TIAN Gang，ZHANG Xiyuan，WU Tianbo

(College of Economics and Management，Northeast Forestry University，Harbin 150040 China)

Influence Factors on Exporting Wooden Furniture from China to America：Based on Gray Correlation Analysis

TIAN Gang，ZHANG Xiyuan，WU Tianbo

(College of Economics and Management，Northeast Forestry University，Harbin 150040 China)

Background With the rapid growth of Chinese economy，the development of Sino-US wooden furniture industry is in the ascendant．Chinese wooden furniture focus on OEM production，commodity technology is not in a high level and the export trade will be limited by importing country policies．The United States put forward anti-dumping investigation and litigation on Chinese bedroom wooden furniture in 2003 and collected high anti-dumping duties of wooden furniture．Therefore，China’s export on wooden furniture to the United States was suppressed，and China’s raw materials and labor costs were increasing．This phenomenon stunted the long-term development of wooden furniture trade．

Methods In this paper，data sources were selected from China Labor Statistical Yearbook，National Bureau of Statistics，F(xiàn)orestry Development Report，China Furniture Yearbook，the US Census Bureau，World Bank and Business Information System；and gray correlation degree analysis method was used to calculate the influencing factors；and the results were ranked according to the absolute，relative and comprehensive correlation degree．The gray comprehensive correlation degree was used as the final explanation．The choice of time span takes into account the availability of data，the latest data information from sources such as the UN comtrade database and the Statistical Yearbook，and the final selection of 2003 to 2014．

Results The result of quantitative analysis shows that the cost has a direct influence on the exporting level of Sino-US wooden furniture．Five categories of production cost are more than 0.6，the highest is the international crude oil prices，reaching 0.892 5，and the lowest is the total supply of timber in China，reaching 0.660 7．With the increase of international crude oil price，promoting the price of wooden furniture freight rise，which has a negative impact on the development of Sino-US wooden furniture trade．The market demand has a significant influence on the export of wooden furniture，China and the US real estate sales are the main factors affect the export trade of wooden furniture．With increased residents’ income level in China and the United States，promoting furniture demand increased．Two countries policies of wooden furniture also impact on exporting trade development，Chinese direct investment in American forestry comprehensive correlation is 0.647 9．With deepening policy of the going out strategy，China has become second largest real estate investment country in the world，and the investment mainly concentrated in the US market，so that indirectly promoting Chinese exports to the US wood furniture trade．Stability of RMB exchange rate will help increase exports of wooden furniture．Stable exchange rate may create a good trading environment；it will be contributed to China’s exports to the US wood furniture trade growth．

Conclusions and Discussions The cost of wooden furniture and the market demand of China and the United States are the main factors influencing the export of Chinese wooden furniture to America．The changes of Sino-US economic cooperation and related policies will have a significant impact on Sino-US wooden furniture trade．Therefore，it is urgent to solve the problem of increasing China’s domestic artificial forest，stimulating domestic market demand and strengthening forestry economic cooperation between China and the United States．Proposed to consolidate the traditional US market，increase Sino-US forestry trade and investment cooperation，increase the domestic plantation area，commercial forest production rate and forest certification area，leading the supply and demand of wooden furniture to the healthy track．

wooden furniture；gray correlation；export trade；influence factor

Original Articlein田剛，張曦元，吳天博．中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口木質(zhì)家具影響因素研究：基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析法．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題，2017，37(2)：75-78．

10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.02.014