廖鵬程

The automobile has long been a symbol of everything great and everything terrible about America. On the one hand： freedom， individualism， power， speed. The taming of millions of miles of varied wildernesses through roads， then highways， then interstates. The capacity of American industry—Pittsburghs steel， Akrons rubber， Detroits factories.

But on the other hand： gas-guzzling1） SUVs. Traffic and sprawl. The abandonment of mass transit. The decline of the Rust Belt2）， the near-collapse of the Big Three automakers3） during the Great Recession of 2008， and the slow death of American manufacturing and blue-collar work.

Now， after four decades of doldrums4）， things are looking up5） for American carmakers， in ways that would have been hard to imagine just 10 years ago. Yet the changes ahead wont reconcile the great and the terrible of the past； instead， the conflicts between freedom and community， power and equity， will play out in new ways. Heres what that future will look like.

1. Baby Steps Toward Autonomy …

Google， Tesla， and Uber—companies that didnt even exist when Toyota introduced the Prius， in 1997—have become major players in the auto industry. Both Google and Tesla aim to introduce fully autonomous cars—that is， cars that drive themselves—within the next several years， and Uber recently founded an R&D center in Pittsburgh with an eye toward6） ushering in our driverless future.

Self-driving cars are expected to be much safer than human-driven ones. But even if the first robot cars hit the roads in the next few years， most of us probably wont give up driving entirely for at least another 15 or 20 years. In the meantime， traditional cars will gradually take over certain aspects of driving.

Companies have been adding semiautonomous features to cars since the 1990s—things like adaptive cruise control， which uses sensors to adjust a cars speed based on the traffic in front of it， and automated parallel parking. Some cars automatically stop—or at least slow down—if a driver doesnt step on the brake in time to avoid a collision， and in certain 2017 Mercedes-Benz models， the driver will be able to change lanes simply by hitting the turn signal for two seconds （the car will take care of the rest）. Within a few years， cars may be able to determine when an accident is likely and make adjustments to the cabin—moving seats， closing windows， retracting the steering wheel.

Even better than preparing for a crash， of course， is preventing one. Some vehicles emit warnings when they detect， via cameras and sensors， that a driver is getting drowsy. Future cars might take over for sleepy drivers—or automatically pull to the side of the road and shut down. Biometrics could aid this process. If a car has sensors that can measure a drivers respiration and heart rate， it could shift into self-driving mode when a driver has a heart attack or passes out.

2. … And Big Leaps

While traditional manufacturers slowly add semiautonomous features， Tesla is taking a more aggressive approach. Last year， an update to the software in certain Model S vehicles added the ability to operate via “autopilot7）”： The car mostly drives itself， but the driver can take over if， for example， the car attempts to exit the freeway unbidden—as it did during some runs soon after it was introduced last year. Each time a driver intervenes， Tesla registers the correction in its software， which is distributed across its fleet. The idea is that over time， the cars will get better at driving.

Teslas autopilot occupies a regulatory gray area， since updates to a cars software dont require the National Highway Traffic Safety Administrations approval—though that could change as the agency rules catch up with technology. Ford or GM would likely never have put such an untested system into service， but Teslas tech-forward8） customers seem willing to take the risk， even if those of us who have to share the road with them would rather they didnt.

Early this year， Tesla updated its software again to add a way to “summon” your car. The car can turn itself on， open the garage door， and meet you in the driveway like an automotive butler. For now， the feature is meant to be used only on private property， but Tesla promises Knight Rider-style9） summoning in the future： Your car will greet you at the airport when you return from a trip or sync with your calendar and know where to pick you up after a meeting downtown.

3. Cars That Talk to One Another

Apps like Waze already allow drivers to alert others to traffic jams or accidents. Soon， cars will automatically contribute to a shared mesh10） of traffic and routing information through vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems. In addition to providing better traffic reports， these systems—through which cars will constantly transmit their location， speed， and other data—are expected to make driving much safer. If a driver brakes suddenly， or makes a blind turn， the car will issue a warning to others nearby to help them avoid a collision. The NHTSA expects vehicle-to-vehicle communications to result in significantly fewer accidents each year.

4. The Car as Conference Room

Once cars become fully autonomous， they wont need to take the form they have for more than a century. One concept design is the Mercedes-Benz F 015， which transforms the vehicle into a “digital living space.” Inside， seats swivel to face one another， and a series of displays permit passengers to entertain themselves or work. In other words， cars could double as conference rooms—and employers may begin to demand that people use their commutes productively.

The F 015 design is sleek11） and beautiful—it looks like a silver bullet—but style may become passé12） in future cars. Autonomous cars work best as fleets rather than as private property， because a car that can drive itself can be put to use even when you arent in it， and the tech companies making them prefer to sell services rather than products. Eventually， car ownership could become a thing of the past.

That would mean an end to the pride and personalization of owning a car. Perhaps the garage， that great cornerstone of suburban architecture， will become a relic. Likewise parking spaces and lots， freeing up valuable real estate for greener and denser urban living. （Meanwhile， the exurbs could prosper if people no longer dread a long drive to work.） Your children might give as little thought to the kind of car they ride in as you do to the brand of subway train you take.

As idyllic as it might seem not to have to finance， drive， or park a car， there will be downsides. Once autonomous vehicles are everywhere， letting humans share the roads as pedestrians， bicyclists， or drivers could be seen as too dangerous. Driving conventions like traffic lights and dedicated turn lanes could become obsolete， and transit could develop into a puzzled web of robotics that no human brain can navigate.

5. Where Are the Flying Cars？

Flying cars have been part of our science-fiction dreams ever since Henry Ford13） pitched an early personal airplane back in 1926—Fords aircraft division actually tried to build a “Model T of the air.” Ninety years later， discarded prototypes litter junkyards and collectors garages， but no viable mass-market product has ever emerged.

That might still change. The latest candidates include Skycar， a flying-car prototype， and the Ehang 184， an autonomous electric quadcopter introduced at the 2016 Consumer Electronics Show， in Las Vegas. In 2013， a company called Terrafugia announced plans for a self-flying car； it expects to have a prototype ready for testing by 2018. A commercial model will take at least another five years.

When they do arrive， flying cars will likely cost at least several hundred thousand dollars. They may replace the Lamborghini or the Bentley as the status car of the super rich. But for most of us theyll remain a dream， even if not a science-fiction one.

長期以來，汽車一直既代表了美國所有了不起的東西，又代表了美國所有糟糕的東西。一方面：它代表自由、個人主義、力量和速度。行駛在道路、公路、州際公路上，汽車征服了綿延數(shù)百萬英里的各種荒野之地。它還代表著美國的工業(yè)產(chǎn)能——匹茲堡的鋼鐵、亞克朗市的橡膠、底特律的汽車工廠。

而另一方面導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果是：油老虎SUV車型出現(xiàn)；交通堵塞，城市無計劃擴(kuò)張；公共交通被拋棄；鐵銹地帶衰落；三大汽車制造商在2008年經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣時幾近垮臺，以及美國制造業(yè)和藍(lán)領(lǐng)階層逐漸消亡。

而現(xiàn)在，歷經(jīng)40年的消沉之后，對美國汽車制造商來說，局面又有了轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)。在10年前，這都是難以想象的。然而，過去好的一面和壞的一面不會因為未來的變化而調(diào)和。相反，自由與集體、權(quán)力與公平間的沖突會以新的方式演繹。未來可能會是下面這樣的。

1.自動駕駛蹣跚邁步

谷歌、特斯拉、優(yōu)步，這些在1997年豐田推出普銳斯這款車時根本就不存在的公司現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)成為汽車工業(yè)的主角。谷歌和特斯拉的目標(biāo)都是要在未來幾年內(nèi)推出全自動駕駛汽車，也就是會自己駕駛的汽車。優(yōu)步公司近期在匹茲堡成立了研發(fā)中心，意圖在未來的無人駕駛技術(shù)方面走在前沿。

自動駕駛的汽車預(yù)計要比人類駕駛的汽車安全得多。但是即便第一批機(jī)器人汽車能幾年之內(nèi)上路，我們大部分人很可能仍不會完全放棄自己開車，至少在此后15至20年內(nèi)不會。與此同時，傳統(tǒng)汽車會逐漸接管駕駛的某些方面。

自20世紀(jì)90年代以來，汽車制造商一直在給汽車增加半自動化功能，比如自適應(yīng)巡航控制功能和自動平行泊車功能。自適應(yīng)巡航控制技術(shù)利用感應(yīng)器，根據(jù)前方的交通狀況來調(diào)整汽車速度。如果駕駛員未能及時踩剎車以避免撞車，有些汽車會自動停車，起碼會自動減速。在梅賽德斯-奔馳的某些2017款的車型中，駕駛員只需按住轉(zhuǎn)向按鈕兩秒便能夠進(jìn)行變道（汽車會完成剩下的工作）。幾年之內(nèi)，汽車或許就能夠判斷什么時候可能發(fā)生事故，并對車艙進(jìn)行調(diào)整——移動座位、關(guān)車窗、回撤方向盤。

防備相撞事故發(fā)生當(dāng)然不錯，但更好的還是要防止事故發(fā)生。有些車輛通過攝像頭和傳感器發(fā)現(xiàn)駕駛員昏昏欲睡時，會隨即發(fā)出警報。未來汽車可能會代替瞌睡的駕駛?cè)硕詣玉{駛，或是自動開到路邊然后熄火。生物測定學(xué)能夠為這一過程提供幫助。汽車如果裝有能測量駕駛員呼吸和心率的傳感器，當(dāng)汽車駕駛員心臟病發(fā)作或暈厥時，它能夠進(jìn)入自動駕駛模式。

2……接下來的大飛躍

在傳統(tǒng)汽車制造商緩慢增加半自動功能時，特斯拉采取的是一種更加激進(jìn)的策略。在特斯拉去年的一次車載軟件更新中，S款的一些車輛增加了通過“自動駕駛”進(jìn)行操作的功能。車輛主要是靠自動駕駛，但駕駛員也可以控制方向盤，比如在汽車未經(jīng)許可就試圖駛離高速公路的情況下——去年在這一功能引入后不久，車輛在使用這一模式時就發(fā)生過這樣的情況。駕駛員每進(jìn)行一次干預(yù)，特斯拉就將糾錯情況記錄到配置在其系列車型的軟件中。這么做的意圖是，希望隨著時間的推移，汽車會變得更加善于駕駛。

但是，特斯拉的自動駕駛技術(shù)處于監(jiān)管的灰色區(qū)域，因為更新車輛軟件不需要美國國家公路交通安全管理局的批準(zhǔn)。不過隨著該機(jī)構(gòu)的法規(guī)跟上技術(shù)發(fā)展的腳步，這一局面也可能改變。福特或是通用汽車很可能永遠(yuǎn)也不會將這樣一個未經(jīng)測試的系統(tǒng)投入運營，但是特斯拉那些技術(shù)前衛(wèi)的客戶們似乎愿意冒這種風(fēng)險，雖然我們中那些不得不跟他們共享道路的人寧愿他們不要這么做。

今年年初，特斯拉再次對其軟件進(jìn)行了更新，增加了一種車輛“召喚”功能。汽車能夠自動啟動，打開車庫門，然后自己開到車道上跟你會合，就像汽車管家一樣。這一功能暫時還只可用于私人地產(chǎn)內(nèi)，但是特斯拉許諾未來會提供“霹靂游俠”那樣的召喚功能：外出回來時你的車子會去機(jī)場接你，或是跟你的日程同步，當(dāng)你在市區(qū)開完會后知道去哪兒接你。

3.會彼此交流的汽車

像Waze這樣的應(yīng)用程序已經(jīng)能讓駕駛?cè)颂嵝阉俗⒁饨煌ǘ氯蚴墙煌ㄊ鹿?。很快，汽車便能通過車對車通訊系統(tǒng)，自動為交通和路線信息共享網(wǎng)絡(luò)提供訊息。除了能夠提供更好的交通信息報道之外，這些通訊系統(tǒng)還可以讓汽車不斷地發(fā)送各自的位置、速度以及其他數(shù)據(jù)，因而可望讓駕駛變得更加安全。如果駕駛員突然剎車，或是通過看不見另一頭的急轉(zhuǎn)彎路段時，汽車會向附近的其他車輛發(fā)出警告，幫助它們避免發(fā)生碰撞。美國國家公路交通安全管理局預(yù)計，車對車通訊會讓每年的交通事故明顯減少。

4.汽車當(dāng)會議室

汽車一旦完全自動化，就不需要再采用現(xiàn)在這種已延續(xù)了一百多年的形狀。奔馳F 015概念車就是一個例子。該車將汽車變成了“數(shù)字生活空間”，車內(nèi)的座位可以旋轉(zhuǎn)，乘客可以相向而坐，各種顯示屏可以讓乘坐者選擇娛樂放松或是工作。換句話說，汽車可身兼兩職，作為會議室使用，而老板們可能會開始要求員工高效利用他們的通勤時間了。

F 015的設(shè)計優(yōu)雅又美觀，看上去像一顆銀色的子彈，但是對未來汽車而言，款式可能會變成一種過時的東西。自動駕駛汽車用作車隊使用時才能發(fā)揮最佳效能，而非用作私人財產(chǎn)，因為即便你不在車內(nèi)，一輛可以自動駕駛的汽車仍然可以投入使用，而制造汽車的科技公司會更愿意賣服務(wù)而非產(chǎn)品。最終，擁有汽車會成為過去的事。

特拉弗吉亞的自我飛行汽車

這會意味著，擁有汽車不再能帶來自豪感，也不再體現(xiàn)個性。車庫這一郊區(qū)建筑的偉大基石也有可能會變成遺跡。停車區(qū)和停車場也一樣，從而釋放出高價值的地皮，使都市生活更綠色，人口更稠密。（同時，如果人們不再擔(dān)心要開車開很遠(yuǎn)去上班的話，遠(yuǎn)郊可能會繁榮起來。）你的孩子可能根本不會考慮他們乘坐的是哪種車，就跟你根本不在乎你所乘地鐵的品牌一樣。

不用出錢買車，不用自己駕駛，也不需要泊車，似乎跟田園詩一般美好，但是這也有其不好的一面。一旦到處都是自動駕駛汽車，人類與之共用同樣的道路行走、騎自行車或自己駕車，可能會被視為是過于危險的行為。諸如交通信號燈、專用轉(zhuǎn)彎車道之

類的駕駛法規(guī)可能被淘汰，交通可能發(fā)展成一個由機(jī)器人組成的復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)，人腦都無法駕馭。

5.距離會飛的汽車還遙遠(yuǎn)嗎？

自1926年亨利·福特大張旗鼓宣傳其早期的個人飛機(jī)以來，會飛的汽車一直是我們科幻夢的一部分內(nèi)容。福特的飛機(jī)部門真的曾試圖建造一種“空中T型車”。90年過后，廢棄的原型車散落在各個垃圾場和收藏家的倉庫里，而真正可靠的大眾市場產(chǎn)品還從未出現(xiàn)。

這種情況也可能會發(fā)生改變。最新的候選方案就有“天空汽車”，一種飛行汽車的原型車；還有“億航184”，在2016年的拉斯維加斯消費電子產(chǎn)品展上介紹過的一種自動電子四旋翼直升機(jī)。2013年，一家名叫特拉弗吉亞的公司公布了生產(chǎn)自我飛行汽車的計劃，預(yù)計到2018年生產(chǎn)出可用于測試的原型車。商業(yè)型最少還需再等五年時間。

當(dāng)飛行汽車真的面世時，一輛車的耗資最少可能也得數(shù)十萬美元。這種車可能會取代蘭博基尼或賓利，成為象征超級富豪身份的汽車。但是，對我們大多數(shù)人而言，它仍將只是一個夢，即便不是一個科幻夢。

1.gas-guzzling [?ɡas?ɡ?z（?）l??] adj.〈美口〉（汽車發(fā)動機(jī)等）非常耗油的，耗油量大的，吞油的

2.Rust Belt：鐵銹地帶，指在美國等國家原先有大量制造廠而現(xiàn)在面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)困難的地區(qū)。

3.the Big Three automakers：指美國汽車制造商福特、克萊斯勒和通用汽車

4.doldrums [?d?ldr?mz] n. [復(fù)] （工商業(yè)、藝術(shù)創(chuàng)作活動等的）停滯；低潮；蕭條時期

5.look up：好轉(zhuǎn)（尤指價格上升或市場活躍）；有起色

6.with an eye toward：試圖；有……的企圖；期待

7.autopilot [???t???pa?l?t] n. [航]自動駕駛儀

8.tech-forward：技術(shù)前衛(wèi)的

9.Knight Rider-style：指具有像美劇《霹靂游俠》中先進(jìn)的智能跑車KITT那樣的功能。

10.mesh [me?] n. 網(wǎng)；網(wǎng)狀物

11.sleek [sli?k] adj. （外形）線條流暢的

12.passé [?pɑ?se?] adj.〈法〉過時的；落伍的

13.Henry Ford：亨利·福特（1863～1947），美國汽車工程師與企業(yè)家，福特汽車公司的建立者。他是世界上第一位使用流水線大批量生產(chǎn)汽車的人。他的生產(chǎn)方式使汽車成為一種大眾產(chǎn)品。