要求。大學(xué)畢業(yè)生不充分就業(yè)率高的現(xiàn)象印證了這一事實(shí)。約 41% 的應(yīng)屆畢業(yè)生正在從事不需要大學(xué)學(xué)位的工作。想想看，17%的酒店職員和 23.5%的游樂園服務(wù)員擁有四年制學(xué)士學(xué)位，是不是令人咋舌？這些工作原本無一需要大學(xué)學(xué)位，但由于就業(yè)市場競爭激烈，大多數(shù)求職者都擁有學(xué)位，許多應(yīng)屆畢業(yè)生無法從其他潛在員工中脫穎而出。因此，很多應(yīng)屆畢業(yè)生別無選擇，只得接受低薪工作。

9由于擁有大學(xué)學(xué)位的勞動(dòng)者人數(shù)大幅增加，大學(xué)學(xué)位的價(jià)值下跌。這種貶值形式能產(chǎn)生與“多印鈔票”類似的效果。指導(dǎo)顧問和家長一窩蜂地敦促孩子上大學(xué)，這無疑是導(dǎo)致學(xué)位貶值的原因之一。不過，公共政策也加劇了這一問題。

10Various kinds of loan programs,government scholarships, and other programs have incentivized more students to pursue college degrees.Policies that make college more accessible—proposals for “free college,” for example—also devalue degrees.More people attending college makes degrees even more common and further depreciated.

11Of course, this is not to say brilliant students with aspirations of a career in STEM7科學(xué)（Science）、技術(shù)（Technology）、工程（Engineering）、數(shù)學(xué)（Mathematics）四門學(xué)科英文首字母的縮寫。fields should avoid college.But for the average student, a college degree may very well be a malinvestment and hinder their future.

12Incurring large amounts of debt to work for minimum wage is not a wise decision.When faced with policies and social pressure that have made college the norm, students should recognize that a college degree isn’t everything.If students focused more on obtaining marketable skills than on credentials, they might find a way to stand out in a job market flooded with degrees.■

10種種貸款項(xiàng)目、政府獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金和其他項(xiàng)目激勵(lì)更多的學(xué)生去攻讀大學(xué)學(xué)位。讓大學(xué)更好進(jìn)的政策，諸如“免費(fèi)大學(xué)”的提議，同樣使學(xué)位貶值。上大學(xué)的人越多，學(xué)位就越常見，進(jìn)而越會(huì)貶值。

11當(dāng)然，這并不是說有志在科學(xué)、技術(shù)、工程和數(shù)學(xué)領(lǐng)域一展宏圖的優(yōu)秀學(xué)生不應(yīng)該上大學(xué)。但對(duì)于普通學(xué)生來說，攻讀大學(xué)學(xué)位很可能是一筆不當(dāng)?shù)耐顿Y，會(huì)阻礙他們未來的發(fā)展。

12做拿著最低工資的工作，卻要背負(fù)巨額債務(wù)，這并非明智之舉。在面對(duì)使大學(xué)“常態(tài)化”的政策和社會(huì)壓力時(shí)，學(xué)生應(yīng)該認(rèn)識(shí)到大學(xué)學(xué)位不是萬能的。如果學(xué)生多去關(guān)注如何獲得適應(yīng)市場的技能，而非只關(guān)注學(xué)歷證書，他們可能會(huì)找到從學(xué)位證書泛濫的就業(yè)市場中脫穎而出的方法。 □