Amid drastic changes in the Middle East over the past few years,Russia’s policy toward the Middle East has attracted extensive international attention.Adjustment of Russia’s Middle East policy has a major impact not only on the Middle East,but also on Eurasia.Moreover,Russia’s foreign policy has a profound influence over the domestic situation of Russia under Putin’s administration.

I.The Status Quo of Russia’s Middle East Policy

During the Cold War,the Middle East with a protruding geo importance was a major region where the US and the Soviet Union were locked in fierce contention,with the Soviet Union representing one of the major political forces in the region.In the 1990s,with the disintegration of the Soviet Union,Russia’s power and influence in the Middle East was so reduced that it has mainly played the part as a major “mediator” in the region.This paper is going to analyze the status quo of Russia’s Middle East policy from three perspectives,namely its relations with the Arab states,its relations with Iran and Turkey,and its relations with Israel.

A.Russia’s relations with the Arab states.First of all,the Syrian crisis has provided Russia with an important opportunity to return to the Middle East.Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis,Russia’s policy toward Syria has undergone three phases.The first phase lasted from March of 2011 to September of 2015,when Russia was preparing for a role transformation from “engaging in mediation” to “getting ready for military intervention”.The second phase lasted from the end of September of 2015 to the end of December of 2017,when Russia was pursuing a policy of “military intervention” and getting involved in the Syrian civil war.On September 30,2015,Russia began its military operations in Syria to combat the extremist group ISIS,which much increased Russia’s discourse power on the Syrian issue,the Middle East issue and even on the issue of USRussia cooperation.The third phase lasted from 2018 till today,when Russia is mainly making active diplomatic efforts to lead and shape the post-Syrian-crisis peace process.In March of 2016 and December of 2017,Russia withdrew its main military forces from Syria.In February of 2020,Russian President Putin expressed his support for the idea of convening a quadrilateral meeting among Russia,Turkey,Germany and France in an attempt to eliminate differences through diplomatic efforts.

Secondly,Russia’s relations with Egypt is further warming up.In February of 2015,Putin returned a visit to Egypt when the two countries struck a big deal to construct Egypt’s first nuclear power plant,while Putin praised Egypt as Russia’s “trusted partner”.In terms of military cooperation,Russian Air Force and Egyptian Air Force conducted a joint military exercise code-named as “Arrow of Friendship-1” in Egypt in November of 2019.

Lastly,Russia’s relationship with Saudi Arabia is once again followed closely by the international community.In March of 2020,affected by the COVID-19 pandemic,and with global energy demand declining,a fierce “crude oil price war” broke out again between Russia and Saudi Arabia,with the two countries insisting on increasing their respective oil output while engaging in negotiations.As a country from outside of the region,Russia plays a pivotal role in the benefit game over the Middle East affairs.

B.Russia’s relations with Iran and Turkey.In August of 2016,Russia used the military bases of a third country for the first time to launch air strikes on targets within Syria,which was also the first time Iran permitted foreign military forces to make a deployment on its territory in its modern history.In November of 2017,Russian President Putin paid a visit to Iran to further elevate Russia’s strategic cooperation with Iran.Currently,Russia’s Iranian policy focuses on maintaining cooperation in security field while boosting economic and trade ties with Iran.

In history,Russia’s relations with Turkey were very complicated,while its present relationship with Turkey features “ups and downs”.In November of 2015,Turkey shot down a Su-24 fighter of Russia,which was the first time that a Soviet’s or Russia’s fighter was shot down by a NOTO member state since 1950s,hence triggering great nationalist sentiments in Russia while sinking the Russia-Turkey relations to bottom.More than half a year later,bilateral relations as well as economic and trade ties between the two countries were elevated due to the apology Turkish President Erdogan made to Russia for shooting down a Russian jet-fighter and the convening of the St.Petersburg summit.However,their relations have turned sour recently as contradictions between them are unprecedentedly intensifying over the “Kurdish issue in Syria” and the “issue of Idlib,a northern province in Syria”.While advocating a quadrilateral meeting,Russia has sent a warning to Turkey,thus raising the risk of conflict between them.

C.Russia’s relations with Israel.Russia’s policy toward Israel stresses on maintaining a benign relationship with Israel as well as keeping a special influence on the Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arabian conflicts so as to attain an overall control of the Middle East situation.Israel is a developed state in the Middle East,with relatively strong military power and intelligence capabilities,and bordering on southern Syria,while having mature coordination and security mechanisms with Russia.In September of 2015,Russian President Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed and designated the scope for cooperation between their countries on the Syrian issue.In 2016,Israel stepped up its involvement in the Syrian affairs.Since then,Israel has had several consultations with Russia in order to keep strategic misjudgment away.After the outbreak of the Syrian crisis,Netanyahu paid multiple visits to Russia to strengthen bilateral coordination.On January 23,2020,Putin paid a visit to Israel.On January 28,2020,US President Trump unveiled the Middle East Peace Plan to promote the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue,two days after which Netanyahu paid a visit to Russia to listen to Russia’s opinion about the Peace Plan,while claiming Putin was the first state leader he met with after the publicity of the Peace Plan by the US,which indicates the important position Russia has held in the Middle East peace process.

II.Major-Country Game and Strategic Changes in the Middle East

The Middle East witnesses not only game among major-countries of the world,but also contention among major regional powers,which has resulted in accelerated regional strategic realignment as well as regional and global disorder.

Currently,the US remains the dominant force in the Middle East strategic landscape.After coming to office in January of 2017,US President Trump gradually changed the Middle East policy of the US pursued by the Obama administration.The Middle East policy upheld by the Trump administration manifests two major features: on the one hand,the US gives more support to its traditional allies in the region such as Israel; one the other hand,it steps up suppression on Iran.In December of 2017,the US announced its recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved its embassy to Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem; and in January of 2020,President Trump unveiled his New Middle East Peace Plan.As soon as the Peace Plan was publicized,Palestine expressed its rejection,and later on severed communications with Israel and the US.For Iran,the US withdrew in May of 2018 from the Iranian nuclear deal concluded in 2015,while returning to a highly-tensed confrontation with Iran.In November of 2018,the US announced a full restoration of unilateral sanctions against Iran,focusing on Iran’s economic lifeline ---- energy domain,which has hurt Iran’s national economy badly.The escalating confrontation between the US and Iran as well as the Middle East strategy pursed by the Trump administration have sped up the change of the Middle East strategic pattern.

Of the influences exerted by major-countries on the Middle East,Russia’s is relatively great on the development of situation in the Middle East.In the future,Russia will stay in game with the US in the Middle East without “splitting up”,which will,in a large part,affect the strategic development of the Middle East.Due to close geo connections and security considerations,the EU has always been trying to maintain close ties with the Middle East states.In the Syrian situation after 2020,the Russia-Turkey talks and the quadrilateral talks among France,Germany,Russia and Turkey will be followed closely by the international community.Prolonged conflicts and violation of rules in the Middle East have resulted in serious missing of mutual trust among states in the region,thus extending both the time and space dimensions of the changes and chaos in the Middle East.

III.Features of and Challenges to Russia’s Middle East Policy

With the momentum of Russia’s involvement in the Middle East affairs increasing,diplomacy,as an important tool of Russia’s foreign policy,is playing a bigger part.In the wake of the Ukrainian crisis,Russia is attempting to leverage the “impasse” of its relations with the West through diplomatic efforts on the geostrategic stage of the Middle East.The chief features of Russia’s Middle East policy is mainly reflected in the fact that it can play a role in chaos and disorder,and ensure Russia’s strategic interests.Through military intervention,and taking advantages of regional conflicts and changes to gain benefits from either side,Russia has built a favorable stand for itself in reshaping the regional situation.No matter how the situation in Syria changes in the future,it will not go without the important role played by Russia.

The Middle East policy of Russia has also manifested pragmatism in recent years,as evident in its relations with Iran and Turkey respectively,indicating Russia has taken a pragmatic approach,both firm and flexible,to protect and seek for its interests in the Middle East.Russia’s Middle East policy is an important manifestation of its diplomacy,while closely connected with its domestic politics in an interplaying manner.With the confidence as a major-country restored in Russia,Russian populace has generally become identified with its foreign policies.But Russia is still facing multiple problems and challenges in the Middle East.

First,Russia’s geostrategic game with the US and the EU is intensifying.It is a new trend in contemporary international relations that geopolitics is returning.On the Syrian issue,Russia’s game with the US and the EU will enter a phase featuring multiplying diplomatic approaches.Regarding the Palestinian-Israeli issue,the US introduced the New Middle East Peace Plan in 2020,with the Trump administration showing a marked increase in goodwill and favoritism toward Israel.As a result,this issue will be related to broader agendas in the Middle East.Any new and old hot issue in the region may kindle game among Russia,the US and the EU.

Second,coordination of regional interests is fraught with difficulties.Although Russia has ensured its national interests by pursuing a pragmatic policy in the Middle East,it has run into multiple difficulties in coordinating regional interests.With the US New Middle East Peace Plan publicized,various political forces in the Middle East have become more divided,thus rendering greater diplomatic difficulties to Russia.

Last,Russia is strong in military power and deft in diplomatic skills,and its military forces on the battleground attach great importance to battle victories and diplomatic gains.The arduous challenge Russia faces in the Middle East is to assist Middle East states such as Syria to resolve problems concerning people’s livelihood when the current chaos in the Middle East is subsiding.The globally sweeping COVID-19 pandemic has also badly affected Russia’s economic development.In such a context,Russia’s influence over those Middle East states keen on promoting economic development and resolving problems concerning people’s livelihood in the wake of crisis will be constrained.

The analysis of Russia’s Middle East policy in recent years has indicated that in the process of reshaping and adjusting the world order,Russia has further strengthened its relations with non-Western states and regions,which has boosted the advance of Russia’s involvement in the Middle East both in scale and depth.When summarizing Russia’s diplomatic work in the Middle East last year,Putin said Russia’s position in the Middle East had become more consolidated,as shown by the fact that Russia’s relations with the Middle East states were friendly and pragmatic,some of which even assumed the character of an ally.In the future,Russia will try to maintain its strategic advantages and continue to maneuver in major-country game.

(The author is lecturer at Department of Diplomacy and Foreign Affairs Management,China Foreign Affairs University.This article was received on April 14,2020.)